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China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

Making a massive assumption the Chinese will not take care of the Taiwanese Navy and Air Force in the first few hours, something the US Mil report alludes to. It is a small island, China can easily rain hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles for every single Taiwanese target a concentration levels far surpassing the Gulf War.

I cannot sit at a laptop and say it will be easy, but going by the relative force comparisons right now, it looks very much like a one way fight.

Of course I have not even delved into the comparative quality of Taiwanese personnel but it seems their military seems to be plagued with deep problems in morale, recruitment and retention




The Air Force seem to be struggling even during peacetime



I am no apologise for China, but anyone can see Taiwan cannot defend itself without massive US/Western help. I simply think it's not worth it
You seem very impressed with smart munitions and missiles. I am not privy to taiwanese strategy, but one assumes the military when given some notice of attack, will already have dispersal plans in place and not dissimilar to south korea, have pre-positioned charges to blow runways and harbour facilities.
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
You seem very impressed with smart munitions and missiles. I am not privy to taiwanese strategy, but one assumes the military when given some notice of attack, will already have dispersal plans in place and not dissimilar to south korea, have pre-positioned charges to blow runways and harbour facilities.

Yes, I am impressed with smart munitions, missiles and UAVs, I just saw what the Azeris did to the Armenians.
Taiwan can blow itself up, that will suit the Chinese fine, life will be a tad harder but unsure it will put them off.

Have you seen how small Taiwan is? Dispersal will not give it the protection or results that say Sweden or Finland will have.

Just amazes me you have still not grasped just how more and more one sided this contest gets with each passing year....
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
The PLA Navy would need to be able to make a blockade around Taiwan to ensure air superiority over Taiwan airspace. Without air superiority, PLA assets on Taiwan ground become easy pickings by the USAF and USN aircraft, which then opens the way for US-led ground invasion. Since the worsed had happened, Taiwan changes its official name from ROC to Taiwan.

The Chinese Navy is now the largest in the world. They are on the verge of completing a 85,000 ton CATOBAR carrier (20,000 tons heavier then our QE class). They plan 3 more of these in addition to their two smaller carrier. They already have 3 Wasp class LHDAs and plan for 4 more.

Most of their heavy fighters (SU-30, J-15, J-20) can fly over Taiwan without refuelling.

They will soon have over 50 very modern air defence destroyers

40 Modern frigates

over 60 submarines, half of which can be considered modern and adding around 1 every month

The combined fleet of modern J-10, J-20, J-11, J-15, SU-30 numbers upwards of 1,200 supported by around 20 AEW planes, and around 30 tankers.

The ballistic and cruise missile numbers are absolutely mind boggling.



To match this Taiwan will have

150 F-16s and 40 Mirages. Most people do not bother counting the 100 off F-CK-1s but suppose you can.
The Taiwan navy has around 10 old US Frigates, 5 French frigates and 2 40 year old Dutch submarines.
 
Yes, I am impressed with smart munitions, missiles and UAVs, I just saw what the Azeris did to the Armenians.
Taiwan can blow itself up, that will suit the Chinese fine, life will be a tad harder but unsure it will put them off.

Have you seen how small Taiwan is? Dispersal will not give it the protection or results that say Sweden or Finland will have.

Just amazes me you have still not grasped just how more and more one sided this contest gets with each passing year....
Shock and Awe only works when you apply it over a number of days. What do you think Taiwan/America will be doing during this bombardment ?

If you apply this attack as a H Hour, the loading of Cargo Aircraft and Ships will have to be done a day in advance and would be immediately detected and you lose surprise. Only in fantasy and the movies is a co-ordinated attack possible in complete surprise and that gives Taiwan time to pretty much redeploy much of its equipment and even start to rip up runways on the civil fields.
 

endure

GCM
Do any of you really think that the PRC is going to invade Taiwan or is this just a little diplomatic windbaggery on their part?
 
Do any of you really think that the PRC is going to invade Taiwan or is this just a little diplomatic windbaggery on their part?
It's nothing they haven't said before, boilerplate stuff.

Look, the intent isn't to capture Taiwan and the military option has always been aimed at deterring a UDI. The political aim is the elimination of foreign involvement as a determining factor in China's affairs - in this case, foreigners getting to decide what is and isn't part of China like they did for over a century.

They're well aware of the difficulties and uncertainties of an invasion of the island, after all they've been pondering the problem for 70 years during which time they've watched the only decent landing beaches turn into enormous FIBUA complexes stretching half the length of the island.

No, they're not going to invade.
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
Shock and Awe only works when you apply it over a number of days. What do you think Taiwan/America will be doing during this bombardment ?

If you apply this attack as a H Hour, the loading of Cargo Aircraft and Ships will have to be done a day in advance and would be immediately detected and you lose surprise. Only in fantasy and the movies is a co-ordinated attack possible in complete surprise and that gives Taiwan time to pretty much redeploy much of its equipment and even start to rip up runways on the civil fields.

I was referring to Taiwan defending itself and demonstrating it simply cannot do this without external help. this is obvious to everyone including the US who have come out and said so,
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
What was the aim for Tibet's invasion? Were they playing in foreign hands against China? I hear Mongolians are forced to learn Mandarin.

Do you have a source for that or is it social media?
 

IndiaGB

Clanker
Do you have a source for that or is it social media?

China’s insatiable appetite for control is forcing even its “model minority” to rebel​

Unlike the Tibetans or Muslim Uyghurs of its far west, China’s ethnic Mongol population has long been seen as pacified, content, and well-assimilated, fulfilling the stereotype of a “model minority” in a country bubbling with ethnic tensions.

In recent days, however, Mongols in China, most of whom reside in the vast Inner Mongolia autonomous region south of Mongolia proper, have vigorously protested an attempt by the government to curtail the teaching of Mongolian in schools, including shifting to using national Chinese-language textbooks instead of locally developed Mongolian versions. In short, Chinese will replace Mongolian as the main medium of teaching for classes such as math and science, while Mongolian lessons will continue. Authorities are cracking down, including posting photos online of people who attended the protests and offering cash rewards for tips.

The policy fits a broader pattern of Beijing’s quest to assert greater ideological control across all swathes of society, and increasingly oppressive policies against minorities.

Inner Mongolia protests at China's plans to bring in Mandarin-only lessons​

Thousands of ethnic Mongolians have protested across northern China in opposition to Beijing plans to replace the Mongolian language with Chinese in some school subjects.

Tuesday marked the first day of a policy revealed in June, to gradually transition the language of instruction in Inner Mongolian schools from Mongolian to Mandarin Chinese. The change affects three subjects over the next three years in the autonomous region. The education bureau said Mongolian and Korean language classes would remain.

The official explanation for the change to a bilingual education system was to ensure the curriculum and textbooks were of a high standard, and that government documents cited by analysts also referred to president Xi Jinping’s push for shared language as part of a common identity.

However mass protests in Inner Mongolia – referred to as Southern Mongolia by ethnic rights and independence groups – have revealed the depth of fear that Mongolian would be relegated to a foreign language as part of government plans to assimilate ethnic minorities into Chinese Han culture.




 

MissingOTC

War Hero
So they are introducing Mandarin, not actually forcing people to lean it, Mongolians are still free to speak their language right?
 
So they are introducing Mandarin, not actually forcing people to lean it, Mongolians are still free to speak their language right?
According to the narrative above, text books will be in Mandarin. So to learn other subjects, it must be done in an alien language. I wonder why the PRC would do that?
 
Pretty far fetched comparison.
Allowing Hitler to take Czechoslovakia unopposed only emboldened him to invade Poland.

Standby for a Biden "Peace in our time!"
 
Without strategic surprise, you are going to have to go in through the front door and make an opposed landing. The reference to Argentina was self evident i.e. the argentinians knew we were coming, but didn't know the final choice of landing site( tactical surprise). Any chinese force will be tracked all the way to its objective and its the equivelent of argentina helicoptering in a battalion to san carlos prior to our landing and with the inevitable results.

Taiwan has 23 million souls on it. The choice of landing beaches are limited and the airport/airbases will be heavily defended locales and without tactical surprise, the butchers bill will be on par with world war 2 levels of casualties. Even if China managed to seize a bridgehead, it has another month or two fighting to secure the whole island and more body bags back to wuhan.

Then after the glorious victory. You will need to leave a quarter million men on the island to keep the civil pop in order and then convince the rest of the world, that China is not an enemy of peace, spreader of random diseases and you think normal trade would resume :)
Has the leaderships use of manpower changed appreciably since Korea where the weather killed more of the poorly equipped Chinese troops than UN forces?

Always plenty more peasants to refill the ranks.
 
What was the aim for Tibet's invasion?
Largely to put an end to repeated Tibetan attempts to carve off Qinghai and large parts of Gansu and Sichuan, the most recent being in the early 40s. It probably surprises those of us who've been conditioned to think of Tibetans as a nation of hippies but they have a long history of belligerence.
I hear Mongolians are forced to learn Mandarin.
Every PRC citizen is taught the national language in school, in addition to English. In the Autonomous Regions, these are in addition to their native tongues - where, incidentally, Han and other minorities are 'forced' to speak the local language as part of their schooling. It's a bit like Gaelic, Cornish and Welsh speakers are 'forced' to learn English in the UK.

Incidentally, Neimongol has always used Mongolian script - unlike Mongolia which is struggling to reintroduce it after decades of using Cyrillic.
 
According to the narrative above, text books will be in Mandarin.
Textbooks will be in Hanzi. Mandarin is a spoken language, not a written one. Cantonese, Zhuang, Wu, Minbei, Shanghainese etc. speakers all learn from books written in Hanzi, it's just how China has always been.

For that matter, Korea, Japan and Vietnam used Hanzi as their writing system for centuries without it affecting their spoken languages in the slightest.
 
Has the leaderships use of manpower changed appreciably since Korea where the weather killed more of the poorly equipped Chinese troops than UN forces?

Always plenty more peasants to refill the ranks.
True; but the butchers bill from an opposed landing and months of protracted fighting, followed by a neccessary very strong occupation force, are things not covered in the 'China is mighty' way of thinking.
 
Has the leaderships use of manpower changed appreciably since Korea where the weather killed more of the poorly equipped Chinese troops than UN forces?
The leadership's use of manpower was dictated by their opponents' overwhelming superiority in firepower and the harsh lessons learned in 30-odd years of continual fighting.

It's the same lesson British forces learned in India and Spain - close with the enemy as swiftly as possible and accept those casualties as the price of not lingering under fire.
 
I was referring to Taiwan defending itself and demonstrating it simply cannot do this without external help. this is obvious to everyone including the US who have come out and said so,
As said before, you are falling into the classic trap of been overly impressed with the kit. Not saying your entirely wrong, to be impressed with UAV Performance in campaigns with limited air combat and the rising strength of China, is certainly enough to win a protracted war against Taiwan, but the keyword is 'protracted'.

Certainly the external help requires time. So the sailing time from the United States is measured in a month(loading/sailing) from CONUS and at least a week from Okinawa. But US and Japanese Aircraft could be providing air support within days, or even a matter of hours and tip the balance back to Taiwan.

In Summary:-
So a rational analysis says the time calculation also applies to China, as it can't afford to fight a protracted war. The bulk of the campaign likely needs to be wrapped up in a week and that includes a hasty and desperate pre-preparation(1-3 Days) that needs to be done in secret.

Do you think the Taiwanese Military can be browbeaten in say 4 days ?
 

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