China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

[smartascarrots]

So I repeat, if Chinese vessels had not started entering the Senkaku waters, it is reasonable to assume that those islands would have never been nationalized by the Japanese government.

Then you repeat the lie. The Japanese government did not have the right to add to Japanese territory, under the terms of treaty; and the territory which it added was not in any way Japanese state territory by direct effect of that same treaty.

I'll spell it out more clearly: failure to stick to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku is a direct violation of the terms of surrender. Any addition to Japanese sovereign territory requires the consent of the wartime allies, and that has not been given.

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

Why do you think they would need to liberate them, unlikely a Chinese invasion would get a foothold with the forces in the area, do you think?

China has failed to weaken Taiwanese resolve and no accomadation exists, that will deliver 20 million people into the hands of fascists and that leaves military action as the inevitable course if China continues to believe its own propaganda.

The pre-requisite of an Amphibious/Airlanding operation is tactical surprise and I simply can't see how China can mask its intentions of delivering a Corp Sized Force onto Taiwan, who would almost certainly have advanced warning from the Americans and anything less than a division would be dealt with by the sizable forces that Taiwan has of its own.

 

[MissingOTC]

The self deception is clear to me, but less so to yourself....Any campaign to seize a democratic country like Taiwan, would be very very bloody for both sides and all in the glare of a very hungry media and all the status quo arguments you've applied, would dissolve in an instant + china might fail and be forced to escalate the conflict and lead to potential civil disorder problems internally.

As for accomadation, that is essentially blackmail and its been tried and failed. Because the right to self determination is a fundamental right and if the UK couldn't offload a few thousand kelpers onto argentina, why do you think 23 million Taiwanese people would go along with your accomadation.

Again, your premise is flawed as you make several assumptions.

1) The west will want to fight a nuclear power over Taiwan
2) It has the ability to do so (even the US military concede this may be lost)

I will not even both to comment on you comparing Argentina with Taiwan, just goes to dhow how crazy this debate has got....

 

[MissingOTC]

So, appeasement?

Why is making peace with someone "appeasement"!? It's an Island a few miles of China.

If we can "appease" Russia in Ukraine, Turkey in Kurdistan and Pakistan in Afghanistan to balance our interests, I would prefer that to war.

 

[ThunderBox]

China has failed to weaken Taiwanese resolve and no accomadation exists, that will deliver 20 million people into the hands of fascists and that leaves military action as the inevitable course if China continues to believe its own propaganda.

The pre-requisite of an Amphibious/Airlanding operation is tactical surprise and I simply can't see how China can mask its intentions of delivering a Corp Sized Force onto Taiwan, who would almost certainly have advanced warning from the Americans and anything less than a division would be dealt with by the sizable forces that Taiwan has of its own.

I thought that’s what I said!!

 

[ThunderBox]

Why is making peace with someone "appeasement"!? It's an Island a few miles of China.

If we can "appease" Russia in Ukraine, Turkey in Kurdistan and Pakistan in Afghanistan to balance our interests, I would prefer that to war.

If China got hold of Taiwan before anyone reacted, I see the same as you quote, we won’t do anything to risk war.

Catch them on the way to annex/invade, it’s open season.

 

[MissingOTC]

China has failed to weaken Taiwanese resolve and no accomadation exists, that will deliver 20 million people into the hands of fascists and that leaves military action as the inevitable course if China continues to believe its own propaganda.

The pre-requisite of an Amphibious/Airlanding operation is tactical surprise and I simply can't see how China can mask its intentions of delivering a Corp Sized Force onto Taiwan, who would almost certainly have advanced warning from the Americans and anything less than a division would be dealt with by the sizable forces that Taiwan has of its own.

China would easily overcome Taiwan's defences, that is not my opinion.

This is a US Mil report to Congress, (needless to say they will be accused of being CCP trolls on this forum), it's lengthy but worth reading and beats Youtube videos. Summaries on pages 97, 101 and 137 indicate US Mil think China can occupy Taiwan

https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF

 

[MissingOTC]

If China got hold of Taiwan before anyone reacted, I see the same as you quote, we won’t do anything to risk war.

Catch them on the way to annex/invade, it’s open season.

Agree, but that is easier said than done. in 5 years from now you can expect a China with 4-5 aircraft carriers, 7 Wasp class LHDs.

They are working towards an element of surprise and I have not even started on their missile and air force capability.

 

[retread2]

Why is making peace with someone "appeasement"!? It's an Island a few miles 180 Km (110 miles) of from China.

If we can "appease" Russia in Ukraine, Turkey in Kurdistan and Pakistan in Afghanistan to balance our interests, I would prefer that to war.

That is some gap. If the PLA/PLA-N can appear magically on Taiwan's beaches without warning they will have done very well. Taiwan will have IPB'd this to death and have more collection going on than you can poke a stick at.

 

[MissingOTC]

That is some gap. If the PLA/PLA-N can appear magically on Taiwan's beaches without warning they will have done very well. Taiwan will have IPB'd this to death and have more collection going on than you can poke a stick at.

Sorry, I was talking in the context of it being part of China or nearby from a geographical point of view, of course 110 miles in modern military amphibious terms is quite a track if trying to attempt surprise.

Of course it would be interesting to see if they war gamed this and what happens in the most optimistic scenario for them, but going by US MIL reports, it does not look promising. Right now China is approaching US (with some way to go admittedly) to terms of capability.

 

[smartascarrots]

The pre-requisite of an Amphibious/Airlanding operation is tactical surprise and I simply can't see how China can mask its intentions of delivering a Corp Sized Force onto Taiwan, who would almost certainly have advanced warning from the Americans and anything less than a division would be dealt with by the sizable forces that Taiwan has of its own.

They couldn't, simply put. Taiwan has considerable ground surveillance radar capabilities, not to mention mainland-based HUMINT that would tip them off.

They'd then have to cross highly temperamental waters under at best contested airspace to a landing site which was practicable, defendable, offered swift routes to their objectives and didn't debouch straight into No-Go terrain or AKAs and then keep their forces supplied across a distance possibly up to 3 times that of the Normandy campaign.

Finally, they'd have to be able to keep what they'd taken. Not a chance, unless Taiwanese resistance collapsed immediately and completely.

 

[nanayon]

Sorry, I was talking in the context of it being part of China or nearby from a geographical point of view, of course 110 miles in modern military amphibious terms is quite a track if trying to attempt surprise.

Of course it would be interesting to see if they war gamed this and what happens in the most optimistic scenario for them, but going by US MIL reports, it does not look promising. Right now China is approaching US (with some way to go admittedly) to terms of capability.

Even before a PLA force could depart its shore and towards Taiwan, force build up would be necessary. A concentration of Type 71s, Type 75s, and the necessary destroyer escorts would have to gather right across the straight first. Observation via satellites would be able to detect such a build up and short notice diplomatic channels and red alert would have time to engage. The USMC stationed on Okinawa and the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (JGSDF) could land on Taiwan on short notice.

 

[Andy Farman]

If we can "appease" Russia in Ukraine, Turkey in Kurdistan and Pakistan in Afghanistan to balance our interests, I would prefer that to war.

The Czechoslovakians may be of a differing opinion

 

[aardvark64]

The Czechoslovakians may be of a differing opinion

Yes. Another lesson from history.

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

Again, your premise is flawed as you make several assumptions.

1) The west will want to fight a nuclear power over Taiwan
2) It has the ability to do so (even the US military concede this may be lost)

I will not even both to comment on you comparing Argentina with Taiwan, just goes to dhow how crazy this debate has got....

Without strategic surprise, you are going to have to go in through the front door and make an opposed landing. The reference to Argentina was self evident i.e. the argentinians knew we were coming, but didn't know the final choice of landing site( tactical surprise). Any chinese force will be tracked all the way to its objective and its the equivelent of argentina helicoptering in a battalion to san carlos prior to our landing and with the inevitable results.

Taiwan has 23 million souls on it. The choice of landing beaches are limited and the airport/airbases will be heavily defended locales and without tactical surprise, the butchers bill will be on par with world war 2 levels of casualties. Even if China managed to seize a bridgehead, it has another month or two fighting to secure the whole island and more body bags back to wuhan.

Then after the glorious victory. You will need to leave a quarter million men on the island to keep the civil pop in order and then convince the rest of the world, that China is not an enemy of peace, spreader of random diseases and you think normal trade would resume

 

[MissingOTC]

The Czechoslovakians may be of a differing opinion

Pretty far fetched comparison.

 

[MissingOTC]

Without strategic surprise, you are going to have to go in through the front door and make an opposed landing. The reference to Argentina was self evident i.e. the argentinians knew we were coming, but didn't know the final choice of landing site( tactical surprise). Any chinese force will be tracked all the way to its objective and its the equivelent of argentina helicoptering in a battalion to san carlos prior to our landing and with the inevitable results.

Taiwan has 23 million souls on it. The choice of landing beaches are limited and the airport/airbases will be heavily defended locales and without tactical surprise, the butchers bill will be on par with world war 2. Even if China managed to seize a bridgehead, it has another month or two fighting to secure the whole island and more body bags back to wuhan.

Then after the glorious victory. You will need to leave a quarter million men on the island to keep the civil pop in order and then convince the rest of the world, that China is not an enemy of peace, spreader of random diseases and you think normal trade would resume

Making a massive assumption the Chinese will not take care of the Taiwanese Navy and Air Force in the first few hours, something the US Mil report alludes to. It is a small island, China can easily rain hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles for every single Taiwanese target a concentration levels far surpassing the Gulf War.

I cannot sit at a laptop and say it will be easy, but going by the relative force comparisons right now, it looks very much like a one way fight.

Of course I have not even delved into the comparative quality of Taiwanese personnel but it seems their military seems to be plagued with deep problems in morale, recruitment and retention

Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell

The end of conscription has left the army critically undermanned.

foreignpolicy.com

To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan needs a stronger army

A stronger army is needed to deter a wider conflict that could entangle the U.S. at a time when calls are growing in Washington to defend the island.

www.latimes.com

The Air Force seem to be struggling even during peacetime

Taiwan's air force straining in undeclared war of attrition with China

KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN (REUTERS) - Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visited a low-key but critical maintenance base for fighter jet engines on Saturday (Sept 26), offering encouragement as the Chinese-claimed island's armed forces strain in the face of repeated Chinese air force incursions.. Read more...

www.straitstimes.com

I am no apologise for China, but anyone can see Taiwan cannot defend itself without massive US/Western help. I simply think it's not worth it

 

[Resasi]

OK, let's see if I understand this. China is a huge threat to the US because their defences are all oriented towards successfully keeping a potential invader at bay rather than being structured in a manner which would allow them to invade other people. Yes, that pretty much encapsulates the Washington mindset.

Unfortunately you seem to be missing the main threat from China. It is to gain complete control of the S China sea, which in turn establishes a global economic choke hold, establishing global economic dominance without having resorted to any invasion at all.

It has already gained influence in various countries by economic means, bought strategically important companies, educational facilities, it’s purchase, through development loans, of various strategic military bases world wide, and, not least gained a huge leg up by the global economic decimation through the COVID pandemic, which some say was purposely released, if not helped to spread, by deliberate concealment.

Then at an appropriate time begin military take-overs starting with Taiwan.

 

[smartascarrots]

It is to gain complete control of the S China sea, which in turn establishes a global economic choke hold, establishing global economic dominance without having resorted to any invasion at all.

How does control of the SCS on its own equate to a global economic choke hold or global economic dominance? Might it have something to do with the economic might of countries in East Asia?

 

[nanayon]

Making a massive assumption the Chinese will not take care of the Taiwanese Navy and Air Force in the first few hours, something the US Mil report alludes to. It is a small island, China can easily rain hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles for every single Taiwanese target a concentration levels far surpassing the Gulf War.

I cannot sit at a laptop and say it will be easy, but going by the relative force comparisons right now, it looks very much like a one way fight.

Of course I have not even delved into the comparative quality of Taiwanese personnel but it seems their military seems to be plagued with deep problems in morale, recruitment and retention

Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell

The end of conscription has left the army critically undermanned.

foreignpolicy.com

To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan needs a stronger army

A stronger army is needed to deter a wider conflict that could entangle the U.S. at a time when calls are growing in Washington to defend the island.

www.latimes.com

The Air Force seem to be struggling even during peacetime

Taiwan's air force straining in undeclared war of attrition with China

KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN (REUTERS) - Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visited a low-key but critical maintenance base for fighter jet engines on Saturday (Sept 26), offering encouragement as the Chinese-claimed island's armed forces strain in the face of repeated Chinese air force incursions.. Read more...

www.straitstimes.com

I am no apologise for China, but anyone can see Taiwan cannot defend itself without massive US/Western help. I simply think it's not worth it

The PLA Navy would need to be able to make a blockade around Taiwan to ensure air superiority over Taiwan airspace. Without air superiority, PLA assets on Taiwan ground become easy pickings by the USAF and USN aircraft, which then opens the way for US-led ground invasion. Since the worsed had happened, Taiwan changes its official name from ROC to Taiwan.