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China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia


If I remember correctly, the UK sent a warship out to the Pacific in four separate instances in 2018 which included HMS Argyll once and HMS Albion in another. But no visits for 2019. I think they were distracted by the whole Brexit thing at that time. 2020 so far, no visits either yet but of course the virus put a dampening effect on much naval activity across the board. So with QE, they'll make a return in a big way after an absence.


After checking, 3 times in 2018, once in 2019. So I was a little off, please pardon me. HMS Surtherland in April 2018. HMS Albion visited in August 2018. HMS Argyll visited in December 2018. The 4th visit by HMS Montrose was in March 2019. Although Japanese policy years of the government at large and to SDF branches such as the JMSDF often record in fiscal years that go from April to March, so technically speaking 4 times in fiscal year 2018 and none in fiscal year 2019, probably why my memory slipped a bit.
This is the same Taiwan Straits that the US insists are international waters and conducts their own demonstrations in. I suspect the Chinese are showing that two can play at that game.

The Chinese also recently released information showing the Americans altering the identification beacon signals on their spy planes flying off the Chinese coast in order to pretend to be Malaysian civilian airliners. This has been verified by third parties.

It may not be coincidence that these events are happening at the same time and It is possible that the Chinese are putting pressure on Taiwan to have the latter tell the Americans to lay off their own activities.

That's been going on for a long while. The Japanese military have also been joining in on this. Asiana Airlines prefixes (AAR) and others have also been used. The hex codes have not been altered, so it is plain to all exactly which airplanes are 'pinging'.

If you know what you are looking for, this site is your friend,

This is updated on a rolling basis.
More explicit declarations of intent.

The way things are right now, I would guessitmate the chances of a Chinese led Third World war this decade are about 80%. There are those who would claim that estimate is is optimistic in the extreme.

As you say, they have their fifth columns in place in the USA and other countries 'Beijing' Biden is a Chinese stool pigeon.
The CCP always plays the long game. They are careful methodical and single minded and as they say when all other countries plan ahead for 20 or 30 years China is planning for 100.

Xi it now appears is attempting to gain overall power.

Power corrupts.

Absolute power absolutely corrupts.

While I am sure that he has China’s interests at heart.

They are his interpretation of what that should be. It is not everyones.

Taiwan and Hong Kong have been examples of what can be achieved in a free society.

The CCP still has that lesson to learn.

In the meantime we will have to be able to control the Dragon.
Number of decades that's been the official position?

Number of wars started?
China’s behaviour over the last decade and it rapidly increasing belligerence has created an increasing reaction. The Quad, a grouping of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia was first formed by the “Tsunami Core Group,” created to respond to the devastating Boxing Day tsunami of 2004. Though disbanded as the recovery effort wound down, it had established a successful track record as a means of dealing with issues of regional concern.

Shinzo Abe of Japan then proposed an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” in 2006 in an expanded Japanese diplomatic efforts to promote freedom and the rule of law. Foreign Minister Taro Aso also paid significant attention to the democratic, free-market nature of the future Quad, but with an expanded network that encompassed states as near as Vietnam and as far as Ukraine.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney signalled American interest in a Quad dialogue in early 2007 After he consulted Australian Prime Minister John Howard on the potential for a Quad during a visit in February 2007. Howard and Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee traveled to Tokyo to reaffirm the momentum for the dialogue group. Aso and Abe’s visits to India and Washington sealed the deal for the first meeting.

The meeting was an “informal grouping” that touched on areas of common interest to the partners, including disaster relief. In 2007 Australia decided that the Quad did not suit its strategic outlook and announced that it would not seek to participate in the Quad dialogue in January 2008, telling China that it had no intention of participating in a second Quad meeting

The four countries were not on the same page regarding the major threat facing the region, or means of addressing that challenge. But September saw a military exercise associated with the first Quad, an enlarged version of the U.S.-India Malabar series. This exercise, featured four navies, together with the Singaporean navy, exercising in the Bay of Bengal. The manoeuvres featured exchanges of personnel, drills in sea control and multi-carrier operations.

China had noted and begun a campaign against the Quad, filing official protests with each of the four countries. The Republic of Korea, America’s major Pacific ally not affiliated with the Quad, had expressed hesitation about joining and was unwilling to be forced to choose between the US, its security ally, and China, a growing economic partner.

But development of bilateral and trilateral military-military relationships among the Quad nations continued for the next decade. Japan became a permanent member of the formerly bilateral U.S.-India naval exercise, Malabar, in 2015. Chinese coercion post-2015 now began to crystallize the alignment of interests underpinning the Quad. India had direct military coercion by China, engaging in a standoff at the Doklam trijunction with Bhutan and China in the summer of 2017.

India then found itself blocked from membership in the nuclear suppliers group by China. Australia saw relations with China change dramatically under former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. The discovery of several Australian politicians accepting money from organisations and individuals connected to the Chinese Communist Party, as well as the exposure of United Front Work Department activity in China, led to the adoption of a foreign interference law in 2018.

Japan saw an increase in coercive Chinese behaviour with the nationalisation of the Senkaku islands in 2012, Increased “gray-zone” bad behaviour by China Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels The arrest of a Chinese fishing captain by the Japan Coast Guard inflamed tensions more. The Japan Air Self-Defense Forcesaw ever increasing scramble interceptions against Chinese aircraft. The Maritime Self-Defense Force and Japan Coast Guard seeing regular incursions of China Coast Guard and fishing vessels into the contiguous zone of the Senkakus. Chinese ships and aircraft now began passing through the Miyako strait on their way to the Western Pacific, showing the Chinese military viewed Japan’s southwestern islands as a barrier to open ocean access.

2017 Quad Officials discussed a wide variety of issues, including denuclearisation of North Korea, support for the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” concept, and promotion of a rules-based system in the Indo-Pacific region. Included the United States, Japan, and Australia citing freedom of navigation and overflight. The US, India, and Australia discussed connectivity, and the US, Japan, and Australia discussing the coordination of maritime security.

The Quad continues to take shape in a newer more inclusive, version. It has the potential to benefit the region, and represent a version of U.S. foreign policy firmly rooted in inclusive arrangements with allies, partners, and friends and designed to address the challenges the region actually faces.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue foreign ministers meeting in Tokyo this month signals that the Quad has arrived as a global diplomatic combination and an Indo-Pacific military power. For Beijing, the Quad's formation and now solidification is a major problem. One the CCP has managed, with its previous bad behaviour and recent ramping of of tension, to weld even tighter together.

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It would seem that China’s recent repeated crossing of the Taiwan China ADIZ, her pronouncements of taking Taiwan by force, ramping up Marine coastal units and Naval exercises have had the desired effect. A huge weapons deal for Taiwan’s defence is now accelerating through its approval stages in the US Congress.

One system that will definitely have caught the CCP’s attention is the air-to-ground missile, the AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER, made by Boeing which can be launched byTaiwan’s F-16’s at warships trying to cross the Taiwan Strait or targets on the Chinese mainland. These along with more F-16’s, HIMARS, and MBT's

Their general recent aggression in the area is definitely provoking reactions which may not be to their liking.
I suppose the large sea in between them will prevent a Chinese Taiwan version of the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea that is slowly starting to normalize as time goes by?

Otherwise, we have shown we wont do anything risky apart from apply sanctions and a bit of an Ocean Cruise nearby at least for a while, until the dust settles, or we cannot afford the fuel.
we have shown we wont do anything risky

At the present time there have been ramped up freedom of navigation flights and naval passages by the US and the Quad nations. Australia has upped its defence budget by 40% and attributing this to the new situation in the S China sea.

The UK is planning on sending our new carrier to the region.

A massive arms package is being arranged for Taiwan.

It seems that quite a lot is being done to indicate that action to counter the CCP’s aggression is under way.

Meanwhile CCP ‘Diplomats’ are showing how they win friends and influence the world.

It has become increasingly evident that ignoring the CCP’s new 'Wolf Warrior’ tactics is not a sensible strategy.

If anything it is only strengthening people suspicions that China’s moves that allowed the global spread of COVID 19 may indeed have been intentional.
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Unless there is a sea change in the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) policy of aggression, a Pacific war is highly likely in the coming years.

There can be no doubt of the ambitions of the CCP for global dominance.
General Secretary Xi Jinping is an advocate of a well-known Leninist saying. “Probe with bayonets. If you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.

In the absence of a collective and countervailing force the CCP will press on harder in her various expansionist policies. Only in the presence of genuine resistance will cause them to possibly recalculate.

At the present time the Quad is seeing India slowly realise that she must stop sitting on the wall. Her initial reluctance to commit fully is slowly giving way to a realisation that she must cease being the ‘mush’ in the alliance.

The UK while not part of the quad is certainly a major player in the upcoming stand-off in the S China Sea.

There may be some, but most people in HK hate the mainland Chinese, and especially the CCP.

I would say the Chinese Communist Party has a full-strength 5th column here already through various protest groups and sleeper cells.
The possibility of future problems in the S China Sea is seeing increased preparations by various concerned parties

Integrated air ops in the last week involving land-based Japanese F-35A’s and the U.S. amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA-6) have been ongoing in the western Pacific during “advanced combined operations”. The integrated air defence training with Japanese and American forces comes as Japan moves forward with its future carrier capability with its F-35B’s.

Operation Keen Sword is due to start Oct 26th.

The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of 42 F-35Bs to Japan as part of a bigger deal that will see Japan possibly acquiring a total of 147 F-35’s making it the second-biggest operator of the F-35 after the United States.

At present USMC F-35Bs are cross decking with the Royal Navy's HMS Queen Elizabeth as she prepares for her Far East deployment, with the US Marines increasing the numbers of aircraft on deck, and their crews exchanging experiences of STOVL operations.

It can be expected, given the close relations the US Navy and Japan’s Self Defence Forces, that they will also be exploring, together with the U.S. Marine Corps the potential of the “Lightning carrier” concept, which involves amphibious assault ships operating as light aircraft carriers with large numbers of F-35’s. Also that cross decking way well be part of that future development, given the USN’s long carrier aviation history and experience and the USMC as the most experienced F-35b’s operators.

The 'Lightning Carrier Concept’ is one a number of nations are exploring as a way of affordable NavAir force multiplication. Japan Korea are already going ahead...Australia and possibly India may well follow.