China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

it's kinda crazy this thread is still alive from 2013
It was started by the "drama merchant of a thousand user names" to make one of his usual incomprehensible announcements, but it morphed into a convenient thread in which to discuss any east or south Asia topics of interest. It's not unlike many other ARRSE threads in that way.
 
I suppose if they were cracking one out during a battle, it would.
If they're able to get a stiffie during a battle, India'd better just surrender now.
 
So with China now having Pakistan and Sri Lanka as indebted vassals and China going on about a "self defensive pre-emptive counter attack" India is in a bit of a poor position. Surrounded, outnumbered and outspent.

As much as Modi likes to play the hard man, they've got him but the curlies.
 
Meanwhile the threats to India ramp up.

“In a potential self-defence counter-attack, China will secure its own territory and not likely claim Indian territory after emerging victorious, but the battle will deeply hurt India so much that global position and economy would go backwards to decades ago.”

The CCP really does seem determined to divert attention from any COVID enquiry by some sabre rattling.

Cheap way to keep peoples attention focussed elsewhere.
You seem to think this isn't planned.

Perhaps China needs the rest of the world to blame it, become the bad guy and then have all the diplomatic reasons for hostile expansion removed by others...

Extremely convenient for the HK scenario one could say.
 
Extremely convenient for the HK scenario one could say.
The new HK security law was permitted under the handover agreement and Article 18 of HK Basic Law (the mini-constitution we arranged before legging it).

They don't need anything else to be able to impose closer control before the expiry of 1C2S now that HKers have broken their end of the deal.

In the event that the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress decides to declare a state of war or, by reason of turmoil within the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region which endangers national unity or security and is beyond the control of the government of the Region, decides that the Region is in a state of emergency, the Central People's Government may issue an order applying the relevant national laws in the Region.
 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
Free right of navigation, but an indication of continued and growing PLAN submarine capabilities.

'The Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force (SDF) confirmed at the weekend that a “foreign” submarine had been detected near Amami-Oshima between Okinawa and Kyushu. It did not surface nor identify itself. Japanese warships and land-based surveillance aircraft then tracked the submarine for several days, watching closely as it moved from the Pacific Ocean into the East China Sea.

'Japanese government sources told local media the submarine remains unidentified, but that they believed it to be Chinese. Military forces are usually deliberately vague when it comes to identifying submarines. This is to conceal the accuracy of tracking technology – such as sound, sonar and infra-red signatures. The submarine “may have tested Japanese and US anti-submarine warfare capabilities,” an SDF source told the Japan Times. Another government source reportedly said the submarine may have been “trying to stir things up as another part of China’s maritime advances” – an oblique reference to the situation in the South and East China Seas.

'The move is being interpreted as a signal by Beijing that it has advanced navigational knowledge of the Japanese seabed and submarines capable of exploiting this. In response, the Japanese SDF dispatched two warships – the destroyer Ashigara and the helicopter carrier Kaga – and P-1 maritime surveillance aircraft to follow the submarine’s movements.

'Under the United Nations’ Law of the Sea, a submarine must surface and raise its national flag while transiting territorial waters that extend 22km from the shore. This does not apply to contiguous zones – areas sharing a common border in which a nation can exert customs and immigration control extending an additional 22km beyond territorial waters. The submarine passed through a narrow 10km territorial gap between Amami-Oshima Island and the Tokara Islands. This was as close as it could come to an outright violation without actually doing so.

'It’s the first time Japan has admitted to observing a submarine in its contiguous zone some 375km northwest of the significant inhabited island of Okinawa. Beijing’s expanding submarine fleet has been of growing concern to regional navies. By 2030, it’s predicted to number some 60 quiet diesel-electric boats and about 16 nuclear-powered attack submarines.'


The basing of the new MSDF Kawasaki P-1 at Kanoya with 1 Kokutai, some way towards the southern tip of Kyushu is not unrelated to the threat from China. The MSDF Kokutai, number 5 at Naha will likely be the next Kokutai to be on the receiving end of P-1 deliveries once the Kanoya unit has fully re-equipped.
 
Each of China’s recent naval exercises has been met by a ‘see you...and raise you...’ by the USA. Two American aircraft carriers, the Ronald Reagan and the Nimitz, teamed up on Saterday for freedom-of-navigation operations as China’s military conducted exercises nearby.

Previously commenced were dual carrier flight operations in the Philippine Sea, on June 21. consisting of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 6, guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG 59) and guided-missile destroyers of Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 9, which includes USS Sterett (DDG 104), USS Ralph Johnson (DDG 114) and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17. CSG 9 consists of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52) and guided-missile destroyers from Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 23, USS Russell (DDG 59), USS Rafaela Peralta (DDG 115), and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 11.


These naval forces are definitely not there ‘by’ the ‘pleasure of China’ but more perhaps for a pointed ‘reminder’ to China, that there are bigger more experienced Naval forces on their doorstep, that are ready to exercise the freedom of navigation in ‘International’ waters.
 
The recent Chinese threats and economic moves against Australia are sharp and pointed reminders of China’s economic hold over Australia and its complete rejection of any kind of COVID 19 investigation that Australia had suggested should be carried out.

China has been steadily increasing its economic colonialism around the globe through loan/debt strategy. Massively in Africa, in Pakistan, and increasingly around the Pacific where strategically useful for its massively growing Navy

 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
China and choice of allies is fairly telling. The lines seem drawn with allies of a certain type grouping together.

Free and open societies or dictatorship.

China has been working with Iran for some time.

The stage is being set for the next war in the Pacific, quite possibly within the next 5 years. China has been slowly planning this since the 1990s.

This could be a very interesting decade.
 
The US UK alliance seems to have been reaffirmed today.

It would seem prudent, in light of an imminent US presidential election, to get what we can while we can. Biden is less likely to be friendly.

China, already in snarl mode with the UK is likely to get worse as Huawei gets removed and the Chinese nuclear power station deal looks shaky.

China’s/CCP’s 'wolf warrior' diplomacy seems to be very revealing indeed.
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
Long ranged precision fires...

Whatprojects does te US currently have in this area? Thought they had abandoned their Zumwalt ammo project.
 
Having previously signed the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea treaty (UNCLOS) which codified the geophysical conditions and legal precedents establishing sovereign control of territorial waters and sovereign rights in the EEZ, the Chinese government ignored a ruling in July 12, 2016 by the Hague's international arbitral tribunal supporting the Philippines' claims that China had violated Filipino territory in the South China Sea by seizing islets and "sea features.” Also that China had plundered resources in the Philippines' maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

China’s complete rejection of the decision alerted the Filipino government and other nations on the Pacific Rim to China’s behaviour towards treaties and agreement previously agreed. The Beijing regime had not only broken a major treaty but also openly flouted legal procedures created to promote peaceful resolution of international disputes.

Chinese communist behaviour has long been noted, but Beijing's reaction to the ruling once again clearly demonstrated the CCP could not be trusted to abide by even meticulously negotiated treaties.

The CCP's recent June 2020 decision to abrogate the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 and impose authoritarian laws on Hong Kong simply reinforces the lessons that treaties with communist China does not protect smaller nations and territories from China's disregard for global norms.

Reneging on treaties, arbitration, court verdicts and seizing territory without suffering consequences, has convinced China's CCP that its opponents are weak and lack the will to resist. Undermining, co-opting and dominating global diplomatic and economic institutions, subverting public and private organisations, bribing influential figures, and generally underhand often criminal methods of interaction is now open and common CCP behaviour.

In 2016, the U.S. limited its response to China's rejection of the Hague tribunal ruling, and to strongly criticising China's treatment of the Philippines, and conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations along with encouraging diplomatic and defence cooperation among southeast Asian nations, but avoided a direct, diplomatic confrontation with Beijing.

It has been the U.S. Navy’s ongoing task for some years now, on behalf on other nations, to conduct regular FONOP’s operations during which, a Navy vessel or aircraft enters contested areas to demonstrates American opposition to territorial claims that intrude on international shipping lanes air routes specifically challenging China's expansionist claims in the South China Sea.

China's ongoing longstanding worldwide cyber hacking, theft of intellectual property, its espionage operations and its recent bullying behaviour in the COVID-19/Wuhan virus pandemic, have increasingly convinced not only senior American leaders, but other nations round the globe, that CCP-led China only respects blatant power and threats, and albeit belatedly these nations have now begun to react and to co-ordinate together to begin sending a message to the CCP that its behaviour is uniting opposition.

Certainly Japan S Korea, Vietnam, the Phillipines, Singapore, Taiwan and Australia all now have increasing reason to have very strong reservations about the CCP’s actions in the S China Sea. The UK’s HMS Queen Elizabeth’s upcoming deployment will be alongside the USN in FONOP’s in the S China Sea

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on July 13, 2020 has announced a new U.S. policy in the South China Sea that specifically aligns American policy with the tribunal's decision.

"Beijing's claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,” adding "We seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold freedom of the seas in a manner consistent with international law, maintain the unimpeded flow of commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes."

Describing CCP-led China as an unprecedented threat, he points out that "Beijing uses intimidation to undermine the sovereign rights of Southeast Asian coastal states in the South China Sea, bully them out of offshore resources, asserts unilateral dominion, and intend to replace international law with 'might makes right.’

He then went on to state that "America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law."

The CCP need to understand that 'Wolf Warrior Diplomacy' is simply creating an increasingly united opposition and cementing of a coalition that is prepared to resist on contain it.


 
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Biden is so old and decreiped that he probably does not know what the UK is.
I don't imagine he'll cope with Trump winning again either
 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
If not checked, the CCP will be directly invading countries bordering the South China Sea within a few years. The PRC have not been increasing military spending by at least 10% annually all this century for nothing.

Taiwan is likely to be the first victim, but they will not stop should they succeed in crushing that nation. Their ultimate aim is to seize or control the whole of South East Asia, and much beyond.
 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
I suppose they are still pissed off about the Kuomintang retreat to Taiwan?
Their number one goal is to seize Taiwan. In the event of a weak or appeasing US Administration in the future, the CCP will be emboldened to attempt an invasion of Taiwan.
 
Their number one goal is to seize Taiwan. In the event of a weak or appeasing US Administration in the future, the CCP will be emboldened to attempt an invasion of Taiwan.
Personally I think they they wll try some low hanging fruit first - Some Indian border territory for example.
 

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