China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by sunnoficarus, Mar 25, 2013.

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  1. Their position is that they don't interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states. That is a position that "we" also hold when it suits us (e.g. with respect to Saudi Arabia).

    It could be argued that they are already.
     
  2. Or Spain.

    But that was the bad sort of separatism. We obviously couldn't support that.
     
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  3. Their human rights.
     
  4. seaweed

    seaweed LE Book Reviewer

    Chinese don't have much track record of caring two beans for human rights in their own country, why should anyone suppose they care about them in other countries?
     
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  5. In possibly the most unsurprising surprise news of the year, the Times reports that Japan's 'helicopter frigates' will be modified to carry F35 aircraft. Whodathunkit*!
    And before the usual suspects turn up with their usual Sinoganda, let's be clear: China and Russia are not the only countries to possess a credible anti-ship capability.

    *us, about 3 years ago.
     
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  6. Just finished "Destined for War" by Graham Allison.
    Somewhat scary and depressing but it's not written in stone, at the least The West will have to accept a non democracy as an equal in the world and likely cede chunks of the immediate neighbourhood to China.
    Frankly a Cold War might be the least worst solution?
     
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  7. I'm not convinced that a more democratic China would be any more willing to play second fiddle to the Americans or Japan than the current one. If anything, politicians who had to pander more to public opinion might decide to pursue votes by ramping up the nationalism to a greater degree and harping on the historical wrongs that China suffered during the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

    This semi-popular notion that wars are something that are always instigated by dictatorships and never by democracies seems to lack much in the way of supporting fact. The only way to make that idea fit history is to create such a narrow definition of democracy that there is very little historical record to base it on.

    The big wars of recent centuries seem to have resulted from struggles to re-align power relationships between traditional great powers who had shaped the existing world order, and rising new powers who were seeking to create a place for themselves in it. The new powers would attempt to create a position of influence comparable to that of the existing powers, and the existing powers would attempt to resist any dilution of their own power and influence.

    On present trends, in the coming future China and India will both seek to attain a degree of influence commensurate with their economic position in the world - China as the world's most powerful economy, and later on, India as the second most powerful. The US will attempt to take both down a peg, using the network of alliances they have been cultivating to try to make up for their own diminished relative power.

    The worst case result of this would be WWIII ending in the destruction of civilisation as we know it. The best case would be some jostling followed by a settling in of a classical balance of power where no one great power has dominance.

    Whether or not that power re-alignment takes place peacefully will to a great extent depend upon how the rest of the world responds to restrain them. Unfortunately, the international institution which is supposed to fulfil this role, the UN, is inherently unsuited to it. The UN has no inherent ability to do anything of significance which isn't in the interests of whatever great power has effective control of the Security Council, and that situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
     
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  8. Le_addeur_noir

    Le_addeur_noir On ROPs

    The 21st century is going to be the Chinese century and little short of all-out war is going to change that.

    Just look at the numbers of outward Chinese tourists to gauge the economic power of the nation. There are so many Chinese tourists turning up in Thailand, they can't build extra airport capacity to handle the number of arrivals quick enough.
     
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  9. The same could have been said regarding Russian tourists from say... 15 years ago...
     
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  10. Russia is a different case, despite being the world's largest nation their population is only around 145m. China has 1.3bn (ish). There are 900m users of WeChat (an all encompassing mobile app that covers communication, advertising, payments, social media and commerce platform) and singles day (local equivalent of black Friday) did USD 25bn in online sales.

    Chinese tech industry is world class and expanding rapidly which will take up some of the slack of declining manufacturing and individual wealth continues to rise across the board. Chinese tourists are going to be a major feature of the next 50 years, you ain't seen nothing yet!
     
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  11. Based on what you say, China will be able to accomplish much, gradually, through economic power rather than by using military power.
    Simplifying the issue (for my sake), who is likely to resist the growth of Chinese power and what red lines are there that might provoke conflict?
    How likely is it the US will have to recognise that they can't restrain the growth of a superpower China, at least in Asia?
     
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  12. The only thing that will rein in China's continued growth will be economic malaise either global or national. Internal growth though will continue to offer a buffer against any global downturn. There are potential, serious, problems with China's banking system (both official and shadow), particularly around credit. It will depend on just how far the government will go to shore it up.
     
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  13. Le_addeur_noir

    Le_addeur_noir On ROPs

    Not in Thailand. You may have got large numbers of Russians at Pattaya and Phuket, it is nothing like the number of Chinese, and the number of Chinese arrivals is growing at many places across the country. And they say so far onlt about 5% of the Chinese population travel so far.........

    Chinese airlines are taking delivery of a massive number of new airliners and new airports are opening all over the country.
     
  14. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    And one of this Isumo-class 'helicopter destroyers'/'light carriers' is called as 'Kaga'. It's a split in Yank's faces, like if Germans will call their new ship "Tirpitz" will be split in British faces.
     
  15. Fine with me after all we call ours
    Ardent (spit at the French as we nicked the 1st 1)
    Temeraire (spit at the French as we nicked the 1st 1)
    Trafalgar (Spanish and French with that one)
    London - how do you feel about that one - do you feel its a spit in the eye that the RN may well re use the name on the T26**


    In fact I feel you are projecting your perceived slights over every tiny thing you think is anti Russian - because I dont see anyone getting upset of equipment names* particularly historic and traditional ones.


    *Well apart from the Germans and the Typhoon name for the Eurofighter allegedly

    **Think carefully about this
    If it doesn't bother you - then its clear your comments Viz Kaga and Tirpitz were no more than puerile agitprop attempts to create a division where none exists
    If it does bother you well then its clear your comments Viz Kaga and Tirpitz were no more than the puerile adolescent rantings of an infantile and nationalistic mind
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2017