China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by sunnoficarus, Mar 25, 2013.

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  1. YarS

    YarS On ROPs


    Sorry, bro, we are thinking in the other way. Every man and every goverment are reasonable and predictable. Behavoir of everybody can be predicted if you have understanding of his reasons, his logic, his goals. If your intelligence can not understand logic of Koreans, it is not mean that Koreans are "bad". It mean, that your intelligence is bad.

    All what you wrote is a truth. But not all truth, it is only a little part of "peace-time truth". Try to understand "war-time logic". I believe, you can.
  2. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    Oh, bro... First of all it is not question of aethetic prefferences. It is question of "war time logic".
  3. The following is a Vice News story talking about how a new (or resumed) Korean War might start, and how the very early stages of it might progress. What Would Happen in the Minutes and Hours After the US Attacked North Korea?
    It is based on an interview with Rodger Baker, a North Korea analyst at Stratfor.

    It's too long to summarise adequately, but in general it could be said the results don't look pretty. If the US attacks North Korea in even a limited strike, the North Koreans are vulnerable enough that their logical next moves would be to escalate as quickly as possible before the US could launch additional strikes. China and Russia would almost certainly be drawn in, complicating the scenario.

    The article doesn't go beyond the early stages of the war, but it does give a good impression that simply launching an attack on North Korea is very unlikely to end well for a great many people in both North and South Korea and possibly elsewhere.

    The story is worth reading in full.
    • Informative Informative x 2
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  4. Yes. Here's something for your education.
    A 'Pipe Dream?' Russia, North and South Korea's Gas Pipeline Quest
    Pipelines, gas fields, and railways are huge investments. Russian companies are not going to sink billions into those projects without some solid assurance that "Kim Fatty the Third" (as the Chinese call him) isn't going to change his mind and do something which costs Russian investors huge losses.

    OK, we can predict that Kim Fatty the Third will do something stupid that would cost investors money. That's not a particularly helpful sort of prediction if you are determined to get your gas to market at the lowest cost though, is it?

    Looking all the time and money that Russia has sunk into trying to find a way past North Korean intransigence on this and other related issues but to no avail, then I guess by your reasoning it shows that Russia doesn't have good intelligence in this area, do they?
    • Informative Informative x 2
  5. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    Sure. But there are also another side of medal - Kim is not one, who can make something that will cost huge losses. And strong Army also is a protector of our investments.

    Sure. But we can predict that Trump "Rusted" of Septics can also make something stupid. Bro, he actually do stupid (from my point of view) things.

    Oh... May be it will be strange to you, but in Russia goverment's intelligence works for goverment and military goals. Commercial organisations like Gasprom or Russian Railways have their own intelligences. Abd yes, you continue thinking in "peacetime mode". Try to turn on "wartime mode".
  6. Well, Trump has approved our (Canada's) new oil pipeline to the US after Obama had blocked it for years. We'll have to see however if the oil companies are still interested in that market or whether they've decided to pursue other markets overseas.

    Now how's Kim Fatty the Third doing with respect to your gas pipeline to South Korea?

    Pipelines, major railways, and other such strategic projects of national importance are successful when industry and government work hand in hand. The Russian state gets involved in diplomacy when these issues come up and the state intelligence services provide support to the state.

    Turn off your war/peace mode and put on your business mode. Business achieves more than war or diplomacy at this level. A gas pipeline to South Korea draws them into closer relations with Russia in a very fundamental and enduring way.

    Kim Fatty the Third is an obstacle in the way of a lot of important objectives. Why do you think he was so anxious to have his brother killed? It was almost certainly because he knows other people are looking to replace him with someone more malleable.
  7. Well, this must have provided rather interesting background music during Xi's discussions with Trump about North Korea: Missile attack on Syria signals sea change in Trump's isolationist foreign policy
    Xi perhaps was given to contemplate that mercurial political leaders who suddenly launch missiles off into disputed areas amidst international tensions ought to be reined in somehow.
  8. I found this piece particularly lacking in long-term focus: the one thing you ought not to want to do in your first meeting with the head of an uncomfortable-yet-essential-partner is to make them feel like a twat.
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  9. Whether by design or unintended consequence, I think that a not-so-subtle 'noises off' demo has been laid on for Putin, Xi and-more specifically-a badly dressed fat bloke who lives North of the 38th Parallel.
  10. Little confrontation or progress in China-U.S. meeting
    There was little sign of either confrontation or progress in the meeting between Trump and Xi on Friday.
    The US said the two sides agreed to increase cooperation on dealing with North Korea, and there were discussions on trade related issues as well.
    However, there didn't seem to be a lot of actual substance to the discussions. The main message that Xi may have gone away with is that Trump's willingness to act unilaterally with respect to Syria may apply to North Korea as well.
    The US said that China has agreed to increase cooperation on dealing with North Korea's weapons programs.
    There were no details in the story as to what this increased cooperation may consist of.

    Xi's concerns may have been focused on stabilising China's relationship with the US ahead of the Communist Party congress later this year.
    When Xi spoke, he said that various important topics were discussed and that a good working relationship was established. He also spoke of the historic responsibility of both countries to work towards peace and stability in the world.
    The US and China also spoke about trade issues, but I'll skip over that topic here.

    In general, my conclusions are that Xi probably showed up intending to avoid giving away any concessions, and probably succeeded in that. Thinking about Xi's remarks as reported in the press, I am particularly struck by the reported "historic responsibility of both countries to work towards peace and stability in the world". Taken at face value, this places China on an equial footing with the US with respect to being an arbiter of world affairs. It will be interesting to see if this theme is repeated or amplified upon in future meetings.
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  11. First pictures of new chinese carrier:

    Edit, better pic:
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
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  12. China scored quite coup, rolling up CIA assets.

    WASHINGTON — The Chinese government systematically dismantled C.I.A. spying operations in the country starting in 2010, killing or imprisoning more than a dozen sources over two years and crippling intelligence gathering there for years afterward.

    Killing C.I.A. Informants, China Crippled U.S. Spying Operations
    • Informative Informative x 1
  13. It's worth reading the article, as what is written in the text has little relationship to the headline. The story isn't actually about why "China can't beat the US". It's actually about how the Chinese are currently in a learning phase as they build up their fleet. The fleet exercises they are conducting around the Pacific are part of that learning process.
  14. Rule of thumb: the more eye-catching the headline, the less relevance it will have to the content of the piece.
    Breitbart and Fox excepted, as the content will not have much actual content anyway.
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