Catalan Independence? Democracy dies in Spain.

Most bank's money exists on only on paper. If people start trying to withdraw cash from the ATMS and the ATM's run dry (as might they do), those that can will start to move their money electronically out of Spanish banks.

Remember banks pay interest on peoples savings, and then use those savings to lend to other people. The difference between savings and lendings is relatively small and could be exhausted if people panic and there is a rush to withdraw cash as fast as possible.

Just think of Northern Rock in the UK in the Lehman crisis.

Banks can only operate if people have confidence their money is safe. If that confidence goes, individual banks can end up in trouble.

I'm not saying a run on the banks will happen, but the chances of one have substantially increased.

Wordsmith
Can the currency/banks fail if they are using euro's? Now the banks are 'offshore' they shouldn't have a problem, that will only occur if there are a mass pf defaults on loans?
 
I am still a little confused as to why yars is tolerated and not thread banned more often with his obsessive sexual compulsion of talking about fighting with NATO. But I digress, as the UK government has said they will not recognise Catalonia's independence it could make EU negotiations a little amusing if Spain start talking about Gibraltar. Imagine the struggle of the negotiators trying to maintain a straight face as Spain is pulling itself apart and trying to claim a bit of land that is not theirs.
 
I am still a little confused as to why yars is tolerated and not thread banned more often with his obsessive sexual compulsion of talking about fighting with NATO. But I digress, as the UK government has said they will not recognise Catalonia's independence it could make EU negotiations a little amusing if Spain start talking about Gibraltar. Imagine the struggle of the negotiators trying to maintain a straight face as Spain is pulling itself apart and trying to claim a bit of land that is not theirs.
Don't forget their enclaves in North Africa.
 
Anyone stock market savvy? What's today been like?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Can the currency/banks fail if they are using euro's? Now the banks are 'offshore' they shouldn't have a problem, that will only occur if there are a mass pf defaults on loans?
Individual banks can fail, but they could be bailed out by the ECB.

Look at this this way. Suppose a bank has taken £1 million in deposits and it has lent out £900,000. If the savers attempt to take out £200,000, the bank is effectively bust after the first £100,000 has been taken out as they can no longer respond to requests to withdraw savings.

Wordsmith
 
Let me just state I fully support economic female migrants from Spain aged between 17-45.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Anyone stock market savvy? What's today been like?
The Spanish stock market went south as you might expect.

The central Spanish government can probably impose direct rule on Catalonia, but it will lead to a great legacy of bitterness and probably result in a mini-recession in Spain.

The long term effects on Spanish and European stock markets have yet to play out.

Wordsmith
 
Individual banks can fail, but they could be bailed out by the ECB.

Look at this this way. Suppose a bank has taken £1 million in deposits and it has lent out £900,000. If the savers attempt to take out £200,000, the bank is effectively bust after the first £100,000 has been taken out as they can no longer respond to requests to withdraw savings.

Wordsmith
But the banks are now in 'mainland' Spain, to protect 'mainland' customers are the Spanish government going to have to bail them out. Is it not the same as if Scotland voted to leave but would still use £sterling.

Sky postulating over the police and security forces, would Mososs have a 'sick out' to avoid implementing Madrid's instructions. If the GC/military went would they be attacked or ignored?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
But the bank are now in 'mainland' Spain, to protect 'mainland' customers are the Spanish government going to have to bail them out. Is it not the same as if Scotland voted to leave but would still use £sterling.
Runs on banks can occur in mainland Spain as well. It just takes customers there to lose confidence in the security of their savings.

Wordsmith
 
Runs on banks can occur in mainland Spain as well. It just takes customers there to lose confidence in the security of their savings.

Wordsmith
An army of confused old pensioners can bring a bank to its knees.
 
I'm not totally sure and happy to be corrected, but I don't think that there are any "Catalan " banks left. my own Ciaxa Catalonia for example was taken over by BBVA a while back.
 
Are there any decent Catalonian under 17 footballers that can be kicked out of the Spanish side before tomorrow afternoon's world cup final? Just interested in doing what's right, nothing to do with their opponents.
 
I see the Spanish Prosecutor is looking to charge and presumably take into custody the notables concerned with today's UDI.

What's the betting that Ms Gabriel avoids custody, and becomes the de facto leader of continuing protest ?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Exactly, the ECB and the Spanish government would have to bale them out not Catalyuna?
I think it would have to be the ECB - it's the central bank for all the eurozone countries. It's only a tiny possibility, but were a number of Spanish banks to collapse, the eurozone would come under huge strain.

The EU itself is going to come under huge strain as well. If a mass of the population of Catalan passively resist, there aren't enough Spanish police to assert effective control over the country. Remember, the percentage of police is small relative to the population and police can only operate with the tacit agreement of the population.

In addition, if large amounts of police are drafted to Catalan for a long period, crime will start to edge up in the rest of Spain: less police on the streets = more crime.

Rajoy may end up sending in the Spanish army, then we'll the see the Mk 1 half brick and petrol bomb deployed - not massively, but enough to make for some ugly news stories. This is going to get significantly worse over the next 2 months.

I'd put the blame 2/3 on Rajoy, 1/3 on the Catalans. As I've said before, had he been more politically adroit, there never would have been a declaration of independence. His coalition is pretty shaky - I wonder if it will survive much longer?

Wordsmith
 
I think it would have to be the ECB - it's the central bank for all the eurozone countries. It's only a tiny possibility, but were a number of Spanish banks to collapse, the eurozone would come under huge strain.

The EU itself is going to come under huge strain as well. If a mass of the population of Catalan passively resist, there aren't enough Spanish police to assert effective control over the country. Remember, the percentage of police is small relative to the population and police can only operate with the tacit agreement of the population.

In addition, if large amounts of police are drafted to Catalan for a long period, crime will start to edge up in the rest of Spain: less police on the streets = more crime.

Rajoy may end up sending in the Spanish army, then we'll the see the Mk 1 half brick and petrol bomb deployed - not massively, but enough to make for some ugly news stories. This is going to get significantly worse over the next 2 months.

I'd put the blame 2/3 on Rajoy, 1/3 on the Catalans. As I've said before, had he been more politically adroit, there never would have been a declaration of independence. His coalition is pretty shaky - I wonder if it will survive much longer?

Wordsmith
Wish I could give an informative as well Sir.

To put the army on the streets will Rajoy have to declare martial law with all the problems that may cause? There are long memories in Spain in particular from the Franco era, in fact, they are still uncovering graves from that era when people were 'disappeared', Strange that is a Latin/Russia/Chinese/German thing. Spanish version of Nacht und Nebel anyone?
 

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