Catalan Independence? Democracy dies in Spain.

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
It now gets very messy indeed.

Wordsmith's prediction.
  1. Rajoy sends in military
  2. General strike in Catalan which is 20% of Spanish GDP
  3. Spanish growth takes a major hit andy maybe tips into recession.
  4. 50/50 chance of a run on the Spanish banks.
Rajoy can impose direct rule , but he may well royally fornicate the Spanish economy in doing so.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Ironic isn't it.

As I've said before, Rajoy has struck me like a gambler going double or quits all the time.
  • Had he let the referendum go ahead under Madrid's direct supervision, all the indications are that the pro-independence side would have lost 45/55.
  • Had he given a few concession to Puigdemont, who was clearly looking for an excuse to back down, he probably wouldn't have ended up in the present mess.
Now he's got a declaration on independence from Catalan, and whatever the outcome, a legacy of bitterness that will last a generation.

I'm not saying the Catalans are blameless, but Rajoy has shown weapons grade stupidity.

Not least in actually invoking Article 155. Puigdemont was clearly cr*pping himself about the prospect of declaring independence. Had Rajoy held off Article 155 and not forced the Catalan parliament into declaring independence first, the Catalans might have started to turn on Puigdemont.

Wordsmith
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Ironic isn't it.

As I've said before, Rajoy has struck me like a gambler going double or quits all the time.
  • Had he let the referendum go ahead under Madrid's direct supervision, all the indications are that the pro-independence side would have lost 45/55.
  • Had he given a few concession to Puigdemont, who was clearly looking for an excuse to back down, he probably wouldn't have ended up in the present mess.
Now he's got a declaration on independence from Catalan, and whatever the outcome, a legacy of bitterness that will last a generation.

I'm not saying the Catalans are blameless, but Rajoy has shown weapons grade stupidity.

Not least in actually invoking Article 155. Puigdemont was clearly cr*pping himself about the prospect of declaring independence. Had Rajoy held off Article 155 and not forced the Catalan parliament into declaring independence first, the Catalans might have started to turn on Puigdemont.

Wordsmith
Rajot obviously bringing into use the renowned EU negotiating and diplomatic skills! :p
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Rajot obviously bringing into use the renowned EU negotiating and diplomatic skills! :p
If I were the EU, I would be worried. They have a major member state heading into turmoil and possibly into recession. There is the prospect of a run of the Spanish banks, that may spread to France and Italy, although that's by no means guaranteed.

Longer term, if the EU full bloodedly supports Rajoy's government, that will alienate a lot of the other regions in the EU that want independence themselves. Which doesn't bode well for the future.

If Brussels has the remotest bit of sense, it will be very concerned about the turn of events.

Wordsmith
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
If I were the EU, I would be worried. They have a major member state heading into turmoil and possibly into recession. There is the prospect of a run of the Spanish banks, that may spread to France and Italy, although that's by no means guaranteed.

Longer term, if the EU full bloodedly supports Rajoy's government, that will alienate a lot of the other regions in the EU that want independence themselves. Which doesn't bode well for the future.

If Brussels has the remotest bit of sense, it will be very concerned about the turn of events.

Wordsmith
The EU are in a cleft stick situation . They want Regions rather than nations as that way they become the supra-national body and countries disappear leaving them with sovereign status. OTH they have to be seen to be backing the government of one of the member states.

So they are in a bit of a pickle - what a shame! :D
 
.................Longer term, if the EU full bloodedly supports Rajoy's government, that will alienate a lot of the other regions in the EU that want independence themselves. Which doesn't bode well for the future...............
Scotland being the exception.
Special case.
 
It now gets very messy indeed.

Wordsmith's prediction.
  1. Rajoy sends in military
  2. General strike in Catalan which is 20% of Spanish GDP
  3. Spanish growth takes a major hit andy maybe tips into recession.
  4. 50/50 chance of a run on the Spanish banks.
Rajoy can impose direct rule , but he may well royally fornicate the Spanish economy in doing so.

Wordsmith
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

It will come down to which is the bigger damn.

Interesting times ahead. Suppose it fills in the gap while we all wait for the FIFA World Cup . . .
 

diverman

LE
Book Reviewer
Ironic isn't it.

As I've said before, Rajoy has struck me like a gambler going double or quits all the time.
  • Had he let the referendum go ahead under Madrid's direct supervision, all the indications are that the pro-independence side would have lost 45/55.
  • Had he given a few concession to Puigdemont, who was clearly looking for an excuse to back down, he probably wouldn't have ended up in the present mess.
Now he's got a declaration on independence from Catalan, and whatever the outcome, a legacy of bitterness that will last a generation.

I'm not saying the Catalans are blameless, but Rajoy has shown weapons grade stupidity.

Not least in actually invoking Article 155. Puigdemont was clearly cr*pping himself about the prospect of declaring independence. Had Rajoy held off Article 155 and not forced the Catalan parliament into declaring independence first, the Catalans might have started to turn on Puigdemont.

Wordsmith
Unless Rajoy looked at the UK over the Brexit referendum, or the last election which put TM on for a landslide. and thought how many shy leavers etc are there?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Many hard left, anti-authoritarian trots will be heading for Catalonia to show 'solidarity' with the Catalans - or more precisely to provoke a punch up with the authorities. I think we'll see petrol bombs and half bricks in the next few weeks, many heaved by people that don't come from Catalonia in the first place.

Wordsmith
 
Many hard left, anti-authoritarian trots will be heading for Catalonia to show 'solidarity' with the Catalans - or more precisely to provoke a punch up with the authorities. I think we'll see petrol bombs and half bricks in the next few weeks, many heaved by people that don't come from Catalonia in the first place.

Wordsmith
As long as they self-identify as Catalans ...

Sent from my Harrier Mini from EE using Tapatalk
 
Well, it's finally a subject that the right wing, centre and left wing of Spanish politics have all agreed on something. A joint statement from PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos has justified central government rule as being in line with the law and the constitution.
The USA, Germany, France and the EU have all given their support to the Spanish Prime Minister with the EU (via Tusk) saying the EU does not recognise Catalonia but asks Rajoy not to use force. (Just before the usual suspects come up and start saying the EU is saying nothing).
And @Wordsmith , why would there be a run on Spanish banks? Catalan banks I can see but can't really see why there would one on the Spanish banks. Businesses are moving out of Catalonia and into Spain. If they were moving to other EU countries I could understand it but once they have registered their new HQs then the taxes they were paying to Catalonia will now come directly to Spain (just one bank, Sabadell, paid 2 billion euro to the Catalan government last year).
Catalonia has a degree of autonomy that most other states in the EU would kill for. However, once they get reduced taxes and have to pay for border controls, defence and so on then their economy might not be that high especially with the stated aim of setting up a "Central Bank of Catalonia" which isn't going to come cheap particularly when taking the Catalan debt into account.
 

YarS

On ROPS
On ROPs
Many hard left, anti-authoritarian trots will be heading for Catalonia to show 'solidarity' with the Catalans - or more precisely to provoke a punch up with the authorities. I think we'll see petrol bombs and half bricks in the next few weeks, many heaved by people that don't come from Catalonia in the first place.
Ha! Looks like Catalans are more clever than I thought about them. There was opened general agency of South Ossetian Republic in Barcelona at Monday to improve "cultural links" between South Ossetian and Catalunia. This guys also have experience of fighting with "NATO-standart armies".
 

YarS

On ROPS
On ROPs
Yanks opinion:
That's where the Russian military presence in Crimea comes in. Russia provided the overwhelming force that made the Crimean secession possible in practical terms. The threat of force, and not the referendum, made sure Crimea exists as a de facto part of Russia today. Puigdemont stands alone, without a force that can fight for secession. Even if he had majority public support -- which the "referendum" doesn't allow him to claim -- he'd lose a confrontation. That's why he's headed for a fall, and the Catalan secessionists will eventually be sent back to the drawing board. If they're smart, they'll start working on a long-term campaign to change the Spanish constitution and turn the country into a federation so self-determination can eventually be discussed.
Why Catalonia Will Fail Where Crimea Succeeded

As for me, they are mistaken. If Catalans will not be too greedy and/or stupid, they will have their "volonteers".
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
And @Wordsmith , why would there be a run on Spanish banks?
Most bank's money exists on only on paper. If people start trying to withdraw cash from the ATMS and the ATM's run dry (as might they do), those that can will start to move their money electronically out of Spanish banks.

Remember banks pay interest on peoples savings, and then use those savings to lend to other people. The difference between savings and lendings is relatively small and could be exhausted if people panic and there is a rush to withdraw cash as fast as possible.

Just think of Northern Rock in the UK in the Lehman crisis.

Banks can only operate if people have confidence their money is safe. If that confidence goes, individual banks can end up in trouble.

I'm not saying a run on the banks will happen, but the chances of one have substantially increased.

Wordsmith
 

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