Canadian Elections Around The Corner . . .

I doubt that many people in Canada cares what he thinks one way or the other.
And had George W. Bush endorsed Stephen Harper or Stockwell Day for PM, our media would be shrieking about American interference in our elections.

The media can't have it both ways.
And had George W. Bush endorsed Stephen Harper or Stockwell Day for PM, our media would be shrieking about American interference in our elections.

The media can't have it both ways.
Only a few more days and hopefully some private school will have a new drama teacher who likes to bond with the young folk to show how cool he is.......
Only a few more days and hopefully some private school will have a new drama teacher who likes to bond with the young folk to show how cool he is.......
And likes to paint himself in Kiwi's finest brown or black boot polish.
The following video is an interesting look at the polls. With respect to Obama's comments about Trudeau, the pollster makes the interesting observation that it probably hurt Trudeau a bit, but that he has so many other problems that the difference won't be significant. She said that any sort of endorsement by an American politician is nearly always seen as a negative in Canada.

The pollster is predicting a 77% chance of a Liberal minority. She points out that this isn't a very high number, so it could still go either way. There is a 5% chance of a Liberal majority, and pretty much no chance of a Conservative majority. One big area of uncertainty is to what degree people will stay home rather than voting. Turn out was high at the advance polls, but they don't know how that will translate into turn out at the upcoming main poll.

Singh (NDP) has performed better than expected, while the BQ have made a come back. For the BQ, their gains have to a great extent been due to their opposition to any new pipelines through Quebec.

In Quebec the "climate change" issue plays well there due to their major hydro electric projects being symbols of national pride. In other words, they aren't fundamentally more "eco-friendly" at heart, but the environmental talk about carbon emissions happens to closely parallel their national symbols. I mentioned this point on another thread here a few weeks ago, so I find it interesting to see it brought up here as well.

The Liberals have been hurt in Quebec by been seen as "weak" on climate change (see the preceding as to why this matters), particularly as Trudeau is seen in Quebec as being a strong backer of the Alberta oil industry. He bought a major pipeline project and now he has to wear it. On the other hand, this has been of no help to his party in Alberta, so the whole climate change issue has been a net negative for the Liberals.

The Conservatives on the other hand have struggled to capitalise on this, as Scheer has been a weak performer on the campaign trail and many voters see him as being untrustworthy. In Ontario there is comparison to Doug Ford, who said one thing on the hustings and another altogether once elected. I will add that Doug Ford has been notably keeping a very low profile during the election period to avoid causing more problems to the federal Conservatives.

The People's Party have turned out to be a damp squib this time around and they may win no seats at all, possibly not even Bernier. The Green threat to the NDP has receded and they are no longer in any position to overtake them.

According to the pollster, the personalities of the leaders is playing only a small part in how voters are following the election, with policies and issues getting the greatest degree of consideration.

See the video for details.
There are a total of 21 political parties running in this election. Here are the 15 lesser known ones.
CBC: You've heard of the 'big 6' political parties, but what about the 'fringe 15'

  • One of those is the Communist Party of Canada, which is running candidates in 30 of Canada's 338 federal ridings.
  • Louis Lang, a candidate for the Marxist-Leninist Party in the Quebec riding of Pontiac, also wants corporations to contribute more to the public purse. His party, which is running 50 candidates in this election, is backing an initiative to shift the way public services such as education and health care are funded in Canada.
  • The Christian Heritage Party, which is running 51 candidates, is focused less on the economy and more on social conservatism. Peter Vogel, the party's election chair said the party's platform has been built around three themes: life, family and freedom.
  • The Animal Protection Party, which is running 17 candidates, has an obvious focus on treating animals better than they are currently treated. But as deputy leader Jordan Reichert told CBC News, the party's platform also addresses issues that range from foreign affairs and health, to education and the economy. "Our platform is the only one that gives equal consideration to people, animals and the environment," Reichert says. All candidates of the party are vegan and the party pledges to withdraw subsidies to animal-based industries and transition to plant-based industries. They also want to implement a meat tax that would be similar to the tax on tobacco, with the aim of discouraging people from eating meat.
  • The satirical Rhinoceros Party of Canada, which is running 39 candidates, simply wants people to consider voting and paying attention to the decisions made in Ottawa, even if that means voting for them. "If you vote Green, that's good, then go vote Green. If you vote for the Liberals, that's good, go vote for the Liberals. But if you don't vote, if you think that all politicians are corrupt, then go vote Rhino," said Corriveau, who is hoping to unseat the Liberal minister for families, children and social development in the last Parliament, Jean-Yves Duclos, in the riding of Quebec.
  • Canada's Fourth Front - seven candidates. The party bills itself a "pro-Canada" alternative to the main federal parties.
  • Canadian Nationalist Party - three candidates. A far-right party promoting the maintenance of European heritage and culture in Canada.
  • Libertarian Party of Canada - 24 candidates. This party seeks to maximize personal freedom by limiting the role of government in people's lives.
  • Marijuana Party - four candidates. The party wants deregulation to ensure that marijuana is as cheap and available to buy and sell as coffee.
  • National Citizens Alliance of Canada - four candidates. This controversial far-right party wants to limit immigration and deport all illegal immigrants.
  • Parti pour l'Indépendance du Québec - 13 candidates. This party seeks Quebec's independence from Canada.
  • Progressive Canadian Party - three candidates. This party formed after the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada merged with the Canadian Alliance to form the Conservative Party of Canada. Members opposed the merger.
  • Stop Climate Change - two candidates. This party wants radical action to stop climate change.
  • The United Party of Canada - four candidates. This left-of-centre party says it straddles both Liberal and Conservative ideology.
  • Veterans Coalition Party of Canada - 25 candidates. This party describes itself as a coalition founded on truth, duty and honour.

The article gives the Rhinoceros Party the most coverage in terms of their platform, so you might want to read the story if you want the details on that.
The following post is also copied to the "Things Canadian" thread as I thought it contains some interesting points about Canadian society which go beyond the election.

The following is a rather interesting story on why the Bloc Québécois are coming back from the dead, and how this will affect the outcome of the election.
Why the Bloc Québécois came back from the dead to haunt the Liberals

All the other major parties have accused the Bloc of trying to revive vieilles chicanes, old arguments.
Throughout the campaign, as the Bloc Québécois rose steadily in the polls, the other leaders would accuse the sovereigntist party of trying to revive vieilles chicanes, old arguments.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer used the line in the TVA debate. The NDP's Jagmeet Singh used a slight variation. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has been using the line at least since 2013.
This was intended to make the party look like it was stuck in the past.
Accusing the Bloc of obsessing over old arguments was meant, of course, to make the party look like a leftover from a bygone era, when talk of referendums and sovereignty consumed the country's political oxygen.
However, it isn't the Bloc who are stuck in the past. They have focused on nationalism, not sovereignty.
But the problem is that under leader Yves-François Blanchet, the Bloc has reinvented itself.

Blanchet has spent most of his time talking about Quebec nationalism, not sovereignty.
The new provincial CAQ government in Quebec follows a form of nationalism called décomplexé, which probably best translates as "unselfconscious". The BQ have now copied this, and the other parties focusing on vieilles chicanes makes them look like the ones who are stuck in the past.
In Quebec, this brand of nationalism is often called décomplexé, that is, unselfconscious or, literally, without complexes; its champion is Premier François Legault and it's seen as something new, refreshingly so.

Recycling the vieilles chicanes line makes it seem like it's the other federal leaders who are the ones stuck in the past.
Quebecers are confident, and one of the reasons for this is their economy is doing well. Scotiabank expects Quebec's economic growth to lead the country's this year. Employment is growing, and there are signs of prosperity all around.

However, more immigration is needed to sustain this growth. What concerns Quebecers is whether these immigrants will integrate into Quebec society, including learning to speak French and adopt Quebec values.
But the long-term prospects of this growth face significant hurdles thanks to an aging population that is leaving the workforce in droves.

Economists, business lobbies and mayors are pleading for more workers, for immigrants. But these pleas confront more deeply embedded concerns: Will they speak French? Will they adopt our values?
Many Quebecers feel that Trudeau is not listening to these concerns.
The perception among many Quebecers — especially those older and living outside of Montreal — is that the Trudeau government was deaf to these concerns.
In Quebec, these concerns form the basis of a new type of nationalism, based on values and culture rather than separatism.
Quebec, in a way, is re-modernizing itself, a process that comes with anxieties about the ability of a collective identity to survive the transformation.

As have similar anxieties elsewhere in the world, in Quebec they have been channeled into nationalism. That is what the Bloc is offering voters.
I will refer back to previous posts on the "Things Canadian" thread about the CAQ and how they have led this trend in Quebec. The CAQ reject the idea of an other independence referendum, but Quebecers are to be maitre chez nous, "masters in our own house", in Quebec and immigrants are expected to conform to Quebec culture.

The effect this comeback of the Bloc Québécois will have on the election is that they are expected to take seats that the Liberals were counting on to maintain a majority. The Conservatives may lose seats to the BQ as well, but they have fewer seats in Quebec to lose so it would hurt them less provided they can pick up enough other seats in other provinces.

I will also add to the above a point which wasn't addressed in the article. The comeback of the Bloc Québécois is also a reflection of how low they had sunk in recent years. Their current leader, Yves-François Blanchet, recently replaced Mario Beaulieu. Beaulieu was a "controversial" party leader as he was seen as being a hard line separatist, forced on the party MPs by party activists in 2014. A number of their MPs, including the party house leader, quit the caucus to sit as independents.

In 2017, Mario Beaulieu was replaced by the even worse Martine Ouellet. She too faced a caucus revolt over her plans to focus on Quebec independence, a plan which party MPs feared would lose them their seats. Again, a number of party MPs quite the caucus to sit as independents. In 2018, Ouellet was forced out and replaced by the current leader, Blanchet.

I have also mentioned previously how Bernier's People's Party also seems to be taking some of his party's policies from the pages of the CAQ policy book. If he fails to do well in this election in Quebec, it may be partially due to the BQ already having staked their claim on some of the same policies at the federal level.
I exercised my franchise today. All I'm going to say is that I didn't vote for the Prime Minsrel's party.
I've voted as well. Everything went quickly and smoothly, and I was on my way home within 5 minutes of arriving there.
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Here's a web site with live totals. Results will start appearing some time after 7pm ET.
CBC Election results

Here's the Elections Canada official results. It's not quite as convenient as the above link, but it also reports the minor parties (anyone other than the six largest).
Elections Canada Results

To get a majority, a government will need 170 seats.
I've voted as well. Everything went quickly and smoothly, and I was on my way home within 5 minutes of arriving there.
I voted too, but since I had to go into town I made it worthwhile and had a steak dinner, best decision I made all day....
Election station at the wife's work since last Thursday - perfect,, two birds with one stone.
Polls have closed in the Atlantic provinces and the results are starting to come in. The Liberals are elected in 4 seats, and leading in 8 for a total of 12. The Conservatives are leading in 3 seats. The NDP are leading in 1.

Take the "leading" results with a grain of salt for now, as some of those leads are by a handful of votes and results can change rapidly.

In the last election the Liberals had swept those provinces, so any seats to the opposition represents a loss for the Liberals.
The current results are:
  • Newfoundland - Liberals leading in 6 and NDP in one, with 93% of polls reporting.
  • Nova Scotia - Liberals leading in 9 and Conservatives in 2 with 64% of polls reporting.
  • PEI - Liberals leading in all 4 with 78% of polls reporting.
  • New Brunswick - Liberals leading in 5, Conservatives in 1, and Green Party in 1 with 59% of polls reporting.
I'm going to sign off for now. The big news is going to be what happens in Ontario and Quebec, where the bulk of the seats are. We won't know that for a while yet.
CTV declares for Liberals.
Pity. At least it's a minority government where Trudeau's either going to have to go into coalition with the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois.

I had this vid of the The Central Band of the Royal Air Force primed and ready to play on the offhand chance that the Grits would have been defeated.
Elections Canada has the following seat projections:
Liberal - 156
Conservative - 121
BQ - 32
NDP - 25
Green - 3
Independent - 1
People's Party - 0

Maxime Bernier (People's Party) lost his own seat. He was a former Conservative, and the new winner is also a Conservative.

The independent is Jody Wilson-Rayboud, who won in Vancouver-Granville, helped by a divided vote.

The Green Party seats were in Saanich-Gulf Islands (May's riding), Nanaimo-Ladysmith (just to the north of the preceding, and Fredricton. The first two ridings are in hippy country in BC on the south-east coast of Vancouver Island, but the Green breakthrough in New Brunswick is likely due to the turmoil and rebellion in the NDP in New Brunswick.

The Conservatives gained 23 seats, but the BQ were proportionally the biggest gainers with 22. The Liberals lost 30 and the NDP lost 17. 170 seats are needed for a majority.

The BQ come back is explained in a previous post I made a couple of days ago. They say that independence is yesterday's issue and that they are all about Francophone nationalism without sovereignty today. This cut deep into the NDP vote and cost the Liberals some seats as well.

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