Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by oldcolt, Jun 7, 2010.
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Fails to consider the political will of the various member states to ensure that it suceeds.
That's the political will of the politicians who want it to succeed not the people of those countries who, in the main, probably just want their old currency back. If I was a German, approaching pensionable age, I would be pretty p1ssed off having my pension slashed to bail out the tax evading overspending Greeks. Thankfully, I am not and even more thankfully, we did not go into the Euro zone. Phew! (Although I conceed, if it fails, it will cause Uk a few problems too)
Heard a very interesting radion interview today (can't remember the chaps name) who believes that Germany will drop the Euro in the next 12 to 18 months. His reasons were that the ever efficient Germans don't like the fact that other Euro members are running up massive debt whilst they (the Germans) are in the Black having their currency devalued by other Euro member states.
but as a net exporter they do like having the Euro devalued... it helps them sell their stuff.
TB - Good point, industry across the rest of the Euro zone would boom if the Deutschmark came back to town.
I remember this being the very argument put forward by our govt at the time chaired by Thatcher the great.
2 years ago when the economic downturn started, this was predicted again.
To hell with the Euro nations, they want it when things are good, they just cannot hope to run away when things go bad. They have brought this upon themselves.
Being a bit of a Eurosceptic myself I couldn't agree more.
Having burned boats with the euro, I think it unlikely that it will be given up without a fight. Typical of the eurocrats hurrying us towards a federal state it was set up on fudged figures and economies that were based on shaky foundations.
Now the shaky foundations are causing countries like Greece and Spain major problems and the dictamen of what to do is coming from an extra-govermental source giving the governments no room for manouvre. People are not so much unhappy with the euro but more by their politicians performances and certainly over here feel betrayed by incompetence in all parties.
Returning to various currencies would return us to the inflation that hit when they first changed, nobody rounds down prices, remember decimalisation? Also it would be to admit that the European project is as yet unrealisable due to massive differences, something the eurocrats can't do.
Yet I think it depends on the Boxheads, as much as German politicians profess love of europe and all things unified they may decide that votes in Bavaria are more important. If they go the euro is dead and for the foreseeable future, cutting away one of the pillars of unification, also for the foreseeable future.
I think it is more realistic to expect a fight to the death to keep it, but that new members to the club will be vetted very closely, which is what they should have done right from the off.
Time for another pan-European war maybe
Given that it would take a minimum of 2, and more likely 3 years to develop, print and distribute any new major currency issue - he is clearly completely ignorant of any facts....including the fact that a Euro returning to its original intended baseline value is very good news for German exports. I expect the Euro to go down another 10-20% in the next year overall, it is what the ECB governing council want after all, with the caveat that it will happen without inflation - which is more tricky to manage.
Why do people put up with this nonsense? Now we get journo's quoting journo's, "it is being reported that" etc. Complete fact free zone.
FFS just read Bloomberg news for a few weeks if you want to get a more objective view. (Then you will be just as confused as the professionals - but at least better informed )
The Euro will be in the kak all year - probably into Q1 or Q2 next year, new rules may even squeeze out defaulting countries in the longer term - but not before there is a viable plan B, and nobody is even thinking about one as yet. The Sfr is also going to struggle as is Sterling this year - $ should go up overall, but I am not too specialist on the finer points of the US market influences.
I don't believe that for one moment. German quality sells itself and the teutonic mind probably isn't bothered.
How would you feel if we were in the Euro?
The Eurocrats will be quick to explain that the Euro's minor and temporary problems can only be fixed by tighter fiscal control from the centre and greater political cooperation and unity of purpose.
Translation - Stand-by for more Euro Super-state control from the Berlin/Paris accord.
Just as well we've still got stacks of nice shiny gold not piles of Euro notes eh?
Nonsense, look at the figures. Why do you think senior EU leaders are deliberately talking the Euro back down right now? This is an opportunity to do so with a low inflation risk due to consumer concern. German exports are well down on recent years, and have had massive boost in the last few months. Airbus and others have been buying 5* dinners for their political friends for some time and are now hoping for a payback
Not just the Eurocrats. Everyone else is looking for a viable alternative and failing....feel free to address any suggestions to the Eurozone leaders...
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