Budgets and retention

Morning everyone,

It has been a while since my last round of questions, since then the SDSR has happened, which fuels this question:

In a statement from my current company heirachy and probably repeated in many other places "the Army is full". Probably not too wrong considering the redundancies to come. I understand there will always be recruiting to be done, although I do remember being told that the last time redundancies were made, a huge "swathe" of officers (that time particularly infantry I think) were told they were no longer required.

How likely is it that a larger number of young officers are going to find themselves hitting the end of their SSC and not gaining the regular commission? Something that a short time ago I would have thought pretty unlikely for someone intending to make their career in the military and not a complete chocolate teapot.

I ask as (in my case) I would stand to go from an open 22 year engagement in a pretty secure trade to what is a bit of a "gamble" to become an officer (the gamble being to become a good one), already a big step, but now if the risks of an enforced retirement early are greater, that step seems less attractive. This may apply to other soldiers who would otherwise be looking to expand their horizons and take on the leadership and responsibility being an officer provides.

Any thoughts, particularly on the SSC/IRC changeover rather than analysing my particular case, in order to remain relevant to a wider audience!
The issues relating to SSC/IRC changeover are significant at the moment. There are many young men and women upset at not being selected for conversion this year, leaving them just next year for success! However, I understand that the Army Board have been invited to consider a change in the process. That change would see officers being offered a conversion of commission rather than having to apply for one. On the one hand that should be considered to be beneficial, in that officers would know that they are wanted by the system; on the other it may be difficult to bring people through to the point at which they will get their commission converted, before they cut and run.
Beige list is currently suppressed - less Capts to Maj. Accordingly, conv of commission is less prevalent too (if you don't have at least IRC, no Beige). It is a good manning lever (8 years worth of SSC and hopefully only retain the best with an IRC).

The problem is the paucity of captains - suppressing award of IRCs to similarly feed less into the Beige chain might be a contributory factor, the other might be that YOs these days (IMHO) get to do a lot early in their career and probably weigh up the thought of Desk jobs or similar role in perpetuity until they get beige and later command. A lot I have known a few years behind me have just upped sticks, having achieved all they want from their commission within 4 or 5 years - stuff that took me considerably longer. They can't see the light.

A further complication is LE scaling - are you intending to go LE commission or DE? LEs are commissioning with an LE IRC now (10 yrs service).

I would add that getting an IRC (16 yr point) as a good officer is probably likely, even in this climate, the problem may come when applying to convert to RegC (to retirement). Without that you WILL NOT hit Lt Col and will probably say goodbye after your subsequent SO2 job as a maj.
Could someone please give a quick list of the meanings of the acronyms (IRC,SSC?) used in this thread. Sorry couldn't find them on the wiki.
SSC - short service commission. Awarded as a 3 year deal, extended to up to 8 years. IRC - intermediate regular commission. 16 years. Awarded after recommendations and a board sits to assess suitabiity. RegC - regular commission. To retirement (well 55 at least) some get one straight away due to welbeck or cadetships etc, but normally applied for and boarded