Budget 2010 - Options, News, Analysis, Crayoning

#1
Interesting day today. Darling will obviously see this as an opportunity to throw himself and his boss a lifeline and five more years. But I will be interested to see what he does and how he does it.

Some of the bigger, headline facts ahead of the budget will play. For example, we currently have lower unemployment than anyone expected. We have had stronger growth than anyone expected, although this is incredibly precarious. Retail and manufacturing are both ahead of the curve. Public sector borrowing – expected even by Darling to be £178bn is lower at £170bn. If you were to look at those figures as just a snapshot and ignored all the massive and obvious mistakes that Labour have made with the economy, it would look quite rosy.

Some mooted ideas look positively stupid. One of the underlying reasons for the big problems we have just been through, the property bubble, was that house prices were growing too quickly. So to remove stamp duty for first time buyers up to £250k to give a boost to the market is populist and dangerous. We don’t need more people owning their own homes and getting back into this mess again.

Tax cuts at the moment would be absolutely stupid as well, including removing any already planned hikes in fuel duty etc. Perhaps a reduction in other sales taxes (VAT and IPT) might help a little bit.

Massively swinging an axe through government spending at this point in the recovery would also be stupid. It would guarantee a return to the recession. But this time with massive unemployment. I am not saying that the government isn’t too big and paying too many people, but we need to reduce its size slowly over a couple of years.

Beyond that, I don’t see what else there is left for him to actually play with. He can’t reduce corp taxes because we are desperate. He won’t dare reduce pensions or income support. He has already set out his stall in respect of personal taxes.

What I will be looking for is a controlled, measured reduction of the size of government. Benefit reform. Increased support for green technologies. No big grandstand tax giveaways or tax penalties bullying specific sectors. I am not sure that he will be able to control himself though. I would also like to see him announce the end of PFI, or at least admit it is government debt. But I should bloody well coco.


What will others be expecting / looking for?
 
#2
politicians are all bloody thieves. whatever comes from this budget is going to be more theft from the Taxpayers pockets.

bloody government bragging about lowest ever council tax but ours in Bury Manchester has risen due to mismanagement by our council.

really pisses me off that more than a third of my income is stolen from me to be squandered by politicians who have totally lost touch with those of us who have to pay for their excesses and financial experiments. im fed up with having to pay for the workshy, the immigrants, the criminals and bankers that are a leaking abscess on the carcass of our once proud nation.

And what really gets to me is that the political scum that are running this country have voted themselves a payrise whilst expecting the rest of us to pay higher taxes to pay off the national debt they have brought on us.

so we have a budget today filled with "promises" by a government that has repeatedly lied to us over and over again. how much are they going to hit the working TAXPAYER whilst increasing the benefits for those who pay nothing into the public coffers?

I work for a living but do not earn vast amounts of money. i own a mortgage and a car. i dont smoke and dont drink to excess. i claim no benefits and pay my taxes.

i know one thing from this budget. it will only make me worse off when im struggling already. i doubt very much anyones dole or benefits will be reduced

:x
 
#3
Bazzinho1977 said:
Some of the bigger, headline facts ahead of the budget will play. For example, we currently have lower unemployment than anyone expected. We have had stronger growth than anyone expected, although this is incredibly precarious. Retail and manufacturing are both ahead of the curve. Public sector borrowing – expected even by Darling to be £178bn is lower at £170bn. If you were to look at those figures as just a snapshot and ignored all the massive and obvious mistakes that Labour have made with the economy, it would look quite rosy.
Unemployment is lower, but joblessness is higher.

Growth is stronger than some predictions, but still well below the PBR forecasts, and likely to remain so for some time, which implications for the deficit and debt.

Manufacturing reported awful results last week.

And £170bn of borrowing as opposed to £178bn in a single year is emphatically not good news, and should not be spun as such.

Oh, and you forgot to mention the National Debt, currently expected to reach around £1.5 trillion by 2014/15.

So not sure how you make this out to be quite rosy. But good effort.

What am I looking for? Some sign of a serious intent to reduce the deficit and pay down the debt. That means the results of a spending review, and an indication of where cuts will be made. Efficiency savings are illusory (look at the impact of Gershon). Government has to make hard decisions about where it will cut spending otherwise the UK public finances will continue on their drive to the cliff edge.

What am I expecting? A political budget that tries to give the minimum of reassurance to the markets, whilst using what little cash there is to provide a pre election bung to voters.
 

Fronty

Old-Salt
Book Reviewer
#4
Don't forget that the middle classes (well, everyone that has a job and pays tax) will get a shafting of royal proportions.
 
#5
P2000 said:
Bazzinho1977 said:
Some of the bigger, headline facts ahead of the budget will play. For example, we currently have lower unemployment than anyone expected. We have had stronger growth than anyone expected, although this is incredibly precarious. Retail and manufacturing are both ahead of the curve. Public sector borrowing – expected even by Darling to be £178bn is lower at £170bn. If you were to look at those figures as just a snapshot and ignored all the massive and obvious mistakes that Labour have made with the economy, it would look quite rosy.
Unemployment is lower, but joblessness is higher.

Growth is stronger than some predictions, but still well below the PBR forecasts, and likely to remain so for some time, which implications for the deficit and debt.

Manufacturing reported awful results last week.

And £170bn of borrowing as opposed to £178bn in a single year is emphatically not good news, and should not be spun as such.

Oh, and you forgot to mention the National Debt, currently expected to reach around £1.5 trillion by 2014/15.

So not sure how you make this out to be quite rosy. But good effort.

What am I looking for? Some sign of a serious intent to reduce the deficit and pay down the debt. That means the results of a spending review, and an indication of where cuts will be made. Efficiency savings are illusory (look at the impact of Gershon). Government has to make hard decisions about where it will cut spending otherwise the UK public finances will continue on their drive to the cliff edge.

What am I expecting? A political budget that tries to give the minimum of reassurance to the markets, whilst using what little cash there is to provide a pre election bung to voters.
You have completely misunderstood my point. Not sure whether wilfully or not. The point being that it could be easily spun that things are actually positive. Thought I had made that pretty clear. If not, I hope I am doing so now.

NB - growth is below the PBR forecast? What for Q4 09? Are you sure on that? I don't believe it is.
 
#6
He's just given wealthy first time house buyers a substantial boost; no Stamp Duty to be paid for houses under £250,000.

If you are in the business of paying >£1m for your gaff - bad luck!

Litotes
 
#7
Fook Me

Some Clever Feckers on this site

Magic
 
#8
Darling calls for an "internationally co-ordinated tax on banks" read this as "a never going to happen tax because the individual governments are idiots". However, the tories are claiming they will put in their own. Presumably meaning that they don't expect all their friends to walk away from UK banking centres if they do that.

Not sure who has the most stupid policy.
 
#9
Litotes said:
He's just given wealthy first time house buyers a substantial boost; no Stamp Duty to be paid for houses under £250,000.

If you are in the business of paying >£1m for your gaff - bad luck!

Litotes
Actually, I think he has re-introduced rampant house price inflation, certainly for the majority of buyers.
 
#10
Bazzinho1977 said:
Massively swinging an axe through government spending at this point in the recovery would also be stupid. It would guarantee a return to the recession. But this time with massive unemployment. I am not saying that the government isn’t too big and paying too many people, but we need to reduce its size slowly over a couple of years.
This country needs a prompt and substantial reduction in the size of government: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/camilla_cavendish/article6676933.ece

Free up the private sector to provide jobs instead of taxing it to death and smothering the remnants in red tape.

If you want to see how the Irish managed it, read this: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/libby_purves/article7070306.ece

msr
 
#13
I doubt that we will hear much more than the headlines for the time being; most of the detail is hidden in the Budget report and will trickle out over the next few days as the experts drill down into the details.

I'm off to buy some strong cider!

Litotes
 
#14
At one point it seemed less like a Budget, and more like an Ashcroft witch hunt.

Its pretty pathetic, even for Labour, to hound a man who is well within the law. Im sure HMRC would love to pay him a visit if you have evidence to the contrary!
 
#15
So erm, some quite clever POLITICAL manoeuvres in there. My thoughts (all a mad scramble – just got out of a meeting)

Highlighting that in future everybody will have the right to a bank account. Good. About time the banks stopped messing about with this. I support this move – they had it their own way for far too long.

The stamp duty bottom moving up seemed a silly decision to me ahead of the budget. But linking it to an increase in £1m plus homes is quite clever. It will increase pressure at the bottom of the market “hard working first time buyers” and reduce the sales pressure at the top “those rich city bankers”. Or that is obviously how they see it playing. I agree with the 5% rate at the top, but not so sure on the reduction at the bottom – or how you police whether someone is a first time buyer.

The over 60s worker getting an easier ride? Obviously a play to the fact that our population is getting older and the old are more likely to vote. As cynically political as you can imagine, but probably affordable.

Decent hike on the savings limit for ISAs. I imagine that most on here will be pleased about that – along with the inflation rise guaranteed from then on. Again, I think this is a positive. Now if we could only get the interest rates back up…..

Reduction in the growth forecast for 2011 – ssshhhh. He might be moving towards an honest assessment of growth at this rate.

Levelling out the petrol price rise – stupid, stupid, stupid. This is the worst bit of news in the entire budget. I am so sick of our chancellors being beholden to the oil industry. He has also gone for the green tech investment card. You can’t DO both of these at the same time.

The promise on moves from the capital. What tosh. What absolute tosh. This simply wont happen. It is an attempt to move workers jobs to the Labour hearltands. They have already moved an awful lot up there.

Finally, the announcement on lending to small businesses is encouraging and the right thing. But it simply wont be delivered, and is posturing for the public.
 
#16
I note that there hasn't been a General Election giveaway in the usual sense of the phrase. There were a few tweaks and some tax increases and reductions in the future, but nothing I heard would excite the electorate or the Labour Party faithful. The biggest cheer from the PLP came from the potential mauling of Lord Ashcroft.

But there wasn't anything in there to support the Labour Party's campaign to be re-elected.

Have I missed something? Or is the country so badly mired in the brown and smelly stuff that even a Labour Chancellor cannot find anything to cheer the body politic towards a General Election in just 6 week's time?

Litotes
 
#17
Litotes said:
Have I missed something? Or is the country so badly mired in the brown and smelly stuff that even a Labour Chancellor cannot find anything to cheer the body politic towards a General Election in just 6 week's time?

Litotes
I suggest GB and Labour arnt as stupid as they appear and is looking for ways NOT to be reelected, leaving the next goverment to be really in the brown smelling stuff ..
 
#18
Litotes said:
I note that there hasn't been a General Election giveaway in the usual sense of the phrase. There were a few tweaks and some tax increases and reductions in the future, but nothing I heard would excite the electorate or the Labour Party faithful. The biggest cheer from the PLP came from the potential mauling of Lord Ashcroft.

But there wasn't anything in there to support the Labour Party's campaign to be re-elected.

Have I missed something? Or is the country so badly mired in the brown and smelly stuff that even a Labour Chancellor cannot find anything to cheer the body politic towards a General Election in just 6 week's time?

Litotes
I think it is quite shrewd. I had vowed, that as much as it would pain me, if he proposed a big cash giveaway bonanza, then I would vote for the feckless eejits in charge of the tories. His softly softly, bit of honesty bit of spin approach is what we are used to.
 
#19
Bazzinho1977 said:
Interesting day today. Darling will obviously see this as an opportunity to throw himself and his boss a lifeline and five more years. But I will be interested to see what he does and how he does it.

Some of the bigger, headline facts ahead of the budget will play. For example, we currently have lower unemployment than anyone expected. We have had stronger growth than anyone expected, although this is incredibly precarious. Retail and manufacturing are both ahead of the curve. Public sector borrowing – expected even by Darling to be £178bn is lower at £170bn. If you were to look at those figures as just a snapshot and ignored all the massive and obvious mistakes that Labour have made with the economy, it would look quite rosy.

Some mooted ideas look positively stupid. One of the underlying reasons for the big problems we have just been through, the property bubble, was that house prices were growing too quickly. So to remove stamp duty for first time buyers up to £250k to give a boost to the market is populist and dangerous. We don’t need more people owning their own homes and getting back into this mess again.

Tax cuts at the moment would be absolutely stupid as well, including removing any already planned hikes in fuel duty etc. Perhaps a reduction in other sales taxes (VAT and IPT) might help a little bit.

Massively swinging an axe through government spending at this point in the recovery would also be stupid. It would guarantee a return to the recession. But this time with massive unemployment. I am not saying that the government isn’t too big and paying too many people, but we need to reduce its size slowly over a couple of years.

Beyond that, I don’t see what else there is left for him to actually play with. He can’t reduce corp taxes because we are desperate. He won’t dare reduce pensions or income support. He has already set out his stall in respect of personal taxes.

What I will be looking for is a controlled, measured reduction of the size of government. Benefit reform. Increased support for green technologies. No big grandstand tax giveaways or tax penalties bullying specific sectors. I am not sure that he will be able to control himself though. I would also like to see him announce the end of PFI, or at least admit it is government debt. But I should bloody well coco.


What will others be expecting / looking for?
Please define "unemployment". One of the underlying problems with the UK economy is that far too may people are classified as "employed" through various schemes, which pay those "employed" from the public purse - the same purse which pays dole to the, er, unemployed.

I see that later on in your post you refer to benefit reform, however, so maybe this is where we will see some reduction in those employed, unemployed persons, if you see what I mean. unfortunately reforming the benefits system is likely to be a real vote loser for whichever party has the balls to do it.

It is my own opinion that martial law will be required to restore public order. Preferably before a breakdown in public order occurs. But thats just wishful thinking.

The real tragedy is that those in receipt of benefits are probably a bit like land mine detonation victims. In that it take three or more people to look after a land mine victim and about the same number of civil servants to look after each benefits recipient.
 
#20
eodmatt said:
Please define "unemployment". One of the underlying problems with the UK economy is that far too may people are classified as "employed" through various schemes, which pay those "employed" from the public purse - the same purse which pays dole to the, er, unemployed.

I see that later on in your post you refer to benefit reform, however, so maybe this is where we will see some reduction in those employed, unemployed persons, if you see what I mean. unfortunately reforming the benefits system is likely to be a real vote loser for whichever party has the balls to do it.

It is my own opinion that martial law will be required to restore public order. Preferably before a breakdown in public order occurs. But thats just wishful thinking.

The real tragedy is that those in receipt of benefits are probably a bit like land mine detonation victims. In that it take three or more people to look after a land mine victim and about the same number of civil servants to look after each benefits recipient.
Do you mean schemes like the Youth Training Scheme or different benefit schemes like Incapacity Benefit? There is a difference between unemployment figures and joblessness and one of the key problems we face at the moment - under-employment (people working reduced hours to keep a job during a recession). This raises for some the issue that they also thenr eceive WFTC and similar - benefits in all but name.

You are right that whomsoever decides to sort out the benefits culture and system would be shooting themselves in the foot. The only people brave enough to say it have been the Libdems. But then, they know they aren't getting in to power, so can say what they like. We should vote them in and really crap them up. Let them sort out the things they have promised and then turf them out again.
 

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