Britain is still in recession while France & Germany Emerge

#1
Telegraph : Britain is still in recession: decline continues
Britain hopes of escaping recession were dashed today after figures showed that the economy is stuck in its worst recession on record.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-is-still-in-recession-decline-continues.html

The economy unexpectedly shrank 0.4pc in the third quarter, defying expectations in the City that it would have grown for the first time since the start of last year. Its contraction for six straight quarters is now the worst in modern history.

<snip>

Britain's services sector, which accounts for the lion's share of the economy, and industrial production both shrank in the quarter. And the economy remains mired in the downturn despite a blitz of measures designed to prevent it tipping into depression that began with the injection of £47bn into Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group in October last year.

The recent uptick in houses prices and the return to profits of many City institutions had buoyed hopes that the worst was over. However, the Bank of England warned earlier this month that the strength of a rebound remains 'highly uncertain' given the strains still facing banks, businesses and consumers.

Britain also looks increasingly likely to be the only major economy not to have emerged from recession by the end of September. France, Germany and Japan exited in the second quarter; China's growth raced along at a 8.9pc pace in the third quarter and most believe that the US, the world's biggest economy, is out of recession although official confirmation has yet to arrive.
So, it doesn't look as if we'll pull through into growth by the end of the year as per Darling's forecasts. And we still don't seem to be any better at predicting the performance of the economy than we were before the bust, as Ashley Seager points out in the Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/oct/23/uk-recession-economists-dismal :

So, there we have it, the recession is the longest since quarterly records began in 1955 and, guess what, the City again failed to predict it.

The average forecast from economists in the Square Mile was that the economy had expanded by 0.2% in the July to September period. But in fact, according to the ONS's preliminary figures, it contracted by 0.4% - the sixth drop in a row. That's a big forecasting error, really big.
Still waiting for the light at the end of the tunnel...

Charlie
 
#2
Its getting to the stage where the governments economic policy may be hurting the recovery, not helping it.

Instead of printing money to give out on benefits, what if it was used instead to force HBOS/Lloyds to give out cheap loans to companies?

We are just bouncing along to bottom at the moment...
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#3
Majorpain said:
Its getting to the stage where the governments economic policy may be hurting the recovery, not helping it.

Instead of printing money to give out on benefits, what if it was used instead to force HBOS/Lloyds to give out cheap loans to companies?

We are just bouncing along to bottom at the moment...
Bouncing is too optimistic, even the flatline looks like it may suffer a battery failure.... :)
 
#4
The Brownshirts have repeatedly told the public that Guru Brown is in charge and there is no better. So this must aall be Tory(graph) Lies!!!!
 
#5
It's well known that within the city recovery has returned although slowly but out in the real world its still in recession,
The banks have still too much power & have carried on as if nothing has happened & the Government is still standing by allowing it, also banks are witholding credit to companies/businesses, the GDP within manufacturing will continue to fall & unemployment is stagnant even though temp/seasonal workers will be taken on for the build up to xmas
consumer confidence is still low, society still has major debt problems that we can not simply ignore, it will only get worse once the vat is restored on Jan 1st,
 
#6
beemer007 said:
The banks have still too much power & have carried on as if nothing has happened & the Government is still standing by allowing it,
The City is now more powerful than the government. Since Maggie's deregulation of the financial services industry in the 80s, successive governments have come to rely on tax income from the City as other industries headed east.

The City now accounts for about 30% of the government's tax revenue. Banking business is no longer conducted over 5 hour lunches in gentlemen's clubs. It's conducted over the phone and Internet from anywhere in the world.

Barclays have already put the government on warning that they'll relocate to Hong Kong if tax and regulation rises much more. Hedge funds are fleeing to Switzerland as fast as they can rent office space. 'Freedom Tower' will be opening in Manhattan in the near future. That building alone could accommodate much of the City if they moved out.

If the City moves out, we'd have a choice between cancelling all welfare payments and leaving people to starve or disbanding the NHS, state deucation system and armed forces. That's the scale of the threat.


beemer007 said:
also banks are witholding credit to companies/businesses,
They're only withholding credit from UK businesses. Lending abroad is much more profitable and less risky than lending in the UK that's still mired in recession.

Gordon should have thought of that when he drafted the contracts for the bailout. Just like he should have thought about Fred the Shred's pension arrangements. Just like he should have thought about taking non-voting shares in bailed out banks instead of being able to exercise control over pay and bonuses like the US government can.

Gordon: He isn't a financial messiah or even an iron Chancellor. He's a tw@t who got taken for a ride by the sharks in the City.
 
#7
I shall wait with baited breath for paperpuke to show up and explain to us how this is wrong and Gordon the Eye Eyed Porridge Wog is the greatest economic genius that has ever bestrode the Earth.
 
#8
gordo the grate is a fcuking imbecile.

The rest of his party aren't much better, at best they are fcuktards.

They haven't got a clue what to do, or what the mythical land of 'real world' is actually like.

After bringing the country to her knees in a much more efficient manner and brutal approach than Hitler, the IRA and any other enemy, foreign and domestic, they still think they are the right tools for the job.
 
#10
Germany and France might be on the road to recovery, but it's just a pity that the other 14 Euro Currency Member States are dragging them down And they probably will do for a very long, long time after the UK is on the straight and narrow.

Personaly speaking I think that the latest figures are a Labour Conspiracy to keep the Pounds value from increasing and to stop the down trodden and unwashed from going to the Med or Canaries for Christmas.
 
#11
The only signs of 'recovery' anyway were the rate of decline slowing. It's hardly what you could call a recovery in the real sense of the word. We're probably into a depression now, rising fuel taxes (putting up the price of everything) tanked pound (imports mega expensive), oh and Cyclops promising to save the world from climate change (fcuk loads of more green taxes then). Loads of people who are still working on reduced wages/short time and households saddled with huge debts. The UK is fooked at the moment.

Strikes, bankrupt country, social unrest at immigration etc, corrupt politicians......Well, Tony and Gordon, is this what you set out to do way back in '97?

Probably is actually 8O
 
#12
heard_it_all_before said:
Personaly speaking I think that the latest figures are a Labour Conspiracy to keep the Pounds value from increasing
The policy of photocopying fivers in the basement of the Bank of England ensures that the pound wont be increasing in value any time soon. It's already heading for an 'Andrex' rating on the foreign currency markets.

The fact that the government now depends on this cash for nearly a third of its expenditure means that Gordon wont be switching off the Xerox machines any time soon.

Why do you think all those ads have started appearing on telly inviting us to sell our 'unwanted' gold? The price of gold is at an all time high as anybody with any sense turns their cash into something more solid before our impending hyperinflation and currency crash.
 
#13
Ancient_Mariner said:
Why do you think all those ads have started appearing on telly inviting us to sell our 'unwanted' gold? The price of gold is at an all time high as anybody with any sense turns their cash into something more solid before our impending hyperinflation and currency crash.
No, that can't be right, Cyclops and Darling assure us we're in a period of deflation. Are you suggesting that those two political and economic titans are actually a couple of shifty chancers who couldn't be trusted to run a tuck shop :?

Labour bankrupting the country - who'd have thunk it 8O :lol: :evil:
 
#14
Gordo,had spent all the goodies before the recession hit,it was serendipity that the start of the global crisis came along at just the right time for him to lay the blame on everyone else,and disguise the fact that he is the worst Chancellor/PM this country has ever had! :roll:

The only chance this country has,is a General Election,preferably before Christmas! :wink:
 
#15
Typical is it not?

Where are 'ashie', 'parapuke', 'Sven' and the new lame-brain on the block -'llech', when they are needed?

We urgently require them to reassure us that all is well on the financial front and that 'Clown', 'Captain' Darling and Mr. Mandelson have everything under control?
 
#16
I'm obviously a bit thick. If we produce cars, pharmaceuticals, whisky etc then I can't see how producing more money to chase that given supply of stuff does us any good. People say "the economy needs credit", but a business is worth something because it produces earnings, a house because it is worth rent. If businesses and houses have had their prices bid up to ridiculous levels, unjustified by earnings and prices, then allowing the indebted owner to remain the owner by creating artificially low interest rates, and allowing the banks to continue trading when they are insolvent, seems to me to be an arse's strategy.

How about - i) banks go bust, investors lose all their dough, bondholders lose their dough, administrator sells assets to new owner, and bank with no debts opens the next day. ii) Indebted businesses and householders go bust and people who aren't complete cocks buy the businesses and houses at prices justified by the earnings and rents. iii) Economy continues, producing cars, pharmaceuticals, whisky, with low inflation, owners with brains, normal interest rates, a sound currency, no risk of hyperinflation.....

I mean, how difficult is it?

[What they are going to do is keep going with funny money until we get enough inflation to bail everyone out. 1970's anyone?]
 
#17
Harsh. But not without justification.Thank **** I live and work abroad and get paid in foreign currencies.
 
#18
Politics is about ideas! Try this one for size.
Our Uncle kevin (Rudd the PM in Australia) had a cunning plan, to energize the economy by injecting money!! Wow!! Guess what, its worked.

Funnily enough, all your bona fide tax payers, moi included got $900.00 deposited in their bank account. Well you can imagine my joy at getting this.!!
Needless to say I spent it, hey I'm female and I like shoes.

The pitty is your PM doesn't have the same imagination as Uncle Kev.....as I said politics is abouty ideas....thank God I migrated here. Advance Ausstralia Fair......now come on you lovely pommie chaps...advise your PM to get spending. And for pitty sake stop whinging! :)
 
#19
Erm scuse typos.....its late here...lol
Plus I need to get off this site, its seriously addictive!

Bye Possums :p
 
#20
zazabell_012 said:
Politics is about ideas! Try this one for size.
Our Uncle kevin (Rudd the PM in Australia) had a cunning plan, to energize the economy by injecting money!! Wow!! Guess what, its worked.

Funnily enough, all your bona fide tax payers, moi included got $900.00 deposited in their bank account. Well you can imagine my joy at getting this.!!Needless to say I spent it, hey I'm female and I like shoes.

The pitty is your PM doesn't have the same imagination as Uncle Kev.....as I said politics is abouty ideas....thank God I migrated here. Advance Ausstralia Fair......now come on you lovely pommie chaps...advise your PM to get spending. And for pitty sake stop whinging! :)
You and everyone else in Australia who received the money, ZZB!

Here in GB, we just gave it to the banks who have carefully hoarded it or used it for a bit of speculation - so that they can then pay massive bonuses!!!!

But do remember that Australia has also had a massive boost from the mining industry - China is converting its stock of devalued US dollars into metals and other commodities. We haven't had that good fortune; we squandered our oil and gas resources in the North Sea a lot sooner.

Litotes
 

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