Brexit - The Final

I will take challenge that assertation, and correct it:
2 polls in the last month have Brexit Party "way out in the lead" ; 2 others with what I will describe a "healthy lead" (for want of a better description) and 4 with a very modest lead. When you take into account the accuracy of polls, it is not as clear-cut as you suggest.

Latest, Comres poll has Brexit party at 27%, Labour at 25%, Tories at 15% and Lib-Dems at 13%.

I will take the opinion poll data before the Referendum as an example of how they can get it wrong:
4/6 Polls run on 22nd June 2016 had Remain as ahead (one by a clear 10%), only 2 had Leave ahead, and those only predicted either a 1 or 2% result in leave favour.

So whilst it is fair to state that Opinion polls suggest that the Brexit party may well end up with largest share of the European Election votes, your statement is inaccurate.

I would suggest, rather, that there is still plenty to play for from all sides.

editted to tidy up a couple of typos
You may want to factor in the 'shy Tory factor' into your analysis.

Shy Tory factor - Wikipedia

I would also contend that there may be a 'shy Brexit effect' as well. Some people (possibly even some remainers who are sick of prevarication and lies from the incumbent politicians), are loath to publicise their Brexit voting intentions (accusations of 'racist', 'thick' and 'gammon' and other silly, trite expressions being bandied about might have something to do with it).
 
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Morning all,

Just back from Lisbon and had a little catch-up with the last two days banter.

I see nothing has changed much......
 

Pob02

LE
Book Reviewer
Fair point, but you also need to take into account the local elections (where the Brexit party was not standing). Both the Tories and Labour took a hammering - the Tories being hit harder than Labour. And that was actual votes, not an opinion poll.
As you point out, Brexit Party were not involved in that election. Also, for some, local issues may have been a deciding factor in which box was ticked.

As such hard to really correlate this to the Euro elections, however they do indicate, as do the directly related polls to the Euo-elections, support dropping from the 2 major parties.
They also showed a clear move from UKIP, and more support for Lib-Dems. at least at a local govt level.

In summary the Local Elections results, do not change the point I made.
 

Pob02

LE
Book Reviewer
You may want to factor in the 'shy Tory factor' into your analysis.

Shy Tory factor - Wikipedia

I would also contend that there may be a 'shy Brexit effect' as well. Some people (possibly even some remainers who are sick of prevarication and lies from the incumbent politicians), are loath to publicise their Brexit voting intentions (accusations of 'racist', 'thick' and 'gammon' and other silly, trite expressions being bandied about might have something to do with it).
There is also a "Shy Lib-Dem factor . .people do not want to be labelled as "Limp-Dem" and some are (quite rightly) embarrased by the Lib-Dem performance when they were in the Coalition Govt.

There is always a numbr of elements/factors in paly, which is why polling data is not definitive, but purely an indication.

As such I stand my my earlier point, to wit "....whilst it is fair to state that Opinion polls suggest that the Brexit party may well end up with largest share of the European Election votes, your statement is inaccurate.

I would suggest, rather, that there is still plenty to play for from all sides."
 
Is some of the anti-EU vote going to be a way of sticking up two fingers to Marcon?
Wordsmith
Not really, although he is distancing himself from it already.
The posters for his party feature "En Marche" (his party) then a very large photo of the candidates round here with the exhortation to vote writ large.
At the very bottom is a small banner with "Avec Emmanuel Macron" attached, almost as an afterthought.
His spin doctors certainly realise how unloved he is outside the bubble.
 
I will take challenge that assertation, and correct it:
2 polls in the last month have Brexit Party "way out in the lead" ; 2 others with what I will describe a "healthy lead" (for want of a better description) and 4 with a very modest lead. When you take into account the accuracy of polls, it is not as clear-cut as you suggest.

Latest, Comres poll has Brexit party at 27%, Labour at 25%, Tories at 15% and Lib-Dems at 13%.

I will take the opinion poll data before the Referendum as an example of how they can get it wrong:
4/6 Polls run on 22nd June 2016 had Remain as ahead (one by a clear 10%), only 2 had Leave ahead, and those only predicted either a 1 or 2% result in leave favour.

So whilst it is fair to state that Opinion polls suggest that the Brexit party may well end up with largest share of the European Election votes, your statement is inaccurate.

I would suggest, rather, that there is still plenty to play for from all sides.

editted to tidy up a couple of typos
Did you see the first bit that said, "flying in the face of reasonable expectation"? No, oh well...

Do any of the polls, commentators or armchair pundits have the Conservative or Labour parties 'winning'?

Unlike the the referendum, this upcoming European parliamentary election ties in to the complete abortion going horribly wrong that is Brexit. Unlike the referendum, there was a very good and very recent indicator of the public mood, the local elections in which the Conservative party was humiliated and Labour fared little better while the LibDems, Independents and Greens (in that order) did very well. Had Farage fielded similar amounts of candidates then, how do you think it would have gone?

My argument is not about the rights or wrongs of the Brexit party taking the trophy... as a political party I doubt very much that it has much of a future but... it is about the fact that TBP is a conveniently arrived omnibus bus for yet another protest vote by a large proportion of disgruntled voters, all disillusioned / angry /exasperated whatever you will by the duplicity of the Conservatives and the dithering yeah but no but yeah of the Labour Party.

To suggest the Conservative party may do well really is head in the sand stuff. Even the Conservatives have given up trying to spin this one and are saying ’we're doomed'.
 
The morning states with brexit reality... A crap idea, based upon paranoia, will do nothing to help delusions, only fools fell for the lies.

Will new laws about fake news, hate crimes and political truth make a difference? No because they are too late. 17.4 million have already been permanently damaged by propaganda.
You've been permanently damaged by radiation. Try putting the door back on the microwave oven.
 
Just up the road from me, I might pop in and say hello for you
He's certainly getting around; he was in Merthyr Tydfil yesterday.
 
The Leave camp has politicians in it.
Some of them must have lied.
That's why I judge them by their actions not their words.
Ah must have lied, therefore you are assuming they lied.

What effect have these lies had?

What lies have those advocating remain told?

What effect have these lies had?
 

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