Brexit - The Final

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Trouble is the leader is selected by MPs, who as we have been told, know better than their Party members.

The way the Party is going the MPs will select Rudd who will promptly lose her seat at the GE.:rolleyes:
On t'other hand.

David Gauke Facing Vote of No Confidence -
Guido has had sight of the petition with the requisite 50 members of the South West Hertfordshire Conservative Association amassed to force a confidence vote in David Gauke. The group’s leaders met with Gauke over the weekend, hoping to change his mind on ruling out No Deal, instead they came away resigned to the conclusion that Gauke “will never be in favour of anything other than a Customs Union.” They are reluctantly proceeding with their deselection push…
Not a bright idea to be a Remain supporting MP in a Brexit supporting seat and with a Brexit supporting constituency association.

It's best not to know better than your constituency association who can deselect you...

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
So you don't think that, just possbly, the Tories could be losing support from:
a) Those who would previously have supported them, but are also in favour of Remaining in the EU
b) Those who have previously voted for them, as no "acceptable"alternative to the more right-wing side of things, who now see either UKIP (how is beyond me as they seem to have attracted a little of the lunatice fringe to them), or The Brexit "we have no policies advertised (less one, but even then we have not outlined any workable plan on how this shoudl work), but nevermind, we are a great bet, honest, as Our Nige is a bladdy 'ero I tell you" Party as viable alternatives.
c) Those who might have previously voted for them, but are so annoyed at the failure of May to deliver what her government has promised that they are willing to look elsewhere.
d) The usual protest votes loons
e) The usual (smaller) number of voters who swap about between parties anyway?

Now draw a venn diagram and starting fitting all this lot together with the number of people who now say they would vote remain.
Really?

Then why did the Tory vote fall off the edge of a cliff in the days immediately after they failed to Brexit on March 29th?

If your analysis is true, the change should have taken place over time; not immediately after May failed to deliver Brexit.

Wordsmith
 

Bagl0ck

On ROPS
On ROPs

Read into that what you will.
10% of the Headbangers vote for kipper-esque parties.

At the European elections another 15% of Eurosceptics vote for them too.

Nothing unusual based on that data
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
I don't know what normal is even anymore. I actually am scared to open new Google news/ BBC or even my Facebook page (yes- I am ancient) for the fear of just coming across depressing world news. I really do.

Giving up on news broadcasts ( and Lent always presents a first rate excuse for 40 days ) is the sign of a healthy mind trying to protect itself.

Good quote from your native land , from one of Bill Clinton's media gangsters back in the day

" News broadcasters think they are in the information business. They are not; they are in the entertainment business'
 

Pob02

LE
Book Reviewer
Really?

Then why did the Tory vote fall off the edge of a cliff in the days immediately after they failed to Brexit on March 29th?

If your analysis is true, the change should have taken place over time; not immediately after May failed to deliver Brexit.

Wordsmith
They have actually been fairly steady in polls (these are Euro parliament voting intention polls, since 10-11 April.
10-11 April 16%
9-12 April 17%
15-16 April 15%
16 April 18%
16-17 April 17%

If we go back to before the 29th March date we had
12-15 March 28%
28-30 March 24%
Maybe a trip off a curb, rather than a fall off a cliff when you also take into account the emergence of 2 new choices in the form of Farage and Co, and the Tiggers.

Non of this, of course, negates the polls suggesteing that more people would now vote remian than leave if the referendum was held today.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
On t'other hand.

David Gauke Facing Vote of No Confidence -


Not a bright idea to be a Remain supporting MP in a Brexit supporting seat and with a Brexit supporting constituency association.

It's best not to know better than your constituency association who can deselect you...

Wordsmith
If he is deselected by his CP will he have the whip taken away from him or will he be allowed to see out his time as a lame-duck Tory MP?

If the whip is withdrawn then he is another ChangeUK candidate.
 

Read into that what you will.
I note that the Lib Dems, Change UK and UKIP appear to need the use of a defibrillator as they seem to have flat-lined.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor

Read into that what you will.
Brexit Party seem to have taken a big jump without a corresponding drop, except from Lab which wouldn't really account for the difference.
 
On t'other hand.

David Gauke Facing Vote of No Confidence -


Not a bright idea to be a Remain supporting MP in a Brexit supporting seat and with a Brexit supporting constituency association.

It's best not to know better than your constituency association who can deselect you...

Wordsmith
Edward Leigh has just asked why "having pissed off" leavers his colleagues are now following a Liberal agenda. Hopefully a video clip will appear of that later. It reflects some of the the frustration within the Conservative party.
 
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Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
I know it is just a pictorial view but the rises by Brexit, Greens and ChangeUK don't seem to add up to the losses by UKIP and Labour. Still as a picture it probably is pretty close - not that polls are much use as accurate guesses on the actual election.

The other factor is the polls only count if Brexit run candidates in all the constituency areas.

'Tis very complicamated
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Non of this, of course, negates the polls suggesting that more people would now vote remain than leave if the referendum was held today.
Again, as said before, the Tory vote would not have collapsed if that were the case. By not executing Brexit, the Tories would have satisfied the majority of the voters and their vote would be holding up.

The Tories problems are down to one simple fact: May made a pig's ear of Brexit and has destroyed trust in the party. Voters are deserting it.

The same thing happened in September 1992 when the UK was forced out of the ERM. The Tories lost their reputation for economic competence and let Labour in for 15 years.

Wordsmith
 

Bagl0ck

On ROPS
On ROPs
Again, as said before, the Tory vote would not have collapsed if that were the case. By not executing Brexit, the Tories would have satisfied the majority of the voters and their vote would be holding up.

The Tories problems are down to one simple fact: May made a pig's ear of Brexit and has destroyed trust in the party. Voters are deserting it.

The same thing happened in September 1992 when the UK was forced out of the ERM. The Tories lost their reputation for economic competence and let Labour in for 15 years.

Wordsmith
Of course brexit as party policy has trashed that reputation, once again
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Of course brexit as party policy has trashed that reputation, once again
Do you continually have to show that you are a congenital idiot all the time.
 

Bagl0ck

On ROPS
On ROPs
Do you continually have to show that you are a congenital idiot all the time.
By saying what the specialists have been saying for a long time...

Obviously the government pursuing brexit loses any kudos for economic competence

Brexit costs UK £600m a week

A report highlighting the economic impact of Brexit uncertainty on the country, estimates that it has cost the UK around £600m per week since the referendum

This would mean that in the 145 weeks since the referendum the total cost to the UK economy is around £87bn.

The report by Goldman Sachs says Brexit has cost the UK economy 2.4% of its GDP,
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Is that symmetry I see? UKIP drop mirrors Brexit Party rise.

View attachment 389184
Farage is attacking UKIP. Just as he was once UKIP's star attraction, he's now the Brexit Party's star attraction. And moderate UKIP supporters are moving across.

UKIP have become less moderate since he handed over the reins. As UKIP becomes borderline racist, they'll turn off mainstream voters - which leaves the Brexit party as the logical alternative.

They're going to be the party of the protest vote in the European elections. But after that, they'll need to come up with a decent manifesto, credible spokespeople (other than Farage) and start showing they're an opposition in waiting. Or they'll be a one trick pony like UKIP.

Wordsmith
 
Wonder if he'll have to? The BBC charter requires it to be politically neutral. And in standing for Change UK Essler has unambiguously demonstrated he's no longer politically neutral.

Wordsmith
Apparently, he left the BBC in March 2017.
 

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