Brexit - The Final

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
The Tiggers are holding a Press Conference at the moment, primarily to introduce their candidates for the EU Elections, including Gavin Essler and Rachel Johnson.
Introduced by Heidi Allen (ex Tory), it’s hardly statesmanlike and to me, only demonstrates how out of touch our modern Political class really are with the grassroots in this country. A smug, know it all attitude is unlikely to convince significant numbers to join their cause. Up to now, Soubry has been mercifully quiet.
The Tiggers fate will be partially determined by the European elections - fail to make a decent showing there and they're toast. No-one willingly boards a sinking ship.

<Cynicism on>
I wonder how long it'll take the Tiggers to start shouting for PR: few of them will be elected on a FPTP system.
</Cynicism off>

Wordsmith
 

Joker62

ADC
Book Reviewer
The Tiggers fate will be partially determined by the European elections - fail to make a decent showing there and they're toast. No-one willingly boards a sinking ship.


I wonder how long it'll take the Tiggers to start shouting for PR: few of them will be elected on a FPTP system.


Wordsmith
Do they have candidates in the locals on May 2nd?
 
Wonder if he'll have to? The BBC charter requires it to be politically neutral. And in standing for Change UK Essler has unambiguously demonstrated he's no longer politically neutral.

Wordsmith
The groan quote him as

Gavin Esler, the former Newsnight presenter who is now a Change UK candidate for London, is speaking at the event now.
He sounds like a right tosser

They stole our patriotism. And I want it back.
Brexit: Change UK unveils European election candidates including Rachel Johnson and Gavin Esler - live news
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Do they have candidates in the locals on May 2nd?
From this link, the answer would seem to be no.

Chuka Umunna: This is why our new party will not be forming a ‘pro-Remain alliance’ for the European elections

The article also goes to great lengths to explain why they will not be campaigning on a 'remain in the EU ticket; the reason the party was launched in the first place.

Could it be because they regard that as being politically toxic? And hence are aping the political mould they've sworn to break by telling voters what they think they want to hear? Surely not...

Wordsmith
 
  1. If its not run at the behest of the members, why are said members making a rule change to eject May?
  2. If it's a clandestine remain party, how come 80 odd members of if belong to the ERG?
Wordsmith
Many of those members who hold positions of authority are remainers, the rank and file may be a majority brexit, but they aren't in those positions of power.. In any case, do you really believe they will eject May ?

80 MPs out of how many Constiuency party MPs ? I remain unconvinced their is even 51% of tory MPs in support of exiting europe under any terms but Mays.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Many of those members who hold positions of authority are remainers, the rank and file may be a majority brexit, but they aren't in those positions of power.. In any case, do you really believe they will eject May ?
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee is to tell May today to set a retirement date or face a further no-confidence vote in June.

Any last hopes May had of staying in power are likely to be extinguished by disastrous results on May 2nd.

So - yes.

Wordsmith
 

Auld-Yin

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From this link, the answer would seem to be no.

Chuka Umunna: This is why our new party will not be forming a ‘pro-Remain alliance’ for the European elections

The article also goes to great lengths to explain why they will not be campaigning on a 'remain in the EU ticket; the reason the party was launched in the first place.

Could it be because they regard that as being politically toxic? And hence are aping the political mould they've sworn to break by telling voters what they think they want to hear? Surely not...

Wordsmith
And yet the first thing Wendy said at the press cobf was that ChangeUK are the Remain Party, not 'a' but 'the'. Looks like the small group have communication problems.
 

Auld-Yin

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Many of those members who hold positions of authority are remainers, the rank and file may be a majority brexit, but they aren't in those positions of power.. In any case, do you really believe they will eject May ?

80 MPs out of how many Constiuency party MPs ? I remain unconvinced their is even 51% of tory MPs in support of exiting europe under any terms but Mays.
How many of these Tory MPs you feel want to sign up to May's surrender document cone from constituencies that voted to leave the EU?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
How many of these Tory MPs you feel want to sign up to May's surrender document cone from constituencies that voted to leave the EU?
I suspect many of those MPs will suddenly be converted to 'Leave' supporters after the expected massive fall in the Tory vote on May 2nd and in the European elections. Fear of being tossed off the gravy train is a power motivator.

In addition, if the Tory party has an ounce of sense (something I'm seriously beginning to doubt), they'll elect a Brexit supporting leader. (Electing a second Remain supporting one will guarantee political oblivion). Which means that the bulk of the top jobs will go to Brexiteers. So a significant number of 'Remain MP's will become 'Leave' ones if they have ambitions of ministerial office.

And as Groucho Mar said "Here are my principles. And if you don't like them, I have others".

Wordsmith
 
Yes, I did nine tours, starting in 1969 to end of 1983 it is vastly different there now, not a 'bullet strike' to be seen on any wall or building, and they were plentiful believe me, Not one derelict building, I saw a very different place completely, People coming and going with no 'checks or searches' Just ordinary well dressed folk of both sexes, One could sense and feel the 'money' not only from shops and cafe's but the houses were 'spruce' and well appointed, fresh decorated and gardens neat. A vast difference indeed.
I noticed one thing in particular, I was with a friend of mine, an ex Grenadier Guards, and though we were careful, people did sense that we were soldiers just 'back for a look' This quite intrigued them, and they wanted to hear more about the troubles, Some thought there was a certain romance about the Banner era, and in some cases the questions flowed. It is certainly a much different place now, the money that has been invested their since the 1990's should have been done during the 1960s, To created employment then would have cost a fraction of the cost of Operation Banner
Edited for Punctuation.
I too went regularly from 1974-1990. However if we had of spent the money as you suggest, on employment, sprucing up and so on back in the 1950’s, I don’t believe it would have made an iota of difference. The problem with the Provence was then and I believe still is, the religious divide, the Catholics dislike the Prods and the Prods hate everybody not wearing Orange .
I think that the Province would have had to have gone through the sort of clear out that occurred during the troubles and to a lesser extent is still ongoing. Take the £1bn money-tree that May promised the Government of NI? The reason why their is no Parliament in NI, is that the Prods won’t agree to the Irish language being given the same status as the Welsh Government has given Wales (even though it has proved to me a disaster for Wales, ever been slagged off in Welsh by a Welshman for being English?) a point of so much national interest that both sides walked out on each other rather than even talk about the situation. Catholic’s still don’t join the PSNI in any great numbers (nor are they made welcome), there are still peace walls (whatever the fook a peace walls is?) throughout Belfast, mixed communities are as rare as wooden rocking horse droppings, mixed schools even rarer.
Moreover, when I last visited friends in the province a few months ago, there is a feeling that should Jesser and his Marxist chums takeover they will simply hand the province to the Orish lock stock and barrel without so much as a by your leave let alone a vote. Although for most of them the backstop is a none issue as Eire will be responsible for building and manning the posts.
 

Auld-Yin

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I suspect many of those MPs will suddenly be converted to 'Leave' supporters after the expected massive fall in the Tory vote on May 2nd and in the European elections. Fear of being tossed off the gravy train is a power motivator.

In addition, if the Tory party has an ounce of sense (something I'm seriously beginning to doubt), they'll elect a Brexit supporting leader. (Electing a second Remain supporting one will guarantee political oblivion). Which means that the bulk of the top jobs will go to Brexiteers. So a significant number of 'Remain MP's will become 'Leave' ones if they have ambitions of ministerial office.

And as Groucho Mar said "Here are my principles. And if you don't like them, I have others".

Wordsmith
You are dismissing the one element that has been present throughout this sorry saga and that is the ego of MPs who "know" they know better than their cobstituents! Now there is a very thin line between ego and stupidity so your outcome is in no way certain.
 

Auld-Yin

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Joker62

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Wordsmith

LE
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Principles and MPs? :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
I think you'll find their principles are infinitely flexible. If the Tories poll at 20% in both the local and European elections, I think they'll have a Damascene conversion that they need to Brexit in order to prevent electoral oblivion in May 2022.

And given that they won't want to be conducting round 2 of the negotiations for a FTA in the run up to the 2022 GE (where the EU will be typically obstructive), they'd be best going for a no-deal Brexit so that they can start the negotiations in a few months' time.

Mind you, clarity of thinking doesn't seem to have been a Tory characteristic of late.

Wordsmith
 
BBC showing Heidi Allen from TIG or Change or whatever they are called harping on about how the Tory party has apparently moved to the right. Compared to what? The rapid movement of Labour to the far left?
Not much on BBC about The Brexit Party so had a look at Guido Fawkes site and found some news.

First there was mention of five new candidates
Then an additional post about one particular new candidate. Brexit Party Candidate Not Just ‘Royal Marine’, Was in Special Forces -
 
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Pob02

LE
Book Reviewer
Worked for Brother BL. Critical thinking doesn't appear to be his strong point.

More seriously, I suspect a flaw in the sampling methodology. If the polls re the EU were true, the Tory support would not have fallen off the edge of a cliff.

Wordsmith
So you don't think that, just possbly, the Tories could be losing support from:
a) Those who would previously have supported them, but are also in favour of Remaining in the EU
b) Those who have previously voted for them, as no "acceptable"alternative to the more right-wing side of things, who now see either UKIP (how is beyond me as they seem to have attracted a little of the lunatice fringe to them), or The Brexit "we have no policies advertised (less one, but even then we have not outlined any workable plan on how this shoudl work), but nevermind, we are a great bet, honest, as Our Nige is a bladdy 'ero I tell you" Party as viable alternatives.
c) Those who might have previously voted for them, but are so annoyed at the failure of May to deliver what her government has promised that they are willing to look elsewhere.
d) The usual protest votes loons
e) The usual (smaller) number of voters who swap about between parties anyway?

Now draw a venn diagram and starting fitting all this lot together with the number of people who now say they would vote remain.
 

Bagl0ck

On ROPS
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I think you'll find their principles are infinitely flexible. If the Tories poll at 20% in both the local and European elections, I think they'll have a Damascene conversion that they need to Brexit in order to prevent electoral oblivion in May 2022.

And given that they won't want to be conducting round 2 of the negotiations for a FTA in the run up to the 2022 GE (where the EU will be typically obstructive), they'd be best going for a no-deal Brexit so that they can start the negotiations in a few months' time.

Mind you, clarity of thinking doesn't seem to have been a Tory characteristic of late.

Wordsmith
The EU have repeatedly stated that in the event of a hard brexit that the 3 key issues will still need to be resolved before any FTA negotiations commence. Citizens rights, the Irish border and the divorce bill.

Hard brexit doesn't resolve anything. It simply weakens the UK further
 
How many of these Tory MPs you feel want to sign up to May's surrender document cone from constituencies that voted to leave the EU?
The trouble is, nobody is entirely sure, what exactly any MP really thinks. So many have learned to hide there opinions, to not upset us voters and have done it so long, they simply don't have the zip to change colours.

Farage, the greens, CuK and Corbyn all speak their minds and its hard not to respect them for it in this age where lies and truth are so blurred, that an honest voice whatever the message is a radical departure and set to be the future for politics for decades to come.
 

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