Brexit - The Final

The best bet for the Tories would now to make an attempt to put a 'no deal' Brexit through parliament. It'll be stopped by the opposition plus a few hard core remain Tories, but it would bring a lot of Brexit supporting Tories back on board, shore up their core support, put clear blue water between them and the other parties and possibly force a few concession out of Brussels in case a second attempt succeeded.

I doubt they've got the brains or the balls to do that.

Wordsmith
Its not about balls and brains, the tory party faces two ways: The parliamentary party and the establishment of the party, don't want to leave the EU. Its membership does....

My salient point is not, that I am secretly a russian bot (baglock view), but to change the country for the better we need to ditch the two mainstream parties as they don't represent the people.. Labour centrists should depart their party and leave a rump socialist grouping, with JRM and the tory libertarians departing and leaveing a european social democratic conservative party behind.
 
If you wanted to explore the core of this, we are talking about the first people to abandon hunter gatherer and switch to pastoral farming and lock in a piece of ground as mine..... History is replete with examples of settled communities coming under either armed assault from hunter gatherers OR peaceful coexistence on the principles of trust and building connections through marriage and such like.

Modern world where the wealthy are no longer dependent on earning their corn from the land. So they really don't care and immigration as a subject is not really an issue for anyone above a certain pay grade.
Not sure what your first language is.
The pastoral v Nomad life style competition will be with us in diminishing amounts until all the Nomads are dead. They cannot survive the competition. But that is not a racial but a cultural problem.
Once you are above a certain pay grade most problem which beset poorer people disappear unless you are a bigot.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
My salient point is not, that I am secretly a russian bot (baglock view), but to change the country for the better we need to ditch the two mainstream parties as they don't represent the people.. Labour centrists should depart their party and leave a rump socialist grouping, with JRM and the tory libertarians departing and leaveing a european social democratic conservative party behind.
I like it but will the electorate vote to overturn the status quo?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I think change will start long before that. If the Tory vote collapses in the local council elections (and in the European elections if held), May will at long last be toast. The new Tory leader will then decide that delivering Brexit is vital to the Tory party if they are not to be consigned to long-term electoral oblivion.

Nor than they deliver a modified version of May's WA (BRINO) because the need to negotiate a FTA with the EU will crop up in the run up to the 2022 GE - which will only serve to remind voters how much of a pig's ear May made of the Article 50 negotiations.

The only thing that can now save the Tory party from a long period in opposition (and possible replacement by the Brexit Party) is a no deal Brexit - and hopefully only limited economic turbulence as a result of it.

Wordsmith
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
NB worth publishing in its entirety

Letter to the Attorney General about the legal impact of signing the wrongly named Withdrawal Treaty
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: APRIL 15, 2019
Dear Geoffrey
Let me have another go at getting a reply from you concerning the way the Withdrawal Agreement stops us leaving the EU. Would you kindly confirm
1. If we sign this Treaty we will be locked into the EU and have to obey all its rules and pay all the bills it sends us for a period of at least 21 months, and probably for 45 months if we have not surrendered further to reach an exit agreement at the 21 month stage. This would mean remaining in the EU for at least 5 years from the decision to leave and probably for 7 years. The EU would be able to legislate and spend against UK interests during this period, whilst we would have no vote or voice in the matter.
2. In order to “leave” in your terms at the 5 to 7 year stage the UK will need to stay in the customs union and accept all single market rules and laws, unless the EU relented over the alleged Irish border issue. 3 years on and the EU has given no ground on the made up border issue, so why would they over the next two years? Isn’t the most likely outcome we would remain in the single market and customs union contrary to the government promise leaving meant leaving them in its referendum literature ?
3. After the 45 month period fully in the EU, the UK still would face financial obligations under the Withdrawal Treaty. The bills will be decided by the EU and we will have to pay them. Any attempt to query them would be adjudicated by the EU’s own court! The longer we stay in the more the future bills are likely to be. The £39 bn figure is likely to be a considerable underestimate.
4 The Treaty creates a category of super citizen in the UK. EU nationals living in the UK when we “leave” the EU will have their access to benefits guaranteed in a way the rest of us do not for their entire lifetimes. So we will not be taking back control of our benefit system.
I am also concerned about a number of Articles in the draft Treaty that expressly extend EU powers and jurisdiction for a further 4 to 8 years beyond our departure date after the 21 to 45 month delay.
Article 5 reintroduces the powers of the European Court and enforces “sincere co-operation ” on us as they do not want us impeding their plans for economic, monetary and political union.
Article 31 imposes social security co-ordination on us.
Article 39 gives special protection to EU citizens currently living in the UK from changes to social security for the whole of their lives, protection which the rest of us do not enjoy.
Article 51 applies parts of the VAT regime for an additional 5 years after the long transition envisaged in the Treaty
Articles 92-3 imposes the EU state aids regime on the UK for 4 years beyond transition
Article 95 imposes binding decisions by EU quangos and bodies for 4 years beyond transition
Article 99 requires us to pay for access to records to handle issues over indirect tax where the EU keeps powers for 4 years beyond transition
Article 127 applies the whole panoply of EU law throughout transition, including the right to legislate any way they wish against our interests and enforce it on us via the ECJ
Article 130 prevents us taking back control of our fish any time soon. Doubtless more of our fishing rights would be given away trying to get an exit deal.
Article 135 allows them to send extra bills up to the end of 2028
Article 140 imposes on us financial liabilities up to December 2020 and carry over into 2021
Articles 144 and 150 prevent us getting back accumulated reserves and profits from our European Investment Fund and EIB shareholdings
Article 143 imposes adverse conditions on us over pension and loan liabilities of the Union
Article 155 requires to make continuing payments to Turkey under an EU programme after we have left
Article 158 gives the European Court continuing power for 8 years after transition
Article 164 makes a Joint Committee an effective legislator and government over us
Article 174 requires any arbitration to be governed by ECJ judgements on the application of law in disputes
The Protocol on Northern Ireland will require us to stay in the Customs Union with regulatory and legal alignment with the single market, or split off a separate place called UK (NI) which will be governed differently to the rest of the UK on an island of Ireland basis.
There is much more I could object to. This is no Treaty to take back control, no Treaty for a newly independent nation. It does not quantify the financial liabilities, which are open ended and could be much larger than the low field £39bn Treasury estimate. We have little power to abate the bills and no power to abort the bills. It would probably result even in failure to take back control of our fishing grounds.
Mrs May needs to go back to the EU and explain why the UK people and Parliament have opposed this Treaty, and ask them to think again if they want an agreement before we leave. She needs to make it clear we now intend to leave without signing the Withdrawal Agreement prior to the European Parliamentary elections.
Yours
John Redwood
 
I think change will start long before that. If the Tory vote collapses in the local council elections (and in the European elections if held), May will at long last be toast. The new Tory leader will then decide that delivering Brexit is vital to the Tory party if they are not to be consigned to long-term electoral oblivion.

Nor than they deliver a modified version of May's WA (BRINO) because the need to negotiate a FTA with the EU will crop up in the run up to the 2022 GE - which will only serve to remind voters how much of a pig's ear May made of the Article 50 negotiations.

The only thing that can now save the Tory party from a long period in opposition (and possible replacement by the Brexit Party) is a no deal Brexit - and hopefully only limited economic turbulence as a result of it.

Wordsmith
I'd broadly agree, subject to the Tories a) suffering a wipeout, the b) Labour vote holding up significantly better across the board (and I think it probably will - since Labour has, just about, managed to stay all things to all men) and enough of the current crop of remain-fixated Tory MPs to be frightened enough by a) and b) above to change horses. The last is the most important one, in my view...

I'm yet to be convinced that the Farage party will make huge inroads; rather the protest votes will be spread across a range of parties, giving none a decisive breakthrough advantage.

Of course, one option open to the EU if it wishes to avoid a "bonfire of the Europhiles" is to withdraw the backstop, which they would most probably do after the local elections, but in time to avoid UK voting in the EU elections, all depending on the size and shape of the outcome in the former.
 
No I'm fine with this. So my point stands he wasn't one of us he was a damned foriegner, how could he have been so clever.
You were incorrect on a factual matter and somehow you've managed to segue racism into your response?

Unbelievable.

. . . oh, and it's 'foreigner', by the way.

Or are you yet another who is afflicted by Type 2 dyslexia?
 
NB worth publishing in its entirety

Letter to the Attorney General about the legal impact of signing the wrongly named Withdrawal Treaty
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: APRIL 15, 2019
Dear Geoffrey
Let me have another go at getting a reply from you concerning the way the Withdrawal Agreement stops us leaving the EU. Would you kindly confirm
1. If we sign this Treaty we will be locked into the EU and have to obey all its rules and pay all the bills it sends us for a period of at least 21 months, and probably for 45 months if we have not surrendered further to reach an exit agreement at the 21 month stage. This would mean remaining in the EU for at least 5 years from the decision to leave and probably for 7 years. The EU would be able to legislate and spend against UK interests during this period, whilst we would have no vote or voice in the matter.
2. In order to “leave” in your terms at the 5 to 7 year stage the UK will need to stay in the customs union and accept all single market rules and laws, unless the EU relented over the alleged Irish border issue. 3 years on and the EU has given no ground on the made up border issue, so why would they over the next two years? Isn’t the most likely outcome we would remain in the single market and customs union contrary to the government promise leaving meant leaving them in its referendum literature ?
3. After the 45 month period fully in the EU, the UK still would face financial obligations under the Withdrawal Treaty. The bills will be decided by the EU and we will have to pay them. Any attempt to query them would be adjudicated by the EU’s own court! The longer we stay in the more the future bills are likely to be. The £39 bn figure is likely to be a considerable underestimate.
4 The Treaty creates a category of super citizen in the UK. EU nationals living in the UK when we “leave” the EU will have their access to benefits guaranteed in a way the rest of us do not for their entire lifetimes. So we will not be taking back control of our benefit system.
I am also concerned about a number of Articles in the draft Treaty that expressly extend EU powers and jurisdiction for a further 4 to 8 years beyond our departure date after the 21 to 45 month delay.
Article 5 reintroduces the powers of the European Court and enforces “sincere co-operation ” on us as they do not want us impeding their plans for economic, monetary and political union.
Article 31 imposes social security co-ordination on us.
Article 39 gives special protection to EU citizens currently living in the UK from changes to social security for the whole of their lives, protection which the rest of us do not enjoy.
Article 51 applies parts of the VAT regime for an additional 5 years after the long transition envisaged in the Treaty
Articles 92-3 imposes the EU state aids regime on the UK for 4 years beyond transition
Article 95 imposes binding decisions by EU quangos and bodies for 4 years beyond transition
Article 99 requires us to pay for access to records to handle issues over indirect tax where the EU keeps powers for 4 years beyond transition
Article 127 applies the whole panoply of EU law throughout transition, including the right to legislate any way they wish against our interests and enforce it on us via the ECJ
Article 130 prevents us taking back control of our fish any time soon. Doubtless more of our fishing rights would be given away trying to get an exit deal.
Article 135 allows them to send extra bills up to the end of 2028
Article 140 imposes on us financial liabilities up to December 2020 and carry over into 2021
Articles 144 and 150 prevent us getting back accumulated reserves and profits from our European Investment Fund and EIB shareholdings
Article 143 imposes adverse conditions on us over pension and loan liabilities of the Union
Article 155 requires to make continuing payments to Turkey under an EU programme after we have left
Article 158 gives the European Court continuing power for 8 years after transition
Article 164 makes a Joint Committee an effective legislator and government over us
Article 174 requires any arbitration to be governed by ECJ judgements on the application of law in disputes
The Protocol on Northern Ireland will require us to stay in the Customs Union with regulatory and legal alignment with the single market, or split off a separate place called UK (NI) which will be governed differently to the rest of the UK on an island of Ireland basis.
There is much more I could object to. This is no Treaty to take back control, no Treaty for a newly independent nation. It does not quantify the financial liabilities, which are open ended and could be much larger than the low field £39bn Treasury estimate. We have little power to abate the bills and no power to abort the bills. It would probably result even in failure to take back control of our fishing grounds.
Mrs May needs to go back to the EU and explain why the UK people and Parliament have opposed this Treaty, and ask them to think again if they want an agreement before we leave. She needs to make it clear we now intend to leave without signing the Withdrawal Agreement prior to the European Parliamentary elections.
Yours
John Redwood
Ouch! If what he writes is true, we had best ring Paris and see if we can sign out the replica railway carriage they keep handy for such momentous signings....
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Ouch! If what he writes is true, we had best ring Paris and see if we can sign out the replica railway carriage they keep handy for such momentous signings....
This has been mentioned many times although is played down by the Remain media. The Withdrawal Agreement is not a document to take us out of the EU it is a document designed to keep us in! NI border is a red herring!
 
I think change will start long before that. If the Tory vote collapses in the local council elections (and in the European elections if held), May will at long last be toast. The new Tory leader will then decide that delivering Brexit is vital to the Tory party if they are not to be consigned to long-term electoral oblivion.

Nor than they deliver a modified version of May's WA (BRINO) because the need to negotiate a FTA with the EU will crop up in the run up to the 2022 GE - which will only serve to remind voters how much of a pig's ear May made of the Article 50 negotiations.

The only thing that can now save the Tory party from a long period in opposition (and possible replacement by the Brexit Party) is a no deal Brexit - and hopefully only limited economic turbulence as a result of it.

Wordsmith
Mentalism.

Economic suicide will win an election?

It's all about holding the centre.

If the Tories were smart, they'd cut loose the kipper wing and try to hoover up some centrist votes with some public service spending pledges.
 

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