Brexit - The Final

Rod924

LE
Kit Reviewer
Working in Switzerland and living in France is complicated for non-EU nationals


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I take it you are not registered in Switzerland/France nor pay tax & insurances ?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
We'll soon see if we leave the EU by the 31st but if we dont I want BoJo to imediately raise a VoNC in his own government - if the Remainers can act childishly then so should the other side. If Corbyn wont call one then the Tories should as they will have absolutely nothing to lose because as a government they cannot get a single thing through and the remainiacs are just getting ever more emboldened to put in more and more stupid amdts. The only possible bright spot in all of this is that Bercow is supposed to leave on the 31st - mind you we have to take that with a pinch of salt because he thinks he is the remain messiah on a 'mission from god'
BoJo can't call for a V of NC - only the leader of the opposition (Magic Grandpa) can do that. And with Labour polling at 22% - 23%, there is no way he is doing that. The only other way BoJo can get a GE is by a 2/3 vote of MP's and the opposition parties are also denying him that.

But BoJo will call for a GE again shortly - if only to flag up that the opposition parties are scared of one.

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a badly drafted piece of sh!te.

Wordsmith
 
Except the Remain camp don't want a GE, because Boris is ahead in the polls. And in trying to avoid a GE, they are ever more blatantly trying to obstruct Brexit, which makes it even more likely that BoJo can win a GE.

Motivation is also a strong factor in GE's - I suspect Leave voters will be strongly motivated to put an 'X' in the Tory box, while Labour Brexit supporters may well opt to stay at home in silent protest at the way Labour has obstructed Brexit.

I suspect BoJo is happy running the clock down and letting Remain p!ss of ever larger swathes of voters.

Wordsmith
he needs to get his finger out. The City of London is grinding to a halt. It’s not being helped by the US/China trade war, but things are slowing down which is not good. IPOs on the AIM market down 87% on the same period for last year. The indecision is going to have an impact. Remains will blame brexit, whereas it’s entirely the fault of the delay tactics they have employed.
 
By definition that wasn’t possible since trade was suspended.
Ah, you neglected to read the fine print.

Such trade was only suspended until the bomb-bay doors opened and the bombardier pressed the release button. At which point the clamps opened, or the bungee was loosed, and trade was free to resume.

Despite Peenemünde's stalwart attempt to boost Germany's exports, the UK, along with its US trading partner, had somewhat of a monopoly on the market by late 1944. German border control was quite strict, though, and import duties were quite harsh for some aircrew.
 
Of course they don't. They're above all of us, are secretly, well aware of how the silent majority thinks.... Anyone who has ever done canvassing for a political party, has talked to that majority and found surprising unanimity on a raft of issues. We are far more united than people credit, but political parties can't afford, or don't want policies which align with the public will as that is dangerous for any consensus.

I would bet my house that of the remain half of the country, at least a third or more of those voters want Brexit, but either out of fear or a desire to make what is deemed the right choice, were driven into voting remain.
Not that it's a broad survey group but Plantymajor just started at a College infamous for left wing lunacy.
A friend trolled a group chat as 'Tarquin the Tory' and was generally told 'we don't tolerate them here'.
However... of the Brits within the new cohort of friends. None sing Corbyn, or the lefts praises. One has two family members standing for TBP. Amongst the wider group of 6th form College mates, a noticeable amount are pro Brexit - also noticeably, they include many BAME.

I've noticed similar within Turning Point UK.
An interesting turn for identity politics with youth and BAME.
 
The only thing that is interesting about all these amendments, is that they are very likely to p!ss of the EU and say ram your extension request up your jacksie.

Yer oot in 9 days.
Or cause the government to pull the bill.
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
OK. Could you please clarify a couple of points for me?
  • Where is the list of trade deals, and their prospective values, that are intended to replace our current EU trading relationships?
  • How much better off will we be in nett terms as a result of Brexit?
  • What timescales are such gains projected to occur over?
  • Where are the figures that support theses estimates of our post-Brexit trade flow?
  • What assumptions were made in their development?
  • Are these plans supported by independent peer review?
I know you believe you're being reasonable but your questions don't reflect political realities and how things get done. You seem to be working on the assumption that there is an unquestionable absolute somewhere if we only torture the data sufficiently when, in reality, the best you can hope for is a very wide range which will vary hugely based on which assumptions, values and prejudices you accept and plug into your model.

If we deal with your questions in order.

Where is the list of trade deals, and their prospective values, that are intended to replace our current EU trading relationships?
Do they replace or do they augment? We have no idea until we have established the basis of leaving and started to develop these deals. Trade is a dynamic process, what would the authority of such a list be based on and why would it be definitive?

How much better off will we be in nett terms as a result of Brexit?
Define 'better off' and for whom. There will be winners and losers as there are now. Do you define 'better off' in purely financial terms or is there a regional, political and constitutional aspect too? What are you predicting for the Eurozone performance-wise and on what basis?

What timescales are such gains projected to occur over?
Who cares, they're only projections. What happens if we have to eat rock soup for five years followed by a period where we're all farting through silk? How could we trust such a prediction anyway? What was the last projection you believed from either side since the referendum was announced?

Where are the figures that support theses estimates of our post-Brexit trade flow?
Wherever you want them to be, the process is too dynamic, chaotic and extensive to be predicted with the level of certainty you're looking for. Civil servants will be at one end of the predictive scale, together with the likes of the CBI where power resides with established companies who favour the status quo, whilst entrepreneurial organisations who are comfortable with disruptive market dynamics and technologies will tend towards the other direction. Who's right? Only time will tell.

What assumptions were made in their development?
Based on the empirical evidence to date, that depends entirely on the prejudices and higher direction of those assembling them at the time. What would you recommend as the basis for any assumptions and why would those recommendations work and be valid?

Are these plans supported by independent peer review?
Where is this independent peer review to be found? Do you want the IEA (yes if you want to leave) or the IFS (the sensible choice for those who wish to remain).

If you could answer all these questions (and some of them don't have an answer, simply a preference) with the degree of certainty you're looking for, you'd be retired and obscenely wealthy. The fact is that these questions are not susceptible to clear and definitive answers. It's a bit like getting married - that's why it's a political question.
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
BoJo can't call for a V of NC - only the leader of the opposition (Magic Grandpa) can do that. And with Labour polling at 22% - 23%, there is no way he is doing that. The only other way BoJo can get a GE is by a 2/3 vote of MP's and the opposition parties are also denying him that.

But BoJo will call for a GE again shortly - if only to flag up that the opposition parties are scared of one.

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a badly drafted piece of sh!te.

Wordsmith
That does make me wonder why they don't try to repeal the FTPA - easier than getting 2/3rds of the vote.
 

moderator

War Hero
There is a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth from some of the brexiteers on here though.
From both Brexiteers and from Remaineers I'd venture. Probably fair to say that the small handful of trolls and rabids (not mutually exclusive) have made the thread utterly meaningless and thus, pointless beyond mild amusement.
 
Submit an FOI request.

All will be revealed.
Why should I do that when I have a veritable plethora of Brexperts at hand here on ARRSE?

Can you not just give me a link or two, or scan of the summary of the information you got from your FOI request (given that you seem to be inferring that's how most Brexiteers must have got it)?

When I've made arguments on this thread, for or against a point, I am generally courteous enough to provide data that supports my position, either directly or by linking. Is it really too much to ask for a similar consideration to be granted to my requests?
 
A deal is an absolutely necessity, but we still have to work within the system whilst we still belong to it. This deal is the best the EU is going to give us, now.... Future relationships is where we could squeeze some additional concessions, but we can't do that, when were out of leverage.
Ironically, our best chance of future accommodation is, I believe, out with a Deal. Having spared the EU the massive problem of a sudden, catastrophic drop in funds, they should be more amenable to working on a realistic FTA. But, it could enable (as LJ noted in one of his posts last night) Germany and France to continue for a few more years with their Federalist plans.

Arguably, in or out, with or without a deal, we won't regain any real leverage in the EU until either a) Germany and France split and/or b) they need our help to fend off Trump...
 
Why should I do that when I have a veritable plethora of Brexperts at hand here on ARRSE?
Care to point them out ? The only ( so called ) expert I have experienced on the thread is the Dr, Doctor, Dr, MMA & Bar.

Can you not just give me a link or two, or scan of the summary of the information you got from your FOI request (given that you seem to be inferring that's how most Brexiteers must have got it)?
Do I really ? That issue is yours, not mine.

When I've made arguments on this thread, for or against a point, I am generally courteous enough to provide data that supports my position, either directly or by linking. Is it really too much to ask for a similar consideration to be granted to my requests?
An FOI request will provide you with all the info that you require. You are unlikely to find what you are looking for on ARRSE.
 
Not that it's a broad survey group but Plantymajor just started at a College infamous for left wing lunacy.
A friend trolled a group chat as 'Tarquin the Tory' and was generally told 'we don't tolerate them here'.
However... of the Brits within the new cohort of friends. None sing Corbyn, or the lefts praises. One has two family members standing for TBP. Amongst the wider group of 6th form College mates, a noticeable amount are pro Brexit - also noticeably, they include many BAME.

I've noticed similar within Turning Point UK.
An interesting turn for identity politics with youth and BAME.
The political consensus intentionally divides people, via faux political parties and arguments. They all agree with each other on pretty much everything and the lack of diversity in the body politic, makes it easier to run things, but also deeply damaging to democracy and has the effect of hollowing it out.

The rise of identity politics was the final push and the trigger for corbyn, populism, Brexit, Trump. Its all the same reactions, when people start to feel pushed around. Eventually people react and push back.... Neither Boris or Trump are rational choices, but when presented with irrational choices you make a tribal choice.

Brexit removes a pillar of control from our lives and I for one think its liberating to democracy.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
That does make me wonder why they don't try to repeal the FTPA - easier than getting 2/3rds of the vote.
The opposition would vote it down. If the FTPA is repealed, BoJo can call a GE. Good odds he'd win it, with Labour losing large swathes of seats in the process. Then BoJo could Brexit on his chosen terms.

It'll be possible to repeal the FTPA after Brexit. Everyone will see the chance to take seats off of Labour. But that requires Brexit - which Labour is going to block for as long as possible.

Wordsmith
 
I take it you are not registered in Switzerland/France nor pay tax & insurances ?
Currently live in singapore, won’t be covered by any agreements covering current residents if / when I come back


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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