Brexit - The Final

moderator

Old-Salt
He’s certainly earning his salary. Just a shame he’s leaving soon.

Except of course, he isn't and it isn't.

Nobody with a shred of impartiality could ever accuse Bercow, somebody who should be the very definition of impartiality of being impartial.

This is the same impartial Speaker who proudly displayed "Bollocks To Brexit - It's not a done deal" on his car windscreen and (allegedly) a blue EU roundel bearing the words, "Don't blame me, I voted Remain" on his rear bumper. The very same impartial Speaker that told a group of students that "he voted to Remain in the EU Referendum".

Mr Impartiality himself" said:
On the accusations made against him by those claiming he favours the opinions of Remainers, Mr Bercow said: ‘If you are losing the match, it’s quite bad form to blame the referee.’
Well, he would say that wouldn't he.
 

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
I disagree ( about the catastrophe) but you see my point about the two of them getting their heads together?

On reflection, probably not.
I see it as a perfectly understandable conversation in the circumstances.
 
If the Scottish court thus rules, BoJo will immediately appeal it to the Supreme Court, buying him a day or two.

He'll resign as soon as he's legally obliged to send the letter - and not nominate a successor. If BoJo isn't PM, he can't be in breach of the Benn act.

That gives the opposition a real political headache. The other opposition parties won't want Corbyn as PM - he'll do populist things to boost Labour popularity at their expense. So the best that can be achieved is a fudge where the opposition parties nominate someone like Ken Clarke as temporary PM to delay Brexit till Jan 2020.

There's no excuse not to have a GE straight after the Brexit delay - and BoJo has his people v parliament election; with the added bonus he didn't ask for the delay.

The entire opposition strategy is about getting BoJo to ask for a delay - and screwing the Tory's electoral prospects in the process. That's a game BoJo won't play. He'll hand the poisoned chalice to the opposition. And with only days to go to October 31st.

I expect moves of utter desperation from the opposition when parliament resumes. They must realise BoJo has run the clock down, and is now lovingly spreading the butter on the sh!t sandwich he is going to hand them in a week or two.

Wordsmith
BoJo, will be a good boy, and submit the Letter.

Stand bye for a long extension.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Except of course, he isn't and it isn't.

Nobody with a shred of impartiality could ever accuse Bercow, somebody who should be the very definition of impartiality of being impartial.

This is the same impartial Speaker who proudly displayed "Bollocks To Brexit - It's not a done deal" on his car windscreen and (allegedly) a blue EU roundel bearing the words, "Don't blame me, I voted Remain" on his rear bumper. The very same impartial Speaker that told a group of students that "he voted to Remain in the EU Referendum".



Well, he would say that wouldn't he.
Hardly impartial to claim one side, the one he does not support, is losing. Just as well he is wrong.
 

moderator

Old-Salt
BoJo, will be a good boy, and submit the Letter.

Stand bye for a long extension.
The letter, as set out in the EU Withdrawal (No.2) Act - the so called Benn Act - calls for an extension until 31st of January 2020. A three month extension in fact. Is that a long extension in your world?

I'd say it is a rather short extension in the greater scheme of things. Brexit has now been dragging on since June 2016 - forty months or thereabouts so three months really isn't a long time in Brexit terms.
 
The letter, as set out in the EU Withdrawal (No.2) Act - the so called Benn Act - calls for an extension until 31st of January 2020. A three month extension in fact. Is that a long extension in your world?

I'd say it is a rather short extension in the greater scheme of things. Brexit has now been dragging on since June 2016 - forty months or thereabouts so three months really isn't a long time in Brexit terms.
I expect the extension to be a lot longer than 3 months.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
EU game plan.

Britain will only be granted a Brexit extension by the EU if it agrees to hold a general election or a second referendum, it emerged on Wednesday night. David Sassoli, the president of the European Parliament, set out the condition during a debate in Brussels. Mr Sassoli revealed he discussed the plans directly with John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, in London on Tuesday.
The flaw in that little plan is BoJo has created the situation where:
  • He campaigns on a no deal Brexit, causing TBP supporters to back the Tories. His vote will be in the high thirties - enough for a working majority.
  • Labour and the Limp Dems will split the remain vote.
Parliament legislating for a 2nd referendum without a GE first is about as politically toxic as could be and the parties that do that will pay heavily in a GE.

As long as BoJo keeps pressing for Brexit, he'll come out on top - recent opinion polls show far more people blame parliament/the opposition for a lack of Brexit than they do the Tories. The EU is used to bullying states into line - its not working with BoJo. He and the Tories know what happened to their vote in the European elections when they didn't Brexit - 9%.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I expect the extension to be a lot longer than 3 months.
Dream on. The Tories got 9% of the vote in the European elections after May called off Brexit. They know not Brexiting would be fatal to the party.

There may be a Brexit extension, but it won't be the Tories applying for it. BoJo will resign instead, refuse to nominate a successor and let the opposition parties request the delay.

Much of the Labour industrial heartlands was Brexit supporting. Guess what'll happen to the Labour vote if its instrumental in delaying Brexit.

Wordsmith
 
EU game plan.



The flaw in that little plan is BoJo has created the situation where:
  • He campaigns on a no deal Brexit, causing TBP supporters to back the Tories. His vote will be in the high thirties - enough for a working majority.
  • Labour and the Limp Dems will split the remain vote.
Parliament legislating for a 2nd referendum without a GE first is about as politically toxic as could be and the parties that do that will pay heavily in a GE.

As long as BoJo keeps pressing for Brexit, he'll come out on top - recent opinion polls show far more people blame parliament/the opposition for a lack of Brexit than they do the Tories. The EU is used to bullying states into line - its not working with BoJo. He and the Tories know what happened to their vote in the European elections when they didn't Brexit - 9%.

Wordsmith
BoJo will not fight a GE on No Deal. He will continue with his current waffle, that he can secure a Deal, but needs a majority to do so.
 
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