Brexit - The Final

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
I’d argue that at this stage it has to be a convincing pantomime (to quote BL) to prevent the opposition having a single option to block.

Also, the greater the Remain noise about not leaving without a deal, the more they will have to swallow if he actually gets one.

In truth, I know no more than the next man, but studying the run of play so far leads me to this conclusion.
The problem on the leave side is that no WA will ever satisfy the No Deal fundamentalists simply because it can never be Brexitty enough. Johnson may well want one (I think he does because it's a rational position) but I don't see how he can get there without provoking a vote which will split the leave caucus and introduce a different Parliament to the drama.
 
Hence why boris doesn't want an election and can chin off TBP

Cummings takes a long view here: UKIP – Dominic Cummings's Blog
Whether Brexit is a success will not be determined by the ‘deal’. The deal is now sure to be much worse than it could have been. This means we will start off outside the EU in a state worse than we might have done. But whether we make the most of things over a 10/20/30 year timescale is a completely different question and unknowable to anybody. Ignore the fanatics on both sides who are ‘sure’, from Chris Giles to Bill Cash
Why did Boris propose an election twice in the last week then, if he doesn't want one.

Confused of Sevenoaks.
 

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
Why did Boris propose an election twice in the last week then, if he doesn't want one.

Confused of Sevenoaks.
It allows him to pursue the People v Parliament knock-about narrative.
 
EU officials regret getting into bed with Remainers
Bruno Waterfield
September 12 2019, 12:01am, The Times
One Brussels source said the EU had “made mistakes” with Labour and was now horrified at Jeremy Corbyn’s position

One Brussels source said the EU had “made mistakes” with Labour and was now horrified at Jeremy Corbyn’s positionDARIO PIGNATELLI/BLOOMBERG /GETTY IMAGES
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European Union officials and diplomats are “tearing their hair out” at the twists and turns of Labour’s “mad” Brexit policy and regret past tactical alliances with Remain campaigners.
One Brussels source close to negotiations said the EU had “made mistakes” with Labour and was now horrified at the party’s convoluted position as political chaos in Westminster raises the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking the keys to Downing Street.
“They want us to negotiate a ‘credible’ deal and then they will campaign against it in a referendum? That is mad. How can we negotiate with people like that?” an EU source said. “Their divisions and magical thinking are as bad as anything the Conservatives produced — perhaps worse.”
The source expressed regrets that links with Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, had helped shape Labour tactics that backfired by contributing to three defeats for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.
There is growing belief among officials that hardline Remain supporters, such as Sir Keir, have helped create a political crisis that has rebounded on the EU by unravelling the deal.

Officials regret not cultivating other Labour MPs who support a withdrawal agreement to avoid alienating their party’s voters who backed Leave in northern and Welsh constituencies by campaigning to reverse Brexit.
“It would have been better to talk to sensible MPs like Stephen Kinnock or Lisa Nandy who want an agreement,” said the source.

More widely, European governments now believe that it has been a mistake to back Remainers such as Tony Blair and Lord Mandelson, who have links in Brussels and Paris, in their efforts to use delays to the Brexit deadline to keep Britain inside the EU.
Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, has been active in encouraging Remain campaigners to press for extensions to the Article 50 process culminating in the recent House of Commons legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit this week.
President Macron held private meetings with Mr Blair this year to offer a two-year delay to Brexit, in order to give Remainers the chance to reverse the 2016 referendum.
“Remainers in the EU once saw merit in extension because it kept Britain in the EU. That is changing and it is changing fast in the capitals,” a senior EU diplomat said.
“It has not been helpful and has been a get out jail free card allowing the Westminster parliament to think they do not have to take responsibility for the withdrawal agreement.”
This fits with a few bits that have been n Twitter this week.

If the EU fcuk PMBK over they are in danger of a. Having a Tory party govt held hostage (in their eyes) by the TBP or worse a govt of Steptoe & his militant protest party. Either will wreak havoc with the EU in very different ways. TBP/Tory will stymie everything. Steptoe will trash our economy which will have a huge impact on the EU.

Better to deal with PMBJ who if he gets a deal through the HoC that both sides are satisfied with he will have every reason to deal sensibly with the EU post Brexit.

Prefer no deal personally, but this needs to be put to bed for both sides, us & the EU.
 

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
And


Pity the oppo didn't "dis-allow" him and call his bluff.
It's likely but they appear to want him to twist in the wind for 7 weeks. You can imagine the consequences for his political future of some waking up on 1 Nov and finding the UK is still a member of the EU.
 

Helm

MIA
Moderator
Book Reviewer
I was listening to Amber Rudd on the Today program this morning. Her perspective (as a friend of Boris, and as someone attending the no-deal planning meetings) was that all the focus was on no-deal, and insufficient effort put towards getting a deal.

When pushed, she said that she believed that Boris wanted a deal, she just didn't believe he was really doing much about actually getting one.
That would be the Amber Rudd that didn't actually sit on a single Brexit committee?
 
This fits with a few bits that have been n Twitter this week.

If the EU fcuk PMBK over they are in danger of a. Having a Tory party govt held hostage (in their eyes) by the TBP or worse a govt of Steptoe & his militant protest party. Either will wreak havoc with the EU in very different ways. TBP/Tory will stymie everything. Steptoe will trash our economy which will have a huge impact on the EU.

Better to deal with PMBJ who if he gets a deal through the HoC that both sides are satisfied with he will have every reason to deal sensibly with the EU post Brexit.

Prefer no deal personally, but this needs to be put to bed for both sides, us & the EU.
Any deal that satisfies the remainers can be guaranteed to keep us tied to the failing EU organisation.
There is no compromise with the binary referendum I voted on; Leave the EU or Remain in the EU.
 
The problem on the leave side is that no WA will ever satisfy the No Deal fundamentalists simply because it can never be Brexitty enough. Johnson may well want one (I think he does because it's a rational position) but I don't see how he can get there without provoking a vote which will split the leave caucus and introduce a different Parliament to the drama.
I think your political assessments have been roundly punted into the manure pile, given your flimsy and proven inherently wrong predictions.
Has anything you stated actually panned out?
 
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Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
I think your political assessments have been roundly punted into the manure pile, given your flimsy and proven inherently wrong, predictions.
Has anything you stated actually panned out?
Yes. There was an early election (ask @dogmeat), May became PM, the wheels fell off the Brexit bus and we didn't leave the EU in March (or April). I also still predict you will wake up one day and wonder what happened to your fantasy.

I'm also making a healthy profit on it.

Thanks for all the fish.
 
It's likely but they appear to want him to twist in the wind for 7 weeks. You can imagine the consequences for his political future of some waking up on 1 Nov and finding the UK is still a member of the EU.
And can you imagine the feelings of the British electorate towards the EU if that does happen?

It won't be BoJo that carries the can. The EU's consistent line has been, take it or leave it. It won't take much to spin that into rather more negativity than the EU will enjoy.
 
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