Brexit - The Final

Joker62

ADC
Book Reviewer
"Do or die"...he is ready to sacrifice you all. A spoiled public schoolboy mentality that sent thousands over the top into a hail of bullets with only their own ego to offer as a reason.
Blair?
 

Pob02

LE
Book Reviewer
And to further state the obvious, the EU is trying to prevent us leaving by saying no changes will be made to May's deeply flawed WA - rejected three times by parliament.

Feel free to explain how - if the EU won't change the WA - we can leave the EU except by a no deal Brexit.

Wordsmith
Not sure exactly how your question addresses the specific topic of my post (which is that Gatt 24 cannot be called upon if Uk leaves with No Deal).

At no time did I in the above post ( as in take is inferred in your above) suggest that a "No Deal Brexit" was impossible. Rather, I opine that the argument that Gatt 24 could be used to circumvent rules set out in Gatt 1 (which are commonly known as Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rules) is just a theoritical, which wopuld not survive first contact with reality, as the "plan and schedule" of any final deal with the EU are unlikely to be in place before the Uk leaves the EU .. . in particular as you point out that the EU has stated it will not renegotiate the WA.

This is simply me, amongst others, pointing out that Gatt 24 is not some miracle cure for this mess.
 
Not sure exactly how your question addresses the specific topic of my post (which is that Gatt 24 cannot be called upon if Uk leaves with No Deal).

At no time did I in the above post ( as in take is inferred in your above) suggest that a "No Deal Brexit" was impossible. Rather, I opine that the argument that Gatt 24 could be used to circumvent rules set out in Gatt 1 (which are commonly known as Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rules) is just a theoritical, which wopuld not survive first contact with reality, as the "plan and schedule" of any final deal with the EU are unlikely to be in place before the Uk leaves the EU .. . in particular as you point out that the EU has stated it will not renegotiate the WA.

This is simply me, amongst others, pointing out that Gatt 24 is not some miracle cure for this mess.

This is what MPs are reading on the matter:

No-deal Brexit and WTO: Article 24 explained

Obviously, this will not fit in with Wordsmith's fantasies, but there you go.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Not sure exactly how your question addresses the specific topic of my post (which is that Gatt 24 cannot be called upon if Uk leaves with No Deal).
My point was that we are probably going to have to leave the EU without a deal. The question is what happens after that. As you say, it would need EU agreement to subsequently sign up to a GATT 24 arrangement. However,
  1. There is a distinct difference between what's said for public consumption by the EU before Brexit and what will happen afterwards.
  2. Trump has made it clear a FTA with the US is on the cards post Brexit.
  3. The EU has a substantial trade surplus with the UK.
  4. If the EU doesn't sign a GATT 24 deal with the UK, it could see EU goods being replaced by US ones in the UK market - which will cause substantial job losses in the EU.
Thus, if the EU wants to play hardball post-Brexit, it could end up cutting off its nose to spite its face.

Wordsmith
 
"Through unilateral measures...?"

I thought the Herr Gautleirters Barnier and Junckers spoke for the whole of the EU when they said it was the EU's way or no way: that separate agreements/treaties between the UK and individual member states was impossible.

Ooooooh the dirty foreign fibbers. That not another reason to leave? That the EU's whole negotiating positions have been based on lies?

These people are supposed to be our friends, partners and allies, hey?

Fcek me, they make the Septics seem reliable.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
This is what MPs are reading on the matter:

No-deal Brexit and WTO: Article 24 explained

Obviously, this will not fit in with Wordsmith's fantasies, but there you go.
It does say that temp agreements can be done but only with agreement from both parties and a plan in place. As The EU have no intention of coming to any agreement like that then the planning should be towards bugging out and starting from scratch. It is time that the EU learned that they cannot keep their one-sided agreement and that either some movement is put in place or we leave on No-Deal.

Now before you start going on about aeroplanes dropping out of the skies and ships sinking in the Straits of Dover, just look at the arrangements the EU very quickly put in place when it looked like we were bugging out in March - before May crumpled again.

A determined and clear message to the EU will either see them becoming more entrenched, and their exporters suffering accordingly, or they come to a temporary agreement to keep trade trading.

It will be interesting to see how they get on with Switzerland when their agreement
 
ships sinking in the Straits of Dover,
News just in...

A Seaborne Ferries spokesperson earlier today (may have) stated categorically that none of their ships will sink in the event of a no deal Brexit.​

So not all bad news then.
 
Yeah what do they know :
FT article- Attorney-General saying Boris is wrong

Here is Article 24 in all it's glory: Article (Gatt 24)

Where does Article 24 comes in.

It allows countries or trade blocs to agree lower (or zero) tariff rates with other countries or blocs, if they set up a customs union or a free trade area, or if they have an interim agreement - which acts as a stepping stone to a permanent agreement in the future.

That is how international trade works, and the WTO's own database shows that 311 free trade agreements have been notified under Article 24.

This is outlined in an explainer from the pro-Brexit group Lawyers for Britain. But they are clear that there does need to be an agreement - it is not automatic.
LINK

The UK leaving the EU with no deal suggests there would be… well, no deal.

Or to put it in the words of Peter Ungphakorn, a former WTO secretariat official: "No deal means there is no agreement with the EU and therefore Gatt Article 24 doesn't apply."

And, to state the obvious, to have a deal, you need both sides to agree (shocking isn't it?) - the UK cannot invoke Article 24 on its own.

One set of experts arguing with another. You have teh theory, and the likelihood of taht becoming a reality.

To put it another way ( bold and italics on important part)

Claim
If we leave the EU on WTO terms, Article 24 of the World Trade Organisation would allow the UK and EU to maintain zero tariffs for up to 10 years while negotiating a new deal with the EU.

Conclusion
This is very unlikely in practice. This refers to Article 24 of the WTO’s General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. It allows countries who are negotiating a free-trade area or customs union to have an interim agreement on trade tariffs for a period of (in most cases) up to ten years provided they have a “plan and schedule” agreed for concluding a final deal. It’s unlikely we could have such a “plan and schedule” in place with the EU before we leave.


It is a bit like me claiming that if I leave my wife I will end up banging the backdoors of Kylie and Danni Minouge. In theory it is a possibility, howoever the likelihood of me getting them to agree to this ... . . .
As you say there must be an agreement, however that agreement doesn't have to be over 500 pages, it could just be "we agree between us to article 24 and we will plan to have it sorted within 10 years. Starting 1st November 2019. Thank you very much"
It could be perfectly reasonable if both parties act fairly with each other, but we already know that the eu won't.

Your own theory is flawed and not possible because according to art 24 you only need your wife's agreement to bang anyone you like, you would have to make separate agreements with said ladies!
 

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