Brexit - The Final

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Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Populism is really, the federalists dream.... Its the leverage needed to encourages people to vote a certain way, in opposition to those bad people. If/when a new treaty turns up, you can bet its presented as a reaction to populism and surely more democracy in the EU is a good thing.
The 'more democracy in the EU' mantra is working really well with Brexit, an anti-EU government in Italy and significant gains by the populist parties in the European elections.

And that is when the EU is still trying to expand its powers by stealth. Wait until the EU puts forward a new treaty with new powers for the EU. Then the fur will fly.

Remember standing still is not an option for the EU. They have to make changes to deal with the structural flaws in the euro. And they need to get that process well underway before the next recession hits - or the euro is toast.

Brexit has chewed up three years the EU could have more profitably have put to use in sorting out the euros problems. As well as fornicating the Tory party, May may well have fornicated the euro - and by extension the EU.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Again, unemployable party twonks who wont respect the electorate or even represent them. Time to clean out the stables. Roll on the next GE!
Don't bank on that happening anytime soon. Both Labour and the Tories want to avid one like the plague. They'll both lose large amounts of seats.

You have a minority Tory government that's failed to deliver Brexit, is replacing its PM (because said PM proved an abject failure) and is deeply unpopular at the polls. In normal circumstances, Labour would be clamouring for a confidence vote to bring down the government and trigger an early GE.

Corbyn is observing radio silence.

Wordsmith
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
Corbyn is observing radio silence.
Its still his stock answer when questioned about anything at all. He claims to want a GE but as you say he will haemorrhage seats as will the Tories. Hopefully the libtards as well.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Its still his stock answer when questioned about anything at all. He claims to want a GE but as you say he will haemorrhage seats as will the Tories. Hopefully the libtards as well.
The 'Librards' will do well in any early GE. With the Tories as the party nominally trying to deliver Brexit and Labour sitting on the fence, they are the main recipients of votes from people wanting to remain in the EU.

Wordsmith
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
The 'Librards' will do well in any early GE. With the Tories as the party nominally trying to deliver Brexit and Labour sitting on the fence, they are the main recipients of votes from people wanting to remain in the EU.

Wordsmith
I suppose they have been in the wilderness for a while since sell out clegg cost them his own job. Still a few more years would gladden my heart!
 
The 'more democracy in the EU' mantra is working really well with Brexit, an anti-EU government in Italy and significant gains by the populist parties in the European elections.

And that is when the EU is still trying to expand its powers by stealth. Wait until the EU puts forward a new treaty with new powers for the EU. Then the fur will fly.

Remember standing still is not an option for the EU. They have to make changes to deal with the structural flaws in the euro. And they need to get that process well underway before the next recession hits - or the euro is toast.

Brexit has chewed up three years the EU could have more profitably have put to use in sorting out the euros problems. As well as fornicating the Tory party, May may well have fornicated the euro - and by extension the EU.

Wordsmith
I'm not so sure those three years have being unprofitable. The EU has had running a major effort through the media across Europe, pushing the idea that the British are finished and the union really IS the only option....

Who would rock the boat ? you have listed a variety of populist groups and the German constitutional court. Those are challenges certainly, but the EU is adept and writing stuff in such a way that the whole apparatus is largely below the surface.. I don't dispute your euro crisis, but people tend to cling together in crisis until one or more bolt for the lifeboats.
 
Don't bank on that happening anytime soon. Both Labour and the Tories want to avid one like the plague. They'll both lose large amounts of seats.

You have a minority Tory government that's failed to deliver Brexit, is replacing its PM (because said PM proved an abject failure) and is deeply unpopular at the polls. In normal circumstances, Labour would be clamouring for a confidence vote to bring down the government and trigger an early GE.

Corbyn is observing radio silence.

Wordsmith

My bold, I copy this from another thread I posted it in, I think this is the way forward.
seeing the recent deselection of a tory MP, I foresee this as being a good way to keep the sods eye on the ball i.e. carry out the wishes of their electorate. Deselect your Remainer Conservative MP


 
I'm not so sure those three years have being unprofitable. The EU has had running a major effort through the media across Europe, pushing the idea that the British are finished and the union really IS the only option....

Who would rock the boat ? you have listed a variety of populist groups and the German constitutional court. Those are challenges certainly, but the EU is adept and writing stuff in such a way that the whole apparatus is largely below the surface.. I don't dispute your euro crisis, but people tend to cling together in crisis until one or more bolt for the lifeboats.

The EU is now pushing the agenda that to be anti EUrope, is to be fascist, to criticise the EU is fostering ‘hate’, that any political dissent is now ‘hate speech’.
Verhofstad and co are now pushing for anti EU and anti federalism speech to be banned in the interests of ‘harmony’ and public ‘safety’.

New EU Directive Limits Hate Speech, Establishes European Content Quotas - Intellectual Property Watch
 
Orange Man Bad.

All Remainers absolutely hate President Trump for reasons they are unable to articulate coherently.
Indeed they are:

Drumcree.PNG


Welcome to the Garvaghy Road! :)

Hang on, you didn't mean that type of Orangeman did you . . . ?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I'm not so sure those three years have being unprofitable. The EU has had running a major effort through the media across Europe, pushing the idea that the British are finished and the union really IS the only option....

Who would rock the boat ? you have listed a variety of populist groups and the German constitutional court. Those are challenges certainly, but the EU is adept and writing stuff in such a way that the whole apparatus is largely below the surface.. I don't dispute your euro crisis, but people tend to cling together in crisis until one or more bolt for the lifeboats.
Always a pleasure to have an amiable dispute with someone who can constructively set out an opposing point of view. (Site bell ends please note).

The flaw in your argument is that treaty change has to be unanimous, and some countries are mandated to hold referendums on new treaties. Other governments who don't want treaty change may offer a referendum (in the expectation the treaty will be rejected) as an excuse not to accept the treaty.

In any event, the timescale for treaty change is not within the EU's control. Economic activity within the bloc is slowing and if/when the next recession arrives, the euro will be in trouble. The EU is running out of time.

As such, I suspect the incoming PM will find it easy to get changes to May's WA so it gets through parliament. The European Commission will then try and ram treaty change through the EU - promoting a number of countries to put the teddy launcher onto an auto-load cycle.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
My bold, I copy this from another thread I posted it in, I think this is the way forward.
seeing the recent deselection of a tory MP, I foresee this as being a good way to keep the sods eye on the ball i.e. carry out the wishes of their electorate. Deselect your Remainer Conservative MP


More MPs now finding not Brexiting has real world consequences. In this case, constituency activists who have laboured long and hard to maintain a sitting MP and local councillors not liking Remain supporting MPs who have obstructed Brexit passing the Commons and cost them local council seats, MEPs and votes.

Les peasants, c'est revolting.

Wordsmith
 
More MPs now finding not Brexiting has real world consequences. In this case, constituency activists who have laboured long and hard to maintain a sitting MP and local councillors not liking Remain supporting MPs who have obstructed Brexit passing the Commons and cost them local council seats, MEPs and votes.

Les peasants, c'est revolting.

Wordsmith
This is what I heard on 30th March happening.
Good.
 
Always a pleasure to have an amiable dispute with someone who can constructively set out an opposing point of view. (Site bell ends please note).

The flaw in your argument is that treaty change has to be unanimous, and some countries are mandated to hold referendums on new treaties. Other governments who don't want treaty change may offer a referendum (in the expectation the treaty will be rejected) as an excuse not to accept the treaty.

In any event, the timescale for treaty change is not within the EU's control. Economic activity within the bloc is slowing and if/when the next recession arrives, the euro will be in trouble. The EU is running out of time.

As such, I suspect the incoming PM will find it easy to get changes to May's WA so it gets through parliament. The European Commission will then try and ram treaty change through the EU - promoting a number of countries to put the teddy launcher onto an auto-load cycle.

Wordsmith

Well........

Germany is the person of colour in the Federal EUrope woodpile, but....

Germans are allergic to any accusations of Fascism, you can get anything past the Germans if you wrap it in anti fascist paper.

Verhoftadt and co know this, hence the subtle shift to any anti EU federalism being portrayed as fascism.

The Germans will be broken on their Third Reich past to pave the way to an EU Forth Reich.
 

Grownup_Rafbrat

LE
Book Reviewer
Always a pleasure to have an amiable dispute with someone who can constructively set out an opposing point of view. (Site bell ends please note).

The flaw in your argument is that treaty change has to be unanimous, and some countries are mandated to hold referendums on new treaties. Other governments who don't want treaty change may offer a referendum (in the expectation the treaty will be rejected) as an excuse not to accept the treaty.

In any event, the timescale for treaty change is not within the EU's control. Economic activity within the bloc is slowing and if/when the next recession arrives, the euro will be in trouble. The EU is running out of time.

As such, I suspect the incoming PM will find it easy to get changes to May's WA so it gets through parliament. The European Commission will then try and ram treaty change through the EU - promoting a number of countries to put the teddy launcher onto an auto-load cycle.

Wordsmith
If you recall the EU has previous for constructing treaties to not look like constitutional change, largely through the device of the native civil service/courts and politicians going along with the fiction....

I suspect your right that they will be difficulties, but if they are couched in a twin speed Europe and those on the outer ring will be granted the blessed opt outs they could eventually carve out what they need. As I once patiently tried to tell Grac (my only ignore signatory), the opt outs are largely useless if the rest plow ahead.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Well........

Germany is the person of colour in the Federal EUrope woodpile, but....

Germans are allergic to any accusations of Fascism, you can get anything past the Germans if you wrap it in anti fascist paper.

Verhoftadt and co know this, hence the subtle shift to any anti EU federalism being portrayed as fascism.

The Germans will be broken on their Third Reich past to pave the way to an EU Forth Reich.
There are several problems with your analysis.
  1. The Germans have been gaming the euro and benefiting at the expense of the other euro members. The Germans won't want to hand over that power.
  2. The Germans won't want to hand over their cheque book to the EU.
  3. The Germans won't want to start transferring even more German tax payer's money to Club Med.
  4. The Germans can't transfer further sovereignty to the EU without a referendum mandated by their constitutional court.
Germany is happy with the status quo - they're the big winners from it. Whatever the EU does to try to save the euro won't involve Germany ceding powers to Brussels.

Wordsmith
 
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