Brexit Phase Two - Trade

[Alan Partridge]

@Alan Partridge doesn't ignore reality. He's just in a totally different one from the rest of us. Except @Baglock fellow traveller and f*cktard of the site.

 

[Brotherton Lad]

More pointless expenses

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'

The post-Brexit customs system favoured by Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiteers could cost businesses up to £20bn a year, officials have suggested.

The chief executive of HM Revenue and Customs told MPs firms would have to pay £32.50 for each customs declaration under the so-called "max fac" solution.

John Thompson said any new system could take up to five years to fully work.

We know that there were in 2016 almost 200m intra-EU consignments. So that is the base number. That has been audited by the NAO and is in a report on the customs declaration service.

The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year. The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.

So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.

[That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.

You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.

So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.

George is a big fan:

 

[Deleted 145301]

George is a big fan:

Surprisingly good vfm being in the EU, on reflection

 

[History_Man]

Given that the EU imports more to us than we export to them, the Treasury would rightly anticipate making a tidy profit on Customs declarations. It is not all one-way traffic.

 

[History_Man]

Surprisingly good vfm being in the EU, on reflection

I wouldn't trust a word that George Osborne said if he told me that it was Christmas and Santa had just landed on my roof...

 

[History_Man]

More remainiac whinging
The Van Driver Being Put Out Of Business By Brexit - LBC

An accurate reflection of the facts as they are; this, of course, could be expedited but some sort of regulatory regime will have to exist. Of course, membership of the CU prevents us from conducting frictionless trade with countries outside of the EU. As a nation, we need to decide what we want...

 

[Alan Partridge]

I wouldn't trust a word that George Osborne said if he told me that it was Christmas and Santa had just landed on my roof...

Reminds me of the old gag, even if Theresa May could walk on water, George Osbourne would run a Standard headline that says ”May steals lifeguards jobs”

 

[irlsgt]

Customs plan 'could leave UK business £20bn worse off'

 

[Deleted 145301]

Given that the EU imports more to us than we export to them, the Treasury would rightly anticipate making a tidy profit on Customs declarations. It is not all one-way traffic.

What about all those companies that have stated to parliament that their JIT manufacturing operations will be compromised should this kind of friction occur?

If chunks of your tax base relocate, is it still profitable?

 

[Deleted 145301]

I wouldn't trust a word that George Osborne said if he told me that it was Christmas and Santa had just landed on my roof...

He tweeted the testimony of the HMRC head to parliament. Should we disregard this since he tweeted it?

 

[History_Man]

What about all those companies that have stated to parliament that their JIT manufacturing operations will be compromised should this kind of friction occur?

If chunks of your tax base relocate, is it still profitable?

Then companies from countries who now have frictionless trade with the UK will seek to take advantage of the gap in the marketplace. Business, like nature, abhors a vacuum.

 

[Deleted 145301]

Then companies from countries who now have frictionless trade with the UK will seek to take advantage of the gap in the marketplace. Business, like nature, abhors a vacuum.

Such as?

 

[History_Man]

He tweeted the testimony of the HMRC head to parliament. Should we disregard this since he tweeted it?

Not at all but Osborne has an agenda. As for Jon Thompson, have you considered that he is looking to reinstate HMRC's primacy at the borders? It's all politics...

 

[History_Man]

Such as?

You have access to Google... Both the Americans and Japanese have been conducting reconnaissance here (seldom wasted and all that). The UK is a marketplace of 65+ m people. If the EU isn't interested, they most definitely are.

 

[Deleted 145301]

You have access to Google... Both the Americans and Japanese have been conducting reconnaissance here (seldom wasted and all that). The UK is a marketplace of 65+ m people. If the EU isn't interested, they most definitely are.

I think you've made that up.

Japan has been warning the UK of the danger our current course

Japan says trade deal with EU is 'first priority' over deal with UK after Brexit

Japan ambassador’s Brexit warning: there won’t be a deal better than the single market

Japan just issued a chilling warning to Theresa May over Brexit