Brexit Phase Two - Trade

It's because you've misinterpreted both the chart and the article:

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Impact on other EU economies much smaller than for UK

We found that this would leave the level of UK GDP some 2.0% – or £16bn in cash terms – lower at the end of 2020 compared with our baseline. The impact on the remaining EU countries, including Ireland, would meanwhile be much smaller.

The notion that the UK could simply walk away from Brexit negotiations and rely on WTO rules to trade with the world is deeply flawed, our study concluded. The UK would need to re-establish more than 750 very complex international arrangements just to maintain the status quo.
I read the whole article, and I am afraid the error is yours.

Oxford Economics looked at the impact per member nation. I simply summed up that impact - and it adds up to 4.7% reduction.

I don’t give a flying pig that it’s impact is lower per individual nation. It’s overall eff3ct on the EU that matters.
 
You might want to keep an eye on Macron, someone needs to fill the EU gap for the US now that we're leaving. You also need to get your priorities sorted.

France move up to third in Eurovision betting as Head of Delegation prepares for victory | Metro News
Agreed (and noted with humour about the Eurovision, but don’t underestimate the Australian girl) - the point of posting the article is that Macron is strutting the world stage, not Merkel.

I rather think Macron would do well to sort out his problems at home before he lectures Trump.
 
Studiously being ignored here.....

Let me put it this way, so you can all understand just how ducking stupid you are looking:

Brexit means a 2% drop in the UK economy, and a 13 billion a year windfall. And the UK will crash and burn.

Brexit means a 5% drop in the EU economy and a 13 billion deficit, and they are into a golden era of free cakes and lemonade.

If its not that hard please tell me why.....
Now you just need to explain why damaging the vast majority of our regional economies, including our own is a good idea.
 
Now you just need to explain why damaging the vast majority of our regional economies, including our own is a good idea.
It’s not a good idea. My position has Always been that the UK should have reformed the EU from within.

My question, often asked on this thread, is what people did pre Brexit to assit that reformation.

How many on here protested when the French forced the EU to open a second HQ?

How many protested about the accounts? The corruption?

My points in posting those figures are:

1. Anyone who thinks the EU will not suffer is dreaming

2. The attitude of the EU in punishing the Uk is incredibly stupid. It’s only going to hurt themselves.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Lets start with statement 1 in the report.
Public finances. Brexit is forecast to mean less money for public services generally, including the
NHS, due to lower economic growth and productivity.
There is a range of forecasts ranging from good to bad on the results of Brexit. And yet the report chooses to focus purely on the negative ones.

Similarly
Drugs and medical devices. Without special agreements on issues such as regulatory alignment and marketing approvals, the UK will lose access to many of the networks, approval systems and databases that allow these goods to flow freely between the UK and the rest of the EU. There is also a risk that the UK could become a lower priority market when it comes to the launch of new drugs. The result may be a delay in the ability of UK patients to access these products.
In the absence of a definite Brexit agreement, that can only be pure speculation.

The only reports I show any interest in are ones that discus the pros and cons of Brexit and show some balance in their analysis. Ones that are flat out negative about Brexit I assess are being more about the author's personal agenda and less about being an objective analysis.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
...The notion that the UK could simply walk away from Brexit negotiations and rely on WTO rules to trade with the world is deeply flawed, our study concluded. The UK would need to re-establish more than 750 very complex international arrangements just to maintain the status quo.
How many countries are there in the world? (2018) - Total & List | Worldometers
There are 195 countries in the world today. This total comprises 193 countries that are member states of the United Nations and 2 countries that are non-member observer states: the Holy See and the State of Palestine.
Feel free to explain how we would need "more than 750 very complex international arrangements" to trade with 195 countries.

Wordsmith
 
I read the whole article, and I am afraid the error is yours.

Oxford Economics looked at the impact per member nation. I simply summed up that impact - and it adds up to 4.7% reduction.

I don’t give a flying pig that it’s impact is lower per individual nation. It’s overall eff3ct on the EU that matters.
You added up percentage changes in individual countries GDPs and reckon that gives the percentage change for the overall group?

So, let's say me and 20 friends have a ten pounds. We each spend 50p, or 5%. By your reasoning as a group we'd have spent 100% of our money.
 
What a good article, although I feel there are some on here who would disagree. That sums up my thoughts on M Barnier very well and also (reading between the lines which seems soooo important to some Remainers) it explains the methods Barnier has been using and which have been shot down when placed before the Council of Europe.

I almost get the imprtession that the Council of Europe are quite happy to have Barnier doing this job as it keeps him away from the workings of the EU!
Barnier is what he is, an ultra chauvinistic Frenchman.
He cant help it, its his nature
 
It’s not a good idea. My position has Always been that the UK should have reformed the EU from within.

My question, often asked on this thread, is what people did pre Brexit to assit that reformation.

How many on here protested when the French forced the EU to open a second HQ?

How many protested about the accounts? The corruption?

My points in posting those figures are:

1. Anyone who thinks the EU will not suffer is dreaming

2. The attitude of the EU in punishing the Uk is incredibly stupid. It’s only going to hurt themselves.
The political reality is that the EU MS are not going to give the UK the benefits of membership without any of the responsibilities.

The UK created this situation.

The UK has named multiple red lines.

ECJ, freedom of movement etc

These red lines are incompatible with the SM CU.

It's quite simple really.

However, the watering down and rubbing away of red lines continues.

The prospect of a deregulated sweatshop hell of Wordsmiths imagining seems to be receding
 
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Lets start with statement 1 in the report.


There is a range of forecasts ranging from good to bad on the results of Brexit. And yet the report chooses to focus purely on the negative ones.

Similarly


In the absence of a definite Brexit agreement, that can only be pure speculation.

The only reports I show any interest in are ones that discus the pros and cons of Brexit and show some balance in their analysis. Ones that are flat out negative about Brexit I assess are being more about the author's personal agenda and less about being an objective analysis.

Wordsmith
The UK is already losing almost as much money in lost GDP growth as our EU membership fees. There are NO net savings to be had

Brexit has been costing the UK economy £300m every week since the Leave vote
 
You added up percentage changes in individual countries GDPs and reckon that gives the percentage change for the overall group?

So, let's say me and 20 friends have a ten pounds. We each spend 50p, or 5%. By your reasoning as a group we'd have spent 100% of our money.
That seems odd.

Our friend bumhole is casting himself as a trade expert.

Strange he struggles with basic arithmetic.

I'll put it down to his post Anzac Day hangover still plaguing him
 
The political reality is that the EU MS are not going to give the UK the benefits of membership without any of the responsibilities.

The UK created this situation.

The UK has named multiple red lines.

ECJ, freedom of movement etc

These red lines are incompatible with the SM CU.

It's quite simple really.

However, the watering down and rubbing away of red lines continues.

The prospect of a deregulated sweatshop hell of Wordsmiths imagining seems to be receding

The EU is like the old fart who drives 10 miles to use the last remaining corner shop in his area protest at TESCO opening a supermarket near his village.
 

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