Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Why, do you think, it is government policy not to start? Are you saying that from 30/3/19 no aircraft will leave UK runways? That we will return to bring a maritime nation, back to sail maybe? Or are you just up on your soapbox again, repeating your mantra of how brexit will mean that the UK will sink into the sea and never be seen again, Atlantis style?
The head of the CAA - the government agency in question - has testified to Parliament that it is policy not to start. Look up Hansard if you don't believe me. If you don't accept that then frankly I have no idea what to say.

And again, please stop lying about what I said. Flights will continue. Industry will just relocate out of the UK, along with the tax revenue and jobs. How much, how fast and how many are all details that will come out in the wash.
 
Are you replying to a different comment? As I can't see what the link is between what I said and your word salad.
Er not really, they were your words and an assumption about borders you clearly know nothing about. And perhaps you and remainers should reflect on this. The function of a border is to deliniate the limits of functions. When country's sign up to "enforce " mark the use of the word Enforce the rules, it means they have to. Not that they don't hence the fact that the EU is now standing on it's head in respect of it's borders, when they are not it's borders, but the borders of nations belonging to it. According to The Lisbon treaty art 50, Countries can leave, it thus makes membership optional and therefore they are not the EU's borders. Now Aircraft are your expertise, Borders are mine.
 
So you accept that given five years aviation could be weaned off the EU teat?

Not quite the same as impossible.
Pointless and enormously expensive.

Why bother?

How can we achieve Turdsmiths dream of being a 'lean', 'agile' and 'lightouch' sweatshop if we are spending extra billions on this kind of thing?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Meanwhile, the chances of the UK remaining in the customs union recede even further. After JRM called it 'cretinous' yesterday, we now have:

DUP threatens to bring down Theresa May's Government if it crosses Customs Union red line
The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.

Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.
As I said before, May (even if she wanted to) could not get the legislation for remaining in the customs union through the Commons without Labour support. Which would result in a leadership challenge, here removal as PM and a GE.

So, it looks like remaining in the customs union ain't going to happen.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
But assuming a 2% GDP growth, (to keep the maths simple.

No deal means GDP will still grow at 1.84%

A free trade deal means GDP will still grow at 1.9%

Remaining in the customs union means GDP will still grow at 1.96%.
Frankly, no economic forecast is accurate enough to state that the economy will grow at 1.84% as opposed to 1.96% a year over a 15 year timescale. As such, it's absolute BS. Governments and economic forecasters have enough trouble getting their forecasts right over a year, let alone fifteen.

I tend to file such reports in my bathroom, neatly torn up into squares for use as toilet paper.

Wordsmith
 
Bumhole sounds like a reasonable chap.

He's just dived into the discussion advancing arguments that were debunked months and months ago.

Nothing against him, of course
Post ANZAC day hangover is over, and back on deck.

I’m not reasonable at all, I am rational....

Happy to look at the “debunking” - but let’s cut out the Bollox and bull-shoot when debunking.

What is clear is that Those against Brexit fall into multiple camps:

1. Francophiles, Germanic-Philes etc. I accept that they love Europe - I lived in France for 5 years, had a crazy but beautiful girlfriend, great job and a lot of fun.
2. Retirees living in Spain, holiday home in Provence etc,
3. Left wing socialists who think the EU suits their brand of politics.

It might help if posters declared positions, but to be honest I am not thrilled with any of the above, for various reasons. The interests of the nation and the views of the majority outweigh someone’s desire to buy a cheap farmhouse holiday home, or sip French wine. And if it s politics - well stand in the next election and don’t do it by stealth.

And fwiw my little Japanese wife had a dream that we would sell up and retire to the south of France ourselves. Brexit blew that idea away so I am not thrilled about it.

But I am man enough to respect the views of the majority even if it ruins my plans.
 
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The other thing I cannot grasp, with my small brain, is Skids position.

MBAs are worthless, waste of money and blah blah blah.

But Brexit was a vote by the uneducated who don’t understand the argument.

Cake and eat it or what.
 
Frankly, no economic forecast is accurate enough to state that the economy will grow at 1.84% as opposed to 1.96% a year over a 15 year timescale. As such, it's absolute BS. Governments and economic forecasters have enough trouble getting their forecasts right over a year, let alone fifteen.

I tend to file such reports in my bathroom, neatly torn up into squares for use as toilet paper.

Wordsmith
I was merely trying to point out that some of the numbers are being deliberately misrepresented.

8% worse off doesn’t equate to an 8% drop in GDP. Merely an 8% drop in the forecast gdp growth rate....a small % of an even smaller %
 
Careful now, stay strong! Just say "I am Brotherton Lad and I am an apologist". You will feel so much better and you will then have the opportunity to tell the thread your story.

Just don't give the first apology and you will be fine. :D
I think there's a difference between an apologiser and an apologist.
 
Well, if you read the assessment given, 8% reduction in growth without a trade deal sounds horrific.

Here's how the government's leaked economic forecasts for Brexit compare to 4 others

But assuming a 2% GDP growth, (to keep the maths simple.

No deal means GDP will still grow at 1.84%

A free trade deal means GDP will still grow at 1.9%

Remaining in the customs union means GDP will still grow at 1.96%.

No assessment has shown that the UK leaving the EU will reduce GDP growth into negative numbers, they merely show that UK economic growth ‘may’ increase at a reduced rate.

What the ass segments don’t take into account is positive steps leaving the EU will have. What will be the positive impact of an Anglo Australian trade deal?
The whole so called economic argument is missing the point. Like a cancer or a bad haircut, the EU is politically and economically rotten for the vast majority of ordinary folk. It is elitist, benefits the few not the many (stolen from Corbynstania) and in order to fix it we need to remove ourselves from its clutches.
Clearly, the removal of the rotten stuff, always found at the base, will need the prior removal of some good bits and thus there is an inevitable decline. But the result is regeneration to a state that would otherwise be unattainable.
This is the essence of the argumement.
Remainers mostly occupy the good ground while the majority fester in the bowels like a mushroom farm, kept in the dark and fed on bullshit. Time for the surgeons knife.....sure, it will hurt, but not those who are already so numb they can't feel it.
Time for change and the sooner we act, the sooner we recover.
 
The whole so called economic argument is missing the point. Like a cancer or a bad haircut, the EU is politically and economically rotten for the vast majority of ordinary folk. It is elitist, benefits the few not the many (stolen from Corbynstania) and in order to fix it we need to remove ourselves from its clutches.
Clearly, the removal of the rotten stuff, always found at the base, will need the prior removal of some good bits and thus there is an inevitable decline. But the result is regeneration to a state that would otherwise be unattainable.
This is the essence of the argumement.
Remainers mostly occupy the good ground while the majority fester in the bowels like a mushroom farm, kept in the dark and fed on bullshit. Time for the surgeons knife.....sure, it will hurt, but not those who are already so numb they can't feel it.
Time for change and the sooner we act, the sooner we recover.
I couldn’t agree with you more.

Certain Central European nations have historically accepted a lack of democracy for a boost in the economy.

I’m wanting out of the EU for a whole host of reasons, the economics is a very small input. I’m happy to live in a ditch if it involves abiding by democratic principals
 
One thought that went though my mind in the shower this morning, as I waited for the asprins to kick in and the vomiting to stop, is this:

An awful lot of the EU agreements were made with the UK as a partner. Has anyone any opinion on the future legality of those agreements?

International trade is my area of expertise, not international law, and the EU do things their own way, but if a party to an agreement, especially a major partner and one of three financial contributors, pulls out, I think I could find you a team of lawyers who would challenge the legality of the agreement moving forward.

I’m just throwing it out for discusssion - I haven’t thought it through yet.

Any ideas anyone?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
The whole so called economic argument is missing the point. Like a cancer or a bad haircut, the EU is politically and economically rotten for the vast majority of ordinary folk.
Indeed. As I've frequently flagged the eurozone is going to be in deep merde when the next recession arrives. Banks are now annually stress tested to show they could survive an economic downturn. No such equivalent tests are currently being carried out on the eurozone.

With Greek debt at over 180% of GDP and rising, there can only be one answer to the stress tests - Greece will default on its debts, throwing the eurozone into disarray.

Yet such analysis never features in post Brexit scenarios. Possibly because for the UK to discuss it would be politically explosive. And the EU can't discus it because borrowing costs for the weaker eurozone countries would inevitably rise and cause significant problems before the next recession.

About time someone did an analysis of how the eurozone will fair in the next recession and how that would affect the UK.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
International trade is my area of expertise, not international law, and the EU do things their own way, but if a party to an agreement, especially a major partner and one of three financial contributors, pulls out, I think I could find you a team of lawyers who would challenge the legality of the agreement moving forward.

I’m just throwing it out for discusssion - I haven’t thought it through yet.

Any ideas anyone?
The eurozone would refer it to the ECJ for a legal decision.

Which would inevitably rule in favour of the EU.

Wordsmith
 
Well, if you read the assessment given, 8% reduction in growth without a trade deal sounds horrific.

Here's how the government's leaked economic forecasts for Brexit compare to 4 others

But assuming a 2% GDP growth, (to keep the maths simple.

No deal means GDP will still grow at 1.84%

A free trade deal means GDP will still grow at 1.9%

Remaining in the customs union means GDP will still grow at 1.96%.

No assessment has shown that the UK leaving the EU will reduce GDP growth into negative numbers, they merely show that UK economic growth ‘may’ increase at a reduced rate.

What the ass segments don’t take into account is positive steps leaving the EU will have. What will be the positive impact of an Anglo Australian trade deal?
Oxford predicted in late 2017 2% reduction in the UK economy.

Over the cliff? No deal Brexit would cut UK growth by 1 point a year

I would disputed their logic when they say “The impact on the remaining EU countries, including Ireland, would meanwhile be much smaller.”

Look at the chart and add up the impact. By individual nation it’s not a lot, but to the EU it is virtually catastrophic.

It’s a 4.7% reduction in the EU economy.

Hands up all those posters who think the EU can take an almost 5% drop in their economy AND a 13 billion reduction in funding.

My hand is staying well down under the table.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
You miss our advantage- we became an Empire because we could hang loose and exploit our enemies weaknesses. The view that we can be part of our enemies and be forewarned is only of any use if we can use them to our advantage. Playing by the rules and remaining weak means we have lost clout. Trade is just peaceful war.
I could explain how wrong you are, how muddled your thinking is and how silly that is. If you think all we have to do is channel our inner Francis Drake and nip off and singe the king of Spain’s beard.
No wonder you were fooled by a bus.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
The other thing I cannot grasp, with my small brain, is Skids position.

MBAs are worthless, waste of money and blah blah blah.

But Brexit was a vote by the uneducated who don’t understand the argument.

Cake and eat it or what.
Where have I ever said MBAs were worthless. The dame worked hard for hers. The view I take on them is if they’re the all knowing oracle and worthier than an econ masters or degree.
How come they too missed the slump/crash/banking collapse? I could be wrong but not even David Icke was warning us about it.

There’s quoting and making stuff up. Vast difference.
 

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