Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Describe to me exactly how we influenced the laws applied by the ECJ. Don't forget, the electorate have already decided that we don't have influence in the EU and have voted to leave. Now you say we did influence the laws, all I am asking for is a demonstration of how the UK influenced the EU laws. Just saying "Well we did so there" does not cut the mustard!

No! No! No!

We’re losing control because a bloke in Munch rather than Derby signs a bit of paper saying this RR engine is built proper.
 
Perhaps not, but we certainly had influence over the laws they apply. We will now have none.
perhaps you should read the eye this week. P21 on the matter of Edinburgh's Royal High in school to establish just how much Esteem the ECJ is really held particularly in Scotland .
"To investigate this the ECJ would require sight of such key evidence as the 2014 contract between the council and its "preferred developer" to establish its validity under EU law. But Edinburgh's council insists "The contract documents cannot be provided. This is commercially sensitive information" So the Truth will be covered up, the needless appeal will go ahead-and whatever the outcome, m'learned friends will coin it at public expense."

Sorta fills you with confidence about the relevance of the ECJ doesn't it?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
It’s received @ €50 Billion in EEC/EU freebies since 1973, but is now a nett contributor.
But things are about to get much worse

REVEALED: Ireland's EU payments to sky-rocket - ex-diplomat SLATES Brussels 'CASH GRAB'
As I've commented before, the UK can expect a period of financial turbulence during the transition period before things shake down. After that, there should be no more day-to-day problems in trade with the EU.

The EU's problems are going to be deeper seated and this is just one of them. After the UK's budgetary contribution of £9 billion dries up, a lot more countries are going to find themselves net contributors - and hence unhappy. For example, the Visegrád Group of four Central European nations – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia - are going to be unhappy bunnies, liable to vote as a bloc to oppose many European commission initiatives and otherwise become an awkward squad.

In addition, given the European Commission's incessant demands for a larger budget, it's good odds that net contributors will be asked to pay more and net recipients get less in the next EU budget, irrespective of the changes due to the loss of the UKs contribution.

It's one of a number of things which make me think the EU will split into two rival camps - those countries that want more Europe and those that want less. Which in turn will lead to political paralysis.

Wordsmith
 
perhaps you should read the eye this week. P21 on the matter of Edinburgh's Royal High in school to establish just how much Esteem the ECJ is really held particularly in Scotland .
"To investigate this the ECJ would require sight of such key evidence as the 2014 contract between the council and its "preferred developer" to establish its validity under EU law. But Edinburgh's council insists "The contract documents cannot be provided. This is commercially sensitive information" So the Truth will be covered up, the needless appeal will go ahead-and whatever the outcome, m'learned friends will coin it at public expense."

Sorta fills you with confidence about the relevance of the ECJ doesn't it?

ECJ: Give us the paperwork! :\\\\
Scottish Council: Awah gae boil yer heed :evil:
ECJ: :crying:
 
I couldn't disagree more.

£13 billion or whatever the figure is looks like it will be made up by other member stats. It will be difficult, but nothing I've seen indicates that this is an existential issue.

Do you have any evidence that the EU is going to cave in?

[/URL]
The EU draft budget redirects billions of euro to southern Europe - Finance Apprise

The European Commission (EC) also plans to introduce changes to the conditions for applying for funding, including compliance with the rule of law, and there will also be more restrictions on how to use European money

The details of the reform are still being clarified, but according to diplomats and officials, the expectations are the result of redeployment from Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries to southern countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain and even to some regions of France.

One of the reasons for decreasing the fund will be also filling the funding gaps that will open after Brexit. In the words of EU budget commissioner Gunther Oettinger, “it is necessary” to cut 5% to 10%.

Panic in the EU...
 
Oh I just love this;
"The European representatives are also preparing changes on the conditions for Member States for European funding, which will require some countries to use most of their own funds for project implementation. "
And then claim it's "European funding"
Bit like Labour really- bribe the weak-get the vote.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
The EU draft budget redirects billions of euro to southern Europe - Finance Apprise

The details of the reform are still being clarified, but according to diplomats and officials, the expectations are the result of redeployment from Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries to southern countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain and even to some regions of France.
Several things are noticeable from this.
  • Poland and Hungary - already unhappy with the EU - will be unhappier still if their structural funding is cut. They'll make noises about leaving to pressure the European Commission. And Vald will go fishing in troubled waters by offering a very good trade deal - which Poland and Hungary will be unable to accept under EU rules.
  • Money is being transferred from some of the poorest nations in the EU to some of the richer ones.
  • By an amazing coincidence the money is being transferred to eurozone countries most liable to collapse when the recession comes along - 'Italy, Greece and Spain and even to some regions of France'.
The money being transferred will be a couple of orders of magnitude short of what's required to stop a eurozone collapse and will also stoke up tensions within the EU. I can understand why their're doing this - because meaningful reform of the EU/eurozone is politically impossible. But it'll have f-all effect when the next recession rolls along. And in the meantime, Eastern Europe will be royally fornicated off by the loss of funding.

Wordsmith
 
The EU draft budget redirects billions of euro to southern Europe - Finance Apprise

The details of the reform are still being clarified, but according to diplomats and officials, the expectations are the result of redeployment from Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries to southern countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain and even to some regions of France.

Panic in the EU...

Taking money from the more Euroseptic eastern EU states to give to the EU 'Old Guard'… what could possibly go wrong wth that plan!
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Taking money from the more Euroseptic eastern EU states to give to the EU 'Old Guard'… what could possibly go wrong wth that plan!
If the European Commission really wants to sort out the deep seated structural problems in the EU, it could tell Germany to cut its excessive budget surplus and fine it (under existing powers) if it didn't. It could also tell France to get its budget deficit down from 100% of GDP to 60% of GDP - again using its powers to fine France it it didn't.

The silence thus far on both issues - which both pose a threat to the long term stability of the EU - has been deafening.

Wordsmith
 
The EU draft budget redirects billions of euro to southern Europe - Finance Apprise

The European Commission (EC) also plans to introduce changes to the conditions for applying for funding, including compliance with the rule of law, and there will also be more restrictions on how to use European money

The details of the reform are still being clarified, but according to diplomats and officials, the expectations are the result of redeployment from Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries to southern countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain and even to some regions of France.

One of the reasons for decreasing the fund will be also filling the funding gaps that will open after Brexit. In the words of EU budget commissioner Gunther Oettinger, “it is necessary” to cut 5% to 10%.

Panic in the EU...
If the EU is panicking, why has it shown a united front the whole way wrt to negotiating with the UK?

Are you expecting individual MS to break cover over the summer and autumn to cut the UK a better deal?

We have seen no evidence of this and whilst I might be wrong, I think that you are advancing the same tired arguments about the EU needing the UK more than we need it, our biggest trading partners that have been proven to be false since the referendum.

You appear to be stuck in 2016 matey
 
There’s already one in the house, never felt the need for two.
Congratulations on yours. Your mum must be thrilled.
an MBA is always a red rag to those who don't have one.... you neatly illustrate the problem.

Good MBAs (top 20 in the world) are still valuable, but these days everyone has one off the back of a cornflakes packet.

But FWIW my postgrad in Economics was a lot harder, and my MSc in International Business more interesting. I don't think my mother was thrilled about any of it, and she didn't like the years and years of negations in developing nations.
 
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Baglock:

Follow this train of thought:

1. The EU is not the biggest exporting trading partner for the UK (the sale of UK made goods and services to external countries). The “Rest of World” is a bigger trading partner, by a considerable percentage.


2. The EU is the biggest importing trading partner for the UK (the sale of EU made goods into the UK). This is because of punitive tariffs, duties and trade restrictions imposed by the EU on its member states. The UK cannot buy from outside of the EU without its citizens paying money to the EU to prop up its inefficient production.


3. The UK is one of three nations who are net contributors to the EU. Other than Germany and France, the other EU nations suck at the EU teats, consuming money from UK citizens.



Those three facts scream two words – Exit or Reform. The EU is showing no sign of reforming so its Brexit.



Now follow this:

Current UK situation: The UK is currently contributing more than it is receiving (lose) for the privilege of importing more from the EU than it exports to the EU (lose) and paying more for non EU imports than it should (lose).

Lose, Lose, lose.



Current EU situation: The EU is receiving financial contributions from a member state (win) which is a net loser in trade balance with the EU (win), and is paying duties to the EU for trade outside of the EU (win).

Win, Win, Win.



It is obvious to a reasonable observer that this isn’t a fair and balanced arrangement


Future UK State post Brexit:

· Removal of net contributions to the EU will improve the financial situation. (Win)
· Removal of free access to UK markets from EU nations will improve the financial situation. (Win)
· Removal of trade restrictions to external nations will allow access to cheaper goods and services (both ways) improving the financial situation. (Win – both cheaper imports and better access to markets)

Win, Win. Win.



Future EU State post Brexit:

· Removal of net contributions from the UK will cause a budgetary shortfall and must lead to reduced programs and services and to either extra contributions from net contributor nations, or increase in the number of net contributor nations.(loss)
· Removal of free access to UK markets from EU nations will have a negative impact on the trading positions of many EU nations. (loss)

Loss, Loss

And it’s a compounding loss. Nations with substantially reduced trade balances will find themselves contributing more, or for the first time, to the EU budget.

I am not seeing a problem with a hard Brexit based on the above.

Happy to support the above with references if required.
 
If the EU is panicking, why has it shown a united front the whole way wrt to negotiating with the UK?

Are you expecting individual MS to break cover over the summer and autumn to cut the UK a better deal?

We have seen no evidence of this and whilst I might be wrong, I think that you are advancing the same tired arguments about the EU needing the UK more than we need it, our biggest trading partners that have been proven to be false since the referendum.

You appear to be stuck in 2016 matey
Under the dictatorial rule of the EU they have to show a united front.
 
Baglock:

Follow this train of thought:

1. The EU is not the biggest exporting trading partner for the UK (the sale of UK made goods and services to external countries). The “Rest of World” is a bigger trading partner, by a considerable percentage.


2. The EU is the biggest importing trading partner for the UK (the sale of EU made goods into the UK). This is because of punitive tariffs, duties and trade restrictions imposed by the EU on its member states. The UK cannot buy from outside of the EU without its citizens paying money to the EU to prop up its inefficient production.


3. The UK is one of three nations who are net contributors to the EU. Other than Germany and France, the other EU nations suck at the EU teats, consuming money from UK citizens.



Those three facts scream two words – Exit or Reform. The EU is showing no sign of reforming so its Brexit.



Now follow this:

Current UK situation: The UK is currently contributing more than it is receiving (lose) for the privilege of importing more from the EU than it exports to the EU (lose) and paying more for non EU imports than it should (lose).

Lose, Lose, lose.



Current EU situation: The EU is receiving financial contributions from a member state (win) which is a net loser in trade balance with the EU (win), and is paying duties to the EU for trade outside of the EU (win).

Win, Win, Win.



It is obvious to a reasonable observer that this isn’t a fair and balanced arrangement


Future UK State post Brexit:

· Removal of net contributions to the EU will improve the financial situation. (Win)
· Removal of free access to UK markets from EU nations will improve the financial situation. (Win)
· Removal of trade restrictions to external nations will allow access to cheaper goods and services (both ways) improving the financial situation. (Win – both cheaper imports and better access to markets)

Win, Win. Win.



Future EU State post Brexit:

· Removal of net contributions from the UK will cause a budgetary shortfall and must lead to reduced programs and services and to either extra contributions from net contributor nations, or increase in the number of net contributor nations.(loss)
· Removal of free access to UK markets from EU nations will have a negative impact on the trading positions of many EU nations. (loss)

Loss, Loss

And it’s a compounding loss. Nations with substantially reduced trade balances will find themselves contributing more, or for the first time, to the EU budget.

I am not seeing a problem with a hard Brexit based on the above.

Happy to support the above with references if required.
I don't know where to begin.

1. Firstly the rest of the world is further afield. Try reading up on Gravity model of trade - Wikipedia in short it's insanity to make trade more onerous with the trading bloc on our doorstep. Every study, including the UK governments own predicts that trade with the RoW will not plug the gap in the frictions imposed by leaving the EU

2. I'm in no rush for a race to the bottom.


3. I've already pointed out to you that the UK is already losing as much money in lost GDP due to brexit uncertainty. The'savings' are a mirage. We paid money to enjoy the benefits of a club that stimulates the UK economy. We are saving nothing.

Even under WTO rules we lose. Don't believe me, listen to a former WTO chief. It's not a magic bullet. It's another lie sold by demagogues to the gullible.

What Would A No-Deal Brexit Would Look Like? We Asked A Former WTO Chief - LBC

These points have been addressed endlessly throughout the brexit threads, so I'll disengage with you, unless you have anything different to say, or more in date than 2016, or related to current events.

I repeat, there is zero sign that the EU MS are going to cave in to the demands of an embarrassing, petulant and insulting UK government

Besides which, if you want to see what the result of a hard brexit will be to just one area, check out the brexit aviation thread. In short disaster. No flights, or signing up as a rule taker with the FAA as a possible backstop.

Good day to you
 

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