Brexit Phase Two - Trade
- Thread starter Auld-Yin
- Start date
Bollox. EU FP has been predicated to people movement to underpin a greater ponzi scheme. You do realisemreater Turkeyanent Asylum. What was our policy in the UK, keep them in their locality so they could go home? You do realise that most of the people from Syria will never go home, so it's just a case of naturalisation as opposed to permanent Asylum. Suddenly the EU wakes up to the problem and changes tack. Most of our ME doctors and Scientists didn't wait for Syria, Iraq, Egypt, etc to blow up, they had the quals and they came. And now Turkey is on route to make Hay in Syria and become a greater Turkey. You don't think they'll relinquish their occupied territories do you?
Actually I did allow a little inflation- Don't ask me what the Government is doing to counter this I'm retired. I do point out That Hilary Benn and others bemoan the fact that we have no Customs service cos they wrote it off. You asked for costings. Ball Park! I'm ready to come back and train nascent Customs officers if necessary. What I do call bull is the tripe that comes out from people who've never even got their knees brown.
Very interesting link. Some comments by the Dutch PM.
He doesn't like central control from Brussels.
On the suggestion that Holland and Germany pay more into the EU budget to make up for the lost UK contribution.
He wants to expand the euro's bailout fund but recognises this will require treaty change.
Doesn't like the way the EU uses structural funds
Doesn't like the EU Commission picking on small countries while ignoring the bigger fish.
And realises the banks in Europe are heavily indepted.
Doesn't appear to be too happy with the EU Commission.
And at the risk of saying "I told you so", he's saying much of the same things that I've been saying. Although Wordsmith has zero influence on the EU Commission, the Dutch Prime Minister has genuine clout.
Wordsmith
He doesn't like central control from Brussels.
On the suggestion that Holland and Germany pay more into the EU budget to make up for the lost UK contribution.
He wants to expand the euro's bailout fund but recognises this will require treaty change.
Doesn't like the way the EU uses structural funds
Doesn't like the EU Commission picking on small countries while ignoring the bigger fish.
And realises the banks in Europe are heavily indepted.
Doesn't appear to be too happy with the EU Commission.
And at the risk of saying "I told you so", he's saying much of the same things that I've been saying. Although Wordsmith has zero influence on the EU Commission, the Dutch Prime Minister has genuine clout.
Wordsmith
And treaty change is required to reform the Eurozone in order to put the Euro on a sustainable basis, which can accurately be described in the terms you've applied to Cameron's efforts.
The EU would do well to note this bit of the Dutch critique:
"The moment the Commission gives the impression that it strictly ensures that small countries respect the stability pact but does not apply the same oversight to Italy and France, it undermines the rules that we have agreed upon together. Italy has sovereign debt of over 130 percent of GDP while France has a debt of roughly 100 percent. That is where Mr. Juncker should be placing his focus."
Ouch!
The EU would do well to note this bit of the Dutch critique:
"The moment the Commission gives the impression that it strictly ensures that small countries respect the stability pact but does not apply the same oversight to Italy and France, it undermines the rules that we have agreed upon together. Italy has sovereign debt of over 130 percent of GDP while France has a debt of roughly 100 percent. That is where Mr. Juncker should be placing his focus."
Ouch!
With the extension of QMV to much of the decision making within the EU, no single country can block progress. The only way you can block change is to form alliances with like minded countries. Given that the UK was poor at that, and given that the UK wanted to go in a different direction to much of the EU, we faced the prospect of being consistently outvoted year after year had we remained in the EU.
However, it's noticeable that Holland was one of a group of eight countries that united to oppose Marcon's call for further integration. That's enough of a voting bloc to prevent many decisions requiring QMV being passed. As such, I suspect the EU faces deadlock on any moves to further integration.
Wordsmith
However, it's noticeable that Holland was one of a group of eight countries that united to oppose Marcon's call for further integration. That's enough of a voting bloc to prevent many decisions requiring QMV being passed. As such, I suspect the EU faces deadlock on any moves to further integration.
Wordsmith
That'll be the Italian government planning to subvert the euro. I'll bet that the EU sits up and takes notice of that. Whereupon the Italian government will also request that the EU Commission takes action against all other countries in breach of the euro's convergence criteria. Popcorn time...
In any event, one of the reasons that Italy has got sovereign debt at over 130% of GDP is down to its euro membership. The euro is too strong for the current state of its economy, resulting in a rise in imports, while exports have been progressively choked off. (A fact well known to the incoming government).
That's an almost Kafkaesque situation: Italy can't meet the euro's convergence criteria because its a member of the euro.
Wordsmith
In any event, one of the reasons that Italy has got sovereign debt at over 130% of GDP is down to its euro membership. The euro is too strong for the current state of its economy, resulting in a rise in imports, while exports have been progressively choked off. (A fact well known to the incoming government).
That's an almost Kafkaesque situation: Italy can't meet the euro's convergence criteria because its a member of the euro.
Wordsmith
There's an excellent piece in the Telegraph (apologies to those who can't get behind the paywall):
The next global recession will entirely reshape the Brexit debate
Basically it's bad news for everybody, but particularly the Eurozone as we head into the next downward cycle because it lacks flexibility and has pretty much fired off all its ammunition when QE ends in December. Italy looks odds on to play the role of Greece only, this time round, Paris and Berlin won't have the bullying option.
The next global recession will entirely reshape the Brexit debate
Basically it's bad news for everybody, but particularly the Eurozone as we head into the next downward cycle because it lacks flexibility and has pretty much fired off all its ammunition when QE ends in December. Italy looks odds on to play the role of Greece only, this time round, Paris and Berlin won't have the bullying option.
Or the money to rescue the Italian economy. Italy is definitely in the too big to fail category. Quite how the eurozone responds when a 'too big to fail' fails is an interesting conundrum.
The minnows were bullied into internal devaluation. The EU forced massive public spending cuts on Greece, et al. Which in turn forced the respective government to cut jobs and wages, restoring some of the competitiveness they'd lost due to euro membership/profligate financial policies.
No way can they do that with Italy. It's too big to bully - and might just retaliate by repudiating all debts owed to the ECB. Which would pull the eurozone temple down around the EU's ears.
Nor should we forget Spain; the Spanish banks required a partial rescue after the Lehman crash. I think the next recession might push then over the edge. A near simultaneous failure of the Italian and Spanish economies would be the double act from hell as far as the EU is concerned.
Wordsmith
The minnows were bullied into internal devaluation. The EU forced massive public spending cuts on Greece, et al. Which in turn forced the respective government to cut jobs and wages, restoring some of the competitiveness they'd lost due to euro membership/profligate financial policies.
No way can they do that with Italy. It's too big to bully - and might just retaliate by repudiating all debts owed to the ECB. Which would pull the eurozone temple down around the EU's ears.
Nor should we forget Spain; the Spanish banks required a partial rescue after the Lehman crash. I think the next recession might push then over the edge. A near simultaneous failure of the Italian and Spanish economies would be the double act from hell as far as the EU is concerned.
Wordsmith
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