Brexit Phase Two - Trade

I predict the 'professional' unelected politicians in Brussels will continue to cut off their nose to spite their face until the proper, elected Heads of State put the brakes on them and insist on a sensible solution. And so it will continue..............
You might want to check the role of Donald Tusk and what he's just said.
 
Ask Labour, they broke it. But at a guess I'd say £2 Billion for staffing infrasructure etc, which you would probably make back in a year or so from underpayments. Figures for 92-93 from the management plan was a total expenditure of 766.1 Million. Forecast yield for 90-91 were 56.7 Billion. Noteably at the cusp of the single Market EC own resources i.e share of Customs duties and Ag levies was just 2 Billion. Staff years planned for 29,797 of which 11,832 were resourced to VAT.
A guess based on figures from over 20 years ago? Which doesn't include infra and I'd hazard no inflation. So what is the government doing to deliver this?
 
They've got another motive. They'll be fully aware that the euro is a half-finished project and the next recession is going to leave it (at a minimum) in deep trouble. Anything that is likely to put a block on moves towards further political and financial integration is therefore going to be fiercely resisted.

Brexit is their nightmare writ large - it shows the Projekt (copyright F-F) is reversible. And in a years time, there will be proof positive that you can leave the EU. Euro nations don't have a way out - they've joined a financial system with no exit button. But other non-euro nations would leave in the future.

I also find it ironic that an organisation that brags that its kept the peace in Europe since the Second Great Unpleasantness may be the cause of greatly heightened tensions in Europe. In the event of a euro collapse, Germany is going to find its financial system royally trashed. Conversely the nations of southern Europe are going to blame the euro for many of their economic woes - Italy being the current cheerleader.

As a euro collapse would be catastrophic for the member states of the euro, we're potentially looking at Europe's own equivalent of the 1930's Great Depression. In those circumstances, with 25% unemployment widespread in southern Europe and the more prudent countries of northern Europe looking at semi-ruined financial systems, the recriminations are going to be on an epic scale and will also widen political fault lines. Whether it will come to fisticuffs remains to be seen, but I expect things like cutting off other EU citizens from internal benefit systems, de facto embargoes by creating artificial obstacles to goods moving across borders and so on. Europe is not going to be a happy place when the next recession arrives.

That there will be another recession is inevitable. And - based on the effects of the Lehman crash on the euro - that the euro will be in deep smeg is also inevitable. The only uncertainty is the timing.

Therefore, I think a lot of the behavior of the professional' unelected politicians in Brussels is that of people realising they've dug themselves into a deep, deep hole and flailing out as they realise an already almopst impossible solution has moved further out of reach.

The heads of state of the 27 member countries are only being more reasonable because disruption to trade will have immediate consequence in their countries, whereas a euro collapse is a future problem - and one that neither has a predictable timescale nor predictable effects.

Wordsmith
You're obsessed with the next recession. The 27 are playing hardball as you'd be aware if your focus was anywhere other than rhetoric.
 

Baglock

On ROPS
On ROPs
So… if we are only 'pretending' to leave, presumably in your view we aren't really leaving.

So… why are your panties in such a bunch over something you say is not happening?
Because we lose sovereignty and become a rule taker you gibbering fool
 
Because we lose sovereignty and become a rule taker you gibbering fool

We lose sovereignty inside the EU

"Britain is different. Of course there will be transfers of sovereignty. But would I be intelligent to draw the attention of public opinion to this fact?"

The pronouncements of Fuhrer Junker
 
For those who don't have damp gussets, the real world:
 
Thanks for that.
It’s not been sorted yet because the commission have weaponised the issue.
Am I happy they have ?,,, no.
Am I surprised ? No, it’s one of the few tools they have to try and retain a foothold in our affairs.
Will it be resolved ?
Ignore bog trotter land for a moment, and look at the tonnage of time and temp sensitive produce Europe “ exports” to us every day. As Truxx says tir is a perfectly acceptable base line. The Dutch, Spaniards and Danes are going to get very pissed off if the commission imposes something worse in an attempt to hurt us.
Now if you like return to your sarky rambling
 

skid2

On ROPS
On ROPs
Book Reviewer
Really interesting, thank you. I now know what the ‘TIR’ stamped on so many ISO containers that I have seen in so many far flung army camps across the world means!

This will, no doubt, be a bone question, but since the ROI/NI border is a road border, cannot much cross border Customs stuff be done by dint of TIR carnets, or why could a similar ‘intra-Ireland’ carnet be created?
There used to be a small trianglur piece of paper issued at the border by ‘the customs man’ cost about 2s6d (12 1/2p) and stuck to the windscreen using lipstick.
Very high tech.
 
It’s not been sorted yet because the commission have weaponised the issue.
I would imagine the ROI are not going to be pleased when they find that EU Commission inspired obstacles to free trade across the border impact on exports to their biggest market and result in an EU inspired recession.

What Irish for "Republic of Ireland Independence Party"? Farage is at a looose end - maybe he'll help set it up.

Wordsmith
 

skid2

On ROPS
On ROPs
Book Reviewer
Thanks for that.
It’s not been sorted yet because the commission have weaponised the issue.
Am I happy they have ?,,, no.
Am I surprised ? No, it’s one of the few tools they have to try and retain a foothold in our affairs.
Will it be resolved ?
Ignore bog trotter land for a moment, and look at the tonnage of time and temp sensitive produce Europe “ exports” to us every day. As Truxx says tir is a perfectly acceptable base line. The Dutch, Spaniards and Danes are going to get very pissed off if the commission imposes something worse in an attempt to hurt us.
Now if you like return to your sarky rambling

That sums up brexit and the stupidity of it. Dont understand it, ignore it. Look surprised when Johnny Foreigner craftily brings it up.
Don’t understand or can’t fix one particular problem. Let’s concentrate on one we can. Or think we can.

Failure to prepare for and solve a small problem like the Irish border. Why should anyone think you’ve the solution to another border. Which is much biggerer and busier.
 
That sums up brexit and the stupidity of it. Dont understand it, ignore it. Look surprised when Johnny Foreigner craftily brings it up.
Don’t understand or can’t fix one particular problem. Let’s concentrate on one we can. Or think we can.

Failure to prepare for and solve a small problem like the Irish border. Why should anyone think you’ve the solution to another border. Which is much biggerer and busier.
Because sarky as I said we are a big market for Dutch and especially Spanish ( and Portuguese) chilled produce, and their economies especially can ill afford to take a trade hit just to appease the commission.
Hence the Dutch pm getting twitchey.
 
Because sarky as I said we are a big market for Dutch and especially Spanish ( and Portuguese) chilled produce, and their economies especially can ill afford to take a trade hit just to appease the commission.
Hence the Dutch pm getting twitchey.

Yes but the Irish Border!
Its unpossible to sort this non problem!
The EU says so!
 

skid2

On ROPS
On ROPs
Book Reviewer
That bodes well, we can’t even negotiate the contract to ensure we win the printing of our own (dark blue ) passport.

What’s unfair competition?
The French bringing it in at a more competitive price. Isn’t that what free and unfettered trade is meant to be all about?
 

skid2

On ROPS
On ROPs
Book Reviewer
Because sarky as I said we are a big market for Dutch and especially Spanish ( and Portuguese) chilled produce, and their economies especially can ill afford to take a trade hit just to appease the commission.
Hence the Dutch pm getting twitchey.
Why are they going to take a hit? Why would the commission threaten their own members. Thats illogical.and makes no sense. It’s a two way sea barrier.

The Irish borders a different ball game. Social and political as well as economic.
 
Because. We are happy for something that looks like a free trade deal and the commission wants to punish us with something worse, the Spanish and Dutch export much more to us than us to them ergo a punitive trade deal hurts them more which particularity the southern states can ill afford, do try and keep up.
 
Yes but the Irish Border!
Its unpossible to sort this non problem!
The EU says so!
The EU are going to have to unsort it. If May agreed to the border being in the middle of the Irish sea, she'd face a massive rebellion from Tory MP's who'd see this at the first stage in a break-up of the United Kingdom. I could see 60 - 100 Tory MP's voting against, supported by the DUP and Labour. Were May to be defeated by 200 or so votes, the scale of the defeat would be such that she'd have to resign.

No way does the EU's suggested solution get through Westminster - and they're idiots to even suggest if.

And if the Brexit deal failed because of the Irish border question, resulting in significant interruption of trade (and the resulting job losses) teddies would be launched by assorted heads of state, with Juncker, Barnier and an number of senior Commission officials scanning the Situations Vacant column shortly thereafter.

Wordsmith
 
Thanks for that.
It’s not been sorted yet because the commission have weaponised the issue.
Am I happy they have ?,,, no.
Am I surprised ? No, it’s one of the few tools they have to try and retain a foothold in our affairs.
Will it be resolved ?
Ignore bog trotter land for a moment, and look at the tonnage of time and temp sensitive produce Europe “ exports” to us every day. As Truxx says tir is a perfectly acceptable base line. The Dutch, Spaniards and Danes are going to get very pissed off if the commission imposes something worse in an attempt to hurt us.
Now if you like return to your sarky rambling
It's not been sorted because we've painted ourselves into a corner with red lines but the good thing is, going by this board, pointing and saying "look a pigeon" seems to be working well.
 
The EU are going to have to unsort it. If May agreed to the border being in the middle of the Irish sea, she'd face a massive rebellion from Tory MP's who'd see this at the first stage in a break-up of the United Kingdom. I could see 60 - 100 Torty MP's voting against, supported by the DUP and Labour. Were May to be defeated by 200 or so votes, the scale of the defeat would be such that she'd have to resign.

No way does the EU's suggested solution get through Westminster - and they're idiots to even suggest if.

And if the Brexit deal failed because of the Irish border question, resulting in significant interruption of trade (and the resulting job losses) teddies would be launched by assorted heads of state, with Juncker, Barnier and an number of senior Commission officials scanning the Situations Vacant column shortly thereafter.

Wordsmith
It's a UK created issue.
 

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