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Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I predict the 'professional' unelected politicians in Brussels will continue to cut off their nose to spite their face until the proper, elected Heads of State put the brakes on them and insist on a sensible solution. And so it will continue..............
They've got another motive. They'll be fully aware that the euro is a half-finished project and the next recession is going to leave it (at a minimum) in deep trouble. Anything that is likely to put a block on moves towards further political and financial integration is therefore going to be fiercely resisted.

Brexit is their nightmare writ large - it shows the Projekt (copyright F-F) is reversible. And in a years time, there will be proof positive that you can leave the EU. Euro nations don't have a way out - they've joined a financial system with no exit button. But other non-euro nations would leave in the future.

I also find it ironic that an organisation that brags that its kept the peace in Europe since the Second Great Unpleasantness may be the cause of greatly heightened tensions in Europe. In the event of a euro collapse, Germany is going to find its financial system royally trashed. Conversely the nations of southern Europe are going to blame the euro for many of their economic woes - Italy being the current cheerleader.

As a euro collapse would be catastrophic for the member states of the euro, we're potentially looking at Europe's own equivalent of the 1930's Great Depression. In those circumstances, with 25% unemployment widespread in southern Europe and the more prudent countries of northern Europe looking at semi-ruined financial systems, the recriminations are going to be on an epic scale and will also widen political fault lines. Whether it will come to fisticuffs remains to be seen, but I expect things like cutting off other EU citizens from internal benefit systems, de facto embargoes by creating artificial obstacles to goods moving across borders and so on. Europe is not going to be a happy place when the next recession arrives.

That there will be another recession is inevitable. And - based on the effects of the Lehman crash on the euro - that the euro will be in deep smeg is also inevitable. The only uncertainty is the timing.

Therefore, I think a lot of the behavior of the professional' unelected politicians in Brussels is that of people realising they've dug themselves into a deep, deep hole and flailing out as they realise an already almopst impossible solution has moved further out of reach.

The heads of state of the 27 member countries are only being more reasonable because disruption to trade will have immediate consequence in their countries, whereas a euro collapse is a future problem - and one that neither has a predictable timescale nor predictable effects.

Wordsmith
 
Really interesting, thank you. I now know what the ‘TIR’ stamped on so many ISO containers that I have seen in so many far flung army camps across the world means!

This will, no doubt, be a bone question, but since the ROI/NI border is a road border, cannot much cross border Customs stuff be done by dint of TIR carnets, or why could a similar ‘intra-Ireland’ carnet be created?

It could, but the ROI/NI border is the Remainiacs pet ‘problem’ that really isn’t.
 
French group set to win contract to make UK passports after Brexit

FT

Brilliant...you could not make it up!
You could make it up; indeed the EU did. It is due to having to ask for tenders according to EU rules which the UK is not yet free of.
 
I predict the 'professional' unelected politicians in Brussels will continue to cut off their nose to spite their face until the proper, elected Heads of State put the brakes on them and insist on a sensible solution. And so it will continue..............
The unelected politicians in Brussels are acting under the direction of the national leaders you bellend.

Why have you got a hard on for elected heads of state all of a sudden. The Queen wasn't elected last time I checked
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
The unelected politicians in Brussels are acting under the direction of the national leaders you bellend.

Why have you got a hard on for elected heads of state all of a sudden. The Queen wasn't elected last time I checked
Is that how Selmayr got his current job? Read the papers you bellend! He was shoe-horned in and the elected leaders were set by by a fait acompli. If you think that the actions of Juncker et al are under the direction of the HofS then you are seriously deluded!
 
Nor me.
And a very recent quote from the Dutch PM says a lot too.

"The Commission should serve the EU members, not the other way around."

Quite revealing.
Is that how Selmayr got his current job? Read the papers you bellend! He was shoe-horned in and the elected leaders were set by by a fait acompli. If you think that the actions of Juncker et al are under the direction of the HofS then you are seriously deluded!
Sorry chaps. I don't read the Express for European news, hence my lack of hysteria
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
They've got another motive. They'll be fully aware that the euro is a half-finished project and the next recession is going to leave it (at a minimum) in deep trouble. Anything that is likely to put a block on moves towards further political and financial integration is therefore going to be fiercely resisted.

Brexit is their nightmare writ large - it shows the Projekt (copyright F-F) is reversible. And in a years time, there will be proof positive that you can leave the EU. Euro nations don't have a way out - they've joined a financial system with no exit button. But other non-euro nations would leave in the future.

(snip)
I agree - I would only add that Greece stayed in the Euro last time round because it was too scared of the consequences of leaving. Now everyone else has had a chance to look at the consequences of staying; stagnant, zombie economy and massive debt that can never be paid off, I suspect others might now be prepared to take the short term pain if faced with the same choice.

It would have been very interesting to see what Europe would have conceded had the Greeks said "Sod you, we're off" and threatened to leave the German and French banks holding the baby - sadly for them, they had too many Remainers and the EU knew that it could use that to hold Greece's feet to the fire.

Truly "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
I agree - I would only add that Greece stayed in the Euro last time round because it was too scared of the consequences of leaving. Now everyone else has had a chance to look at the consequences of staying; stagnant, zombie economy and massive debt that can never be paid off, I suspect others might now be prepared to take the short term pain if faced with the same choice.

It would have been very interesting to see what Europe would have conceded had the Greeks said "Sod you, we're off" and threatened to leave the German and French banks holding the baby - sadly for them, they had too many Remainers and the EU knew that it could use that to hold Greece's feet to the fire.

Truly "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
The EU loves its new Treaties which come along about every five years or so (5 Year Plans?) in which they advance the ever closer union theme just that bit more. Not enough to have member states running off to hold unwinnable referendums but just enough to move on the the next step and not allowing any backwards steps, even to adjust some errors.

Methinks Brexit has put back the next Treaty, in real termms by at least a decade. Anything that the EU put forward now has to be so bland that even Farage would not mind!
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Nor me.
And a very recent quote from the Dutch PM says a lot too.

"The Commission should serve the EU members, not the other way around."

Quite revealing.
Which shows the contradiction at the heart of the euro.

To survive it needs centrally set budgets from Brussels and a transfer of wealth from wealthy to poorer countries. That's never going to be acceptable to the heads of state.

For example, the European Commission would dearly like Merkel to run a more expansionist financial policy, thus increasing imports, decreasing exports and reducing Germany's budget surplus. Merkel has utterly refused any such suggestions and will never hand over the power to Brussels to do so.

Wordsmith
 
And at the departing end. The point is though that all this guff about the difficulties of getting goods across borders is just that - guff.

Even in the current EU set up there is actually a lot of admin required.
From what I can make out.

This system appears to offer a good solution to the issue of import/exports from the RoI to third countries via mainland UK. It does not appear to offer any solution to the potential increased burden of checks for consignments originating, terminatinng or being adjusted within the UK.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Who gives a damn?

We're pretending to leave, so we'll be at the mercy of the 'monster' regardless.
That's a change in tune! Still maintaining the bigot/troll theme though!

Oh, and if we are 'oretending to leave' then you as a Remainiac should be up in arms as your rights are eroded!
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Well that's the point. The EU
A shouldn't have been asked to make that sacrifice
B can't sustain it. It's what I've been arguing all the time, it just seems to me that the nett payers are being milked on the altar of a ME civil war which is designed to engineer a monoculture in the ME. It's one thing to extend a helping hand, quite another to immolate one's self by design. The EU controls nothing in reality and can't afford it.
I think you’ve got your interferers in the Middle East mixed up. Shouldn’t you be laying the Middle East thing at the door of the existant USA as opposed to the non existent USE.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I agree - I would only add that Greece stayed in the Euro last time round because it was too scared of the consequences of leaving. Now everyone else has had a chance to look at the consequences of staying; stagnant, zombie economy and massive debt that can never be paid off, I suspect others might now be prepared to take the short term pain if faced with the same choice.

It would have been very interesting to see what Europe would have conceded had the Greeks said "Sod you, we're off" and threatened to leave the German and French banks holding the baby - sadly for them, they had too many Remainers and the EU knew that it could use that to hold Greece's feet to the fire.
I'm am going to be very interested to see if the new Italian government carry out their threat to create a parallel currency to the euro. That would really hold the Commission's feet to the fire. First it would create great uncertainty in the euro, probably pushing up borrowing costs for the weaker members. (Poor old Greece, et al). Secondly, it would create a viable method for Italy to exit the euro at a time of its own choosing, creating further uncertainty.

I doubt that the incoming government will overlook the leverage that even the threat of a parallel currency will give them over the European commission.

Wordsmith
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Its all he’s got , it’s a trade thread he knows eff all about trade, truxx ( and others including yours truthfully) do , therefore he cannot contribute anything meaningful so resorts to random crap he harvests off the internet .
Sad really.
Hooray we’re saved. Rockaway up to no 10: solve the border problem and collect your knighthood to the cheers of a grateful ( and deeply thankful) Brexit audience.

If it was so simple it would have been the first thing taken care of. The Eu have bent over backwards, extending deadlines and allowing the resultant fibs and fudges to save face and move the problem to one side for the moment.

If there are such obvious solutions, how come The PM gave four different answers to four different interested parties.
Surely they’d want this put to bed and buried as a show of UKs much vaunted foreign relations and diplomatic savvy.
Maybe she’ll pull something out of the hat later in the day. I have a suspicion if she manages that it will be a reversal of something else.
 

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