Brexit Phase Two - Trade
- Thread starter Auld-Yin
- Start date
What would make most sense and an orderly withdrawal is to withdraw UK participation in EU schemes as they fall due for renewal (eg CFP in 2020). That gives the UK time to come up with their own policies, legislation and resources to implement them.
For a transition period (let’s say 1-2 years), the UK could leave the EU but remain in the Single Market as a EEA/EFTA
Your correct of course
But UK fishing vessels are currently the 4th largest fishers of the Irish EEZ (and are among those most often found to be the biggest infringers)
For a transition period (let’s say 1-2 years), the UK could leave the EU but remain in the Single Market as a EEA/EFTA
Your correct of course
But UK fishing vessels are currently the 4th largest fishers of the Irish EEZ (and are among those most often found to be the biggest infringers)
You're potentially taking 400,000 tonnes annually out of the system. Which will probably mean forced decommissioning of some of the EU fishing fleet.
Management of fishing capacity - fishing fleet - Fisheries - European Commission
One outcome of Brexit is going to be an increase in the size of the UK fishing fleet and a decrease in the size of the EU's. The decrease is one of the unholy scraps that are going to happen in the EU post-Brexit as member states argue that the cuts should fall on others and not on them.
Wordsmith
Management of fishing capacity - fishing fleet - Fisheries - European Commission
One outcome of Brexit is going to be an increase in the size of the UK fishing fleet and a decrease in the size of the EU's. The decrease is one of the unholy scraps that are going to happen in the EU post-Brexit as member states argue that the cuts should fall on others and not on them.
Wordsmith
The UK left the EU in part because it wanted to put its own interests ahead of those of the EU. You're thinking of the UK acting in the ROI's best interests. Whereas there is no reason for the UK to act maliciously towards the EU, there is no future reason to attempt to protect the ROI's interests within the EU either.
As such, in proceeding on a course now exclusively in the UK's interests, this may indirectly harm the ROI. In order to mitigate that harm, from 2020 onward, you are dependent on a majority of the 27 EU nations acting in a way to help Ireland. Given that the UK was on the wrong end of multiple EU decisions - and that the UK carried more clout inside the EU than the ROI - I suspect the ROI is in for some unhappy times.
Put simply, the UK looked - to some degree - after the ROI's interests while in the EU. After Brexit, we will have far fewer reasons to do that. After 2020, the ROI will be a comparative minnow in the shark infested EU waters without big brother to offer a degree of protection.
Sadly, Brexit is going to have a negative impact on the ROI.
Wordsmith
As such, in proceeding on a course now exclusively in the UK's interests, this may indirectly harm the ROI. In order to mitigate that harm, from 2020 onward, you are dependent on a majority of the 27 EU nations acting in a way to help Ireland. Given that the UK was on the wrong end of multiple EU decisions - and that the UK carried more clout inside the EU than the ROI - I suspect the ROI is in for some unhappy times.
Put simply, the UK looked - to some degree - after the ROI's interests while in the EU. After Brexit, we will have far fewer reasons to do that. After 2020, the ROI will be a comparative minnow in the shark infested EU waters without big brother to offer a degree of protection.
Sadly, Brexit is going to have a negative impact on the ROI.
Wordsmith
As more sane voices in the ROI have been saying for some time, Veradkar needs to stop playing up to Brussels and consider the long term economic reality for Ireland.
Pissing off your big neighbour for a fw crumbs from the Brussels attaboy bowl may not prove to be a great long term strategy for a little Island offshore of a much bigger one.
Now little Leo has rather painted himself into a corner as the big Europeans bezza he has rather burnt his stack of goodwill which would have been handy in the future in his dealings with his ( at present) biggest market next door.
When the Spanish Portuguese and French carve up what’s left of Ireland’s fish stock I’m sure the thought of being good Europeans will be a great comfort to Irish fishermen. I don’t think there will be much sleep lost here over Leo’s predicament though.
When the Spanish Portuguese and French carve up what’s left of Ireland’s fish stock I’m sure the thought of being good Europeans will be a great comfort to Irish fishermen. I don’t think there will be much sleep lost here over Leo’s predicament though.
Yeah right! Still following "Arrsers that are of interest"
But seeing as you ask:
The Transition period wasn't exactly breaking news this week. We knew it was part of the process. Despite what Remainders would have people believe, not everyone who voted to leave the EU thought that there would be an additional 350 million pounds per week for the NHS from the day that Article 50 was signed. Which is why its ridiculous to hear Remainders ask where that money is right now. We're still paying the EU contribution and will be until ... Oh yes the end of the Transition period. It does concern me that the U.K. will be paying in without a vote but that would happen anyway and we still get the rebate until the end of 2020. The EU could spend the two years stitching up the U.K. but that won't auger well for future trade. I suspect that the EU commissions would be happy to cut of their nose to spite their face but not sure that will fly for 27 member states over the next few years.
I'm disappointed about the CFP situation as it's something I'm passionate about. The point of Brexit for me is not exclusively about the economy and I hope that we can take back control of our sovereign waters. Yes our fishing industry is only a small part of GDP but it's massively important to the EU and properly managed and licenced can still benefit the U.K. and the EU.
I didn't believe that anyone could have known exactly what leaving would mean or how the process would work. For Remainders the best source of information was provided by the government of the day at a cost of 9 million quid . .. the vote is binding and we will leave the SM and CU. Finally, it would seem unrealistic to unpick forty years of EU membership within two years, never mind four. The future is uncertain, Brexit or not but, as you ask my opinion, I believe that this is our last, best chance of extricating ourselves from a failing, corrupt, wasteful bureaucracy (and I mean this definition: a system of government in which most of the important decisions are taken by state officials rather than by elected representatives).
So, this may come as surprise to you. I'm going to ask you for your opinion. Can you name five things that you think are bad about the EU? The answer is not four Frenchmen and a garland of garlic.
But seeing as you ask:
The Transition period wasn't exactly breaking news this week. We knew it was part of the process. Despite what Remainders would have people believe, not everyone who voted to leave the EU thought that there would be an additional 350 million pounds per week for the NHS from the day that Article 50 was signed. Which is why its ridiculous to hear Remainders ask where that money is right now. We're still paying the EU contribution and will be until ... Oh yes the end of the Transition period. It does concern me that the U.K. will be paying in without a vote but that would happen anyway and we still get the rebate until the end of 2020. The EU could spend the two years stitching up the U.K. but that won't auger well for future trade. I suspect that the EU commissions would be happy to cut of their nose to spite their face but not sure that will fly for 27 member states over the next few years.
I'm disappointed about the CFP situation as it's something I'm passionate about. The point of Brexit for me is not exclusively about the economy and I hope that we can take back control of our sovereign waters. Yes our fishing industry is only a small part of GDP but it's massively important to the EU and properly managed and licenced can still benefit the U.K. and the EU.
I didn't believe that anyone could have known exactly what leaving would mean or how the process would work. For Remainders the best source of information was provided by the government of the day at a cost of 9 million quid . .. the vote is binding and we will leave the SM and CU. Finally, it would seem unrealistic to unpick forty years of EU membership within two years, never mind four. The future is uncertain, Brexit or not but, as you ask my opinion, I believe that this is our last, best chance of extricating ourselves from a failing, corrupt, wasteful bureaucracy (and I mean this definition: a system of government in which most of the important decisions are taken by state officials rather than by elected representatives).
So, this may come as surprise to you. I'm going to ask you for your opinion. Can you name five things that you think are bad about the EU? The answer is not four Frenchmen and a garland of garlic.
The UK's problems will largely be localised in the year before the end of the transition period and the eighteen months after. After that I would hope the worst of the pain is over.
For the EU it will be a slow burner. Pressure over how to accommodate the smaller fishing catch, the fall in the Eu's budget due to the UK's contribution being removed, mixed willingness to move towards further integration and so on are at least 2 - 3 years in the future for the EU.
As is the spectre of a fully independent UK acting in its own interests and doing things some EU states would love to do and are prohited from doing by EU treaty.
As such, as the UK's problems tail off, I suspect the EU's will begin.
Wordsmith
For the EU it will be a slow burner. Pressure over how to accommodate the smaller fishing catch, the fall in the Eu's budget due to the UK's contribution being removed, mixed willingness to move towards further integration and so on are at least 2 - 3 years in the future for the EU.
As is the spectre of a fully independent UK acting in its own interests and doing things some EU states would love to do and are prohited from doing by EU treaty.
As such, as the UK's problems tail off, I suspect the EU's will begin.
Wordsmith
Ah legitimate reason for HS2 then.
That said spokes man today for the - Fisheries industry "we can't survive another year. " So if they all go under we can definitely blame the EU for the demise of the fisheries here. Not that it will help. There a case for transitional help there. That said the Beeb is noted for it seeking of the most extreme views in support of its case.
That said spokes man today for the - Fisheries industry "we can't survive another year. " So if they all go under we can definitely blame the EU for the demise of the fisheries here. Not that it will help. There a case for transitional help there. That said the Beeb is noted for it seeking of the most extreme views in support of its case.
It is on the list of lines proposed for restoration but I don't know what the process or criteria are for starting the project.
With the current state of the East Coast line from Edinburgh to Aberdeen, it is pretty much a pipedream that anything will move at close to 100mph. Trawler speed is closer to the reality. It is currently between 2:40 and 2:55 from Aberdeen to Edinburgh by passenger train.
With the current state of the East Coast line from Edinburgh to Aberdeen, it is pretty much a pipedream that anything will move at close to 100mph. Trawler speed is closer to the reality. It is currently between 2:40 and 2:55 from Aberdeen to Edinburgh by passenger train.
This is where the reality of Brexit will start to come home to politicians. Pretty soon May is going to have assign responsibility to someone to come up with a paper on the future of the UK fishing industry, while Wee Nippy is going to have to do the same for Scotland. And that paper is going to have to cover a wide range of options including:
MP's are going to become steadily more accountable to the British electorate for the decisions they take.
Wordsmith
- What tonnage can be extracted from the North sea while allowing stocks to recover?
- How should the British fishing fleet be structured to exploit that?
- How does the fish get to market given that the quantity caught will be greater than consumed in the UK?
- What infrastructure is required? Railway lines? Cold storage? Port facilities?
- What fishery protection measures are required? What ships? What aircraft?
- What legislation is required now we can bin the EU's in the near future?
- Etc, etc.
MP's are going to become steadily more accountable to the British electorate for the decisions they take.
Wordsmith
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