Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Baglock

On ROPS
On ROPs
They're mad.
To imagine that we'll have to pay to trade with an outfit that we have a trade deficit with.
We've been shafted since 1975, these remain voters are complicit in the notion that we should continue. Belters, every thick one of them.
We've already agreed to pay till 2064.

That's just the divorce bill.

Access will cost more in perpetuity.

The UK is desperate
 
The INS is going to find itself having to be a tad more proactive than its been of late after 2020.
You've already got problems with the Spanish, its going to get a lot worse.
21 months from March 2018 makes the end of the transition period Dec 2020 by my calculations.

Given that you'll have rapacious French and Spanish trawlers shut out from UK waters exploiting ROI waters from Jan 2021 onwards, enjoy having your waters over-exploited and turned into a marine desert.

(Said trawlers are going to lose about 400,000 tonnes of catch. They'll try and make that up from other EU waters, of which the ROI's form a significant part).

Wordsmith
What would make most sense and an orderly withdrawal is to withdraw UK participation in EU schemes as they fall due for renewal (eg CFP in 2020). That gives the UK time to come up with their own policies, legislation and resources to implement them.

For a transition period (let’s say 1-2 years), the UK could leave the EU but remain in the Single Market as a EEA/EFTA
UK's withdrawal from the CFP is going to be a disaster for the Irish fishing fleet unless they get an agreement with us.

Whats that?

Veradker might find his best butties in Brussels might not let him save the Irish fishing fleet by doing a deal with us splitters?
Your correct of course

But UK fishing vessels are currently the 4th largest fishers of the Irish EEZ (and are among those most often found to be the biggest infringers)
 
What would make most sense and an orderly withdrawal is to withdraw UK participation in EU schemes as they fall due for renewal (eg CFP in 2020). That gives the UK time to come up with their own policies, legislation and resources to implement them.

For a transition period (let’s say 1-2 years), the UK could leave the EU but remain in the Single Market as a EEA/EFTA


Your correct of course

But UK fishing vessels are currently the 4th largest fishers of the Irish EEZ (and are among those most often found to be the biggest infringers)
"You're"
I don't know why you're getting your panties in a bunch. You're Irish, ergo, our self determination has nothing to do with you and here's the crusher.....you can't do anything about it.
 
Nah! Why would Ireland EU friends want to snaffle its very lucrative fish export market! Its the EU, they are all for one and one for all and all!
You're potentially taking 400,000 tonnes annually out of the system. Which will probably mean forced decommissioning of some of the EU fishing fleet.

Management of fishing capacity - fishing fleet - Fisheries - European Commission
EU countries are obliged to report annually on this balance, using the guidelines prepared by the European Commission. For fleet segments with overcapacity the member state has to take measures under an action plan, to achieve the balance, for instance through publicly funded decommissioning of vessels. When a member state fails to report or does not implement the action plan, this may lead to proportionate suspension or interruption of the relevant EU funding.
One outcome of Brexit is going to be an increase in the size of the UK fishing fleet and a decrease in the size of the EU's. The decrease is one of the unholy scraps that are going to happen in the EU post-Brexit as member states argue that the cuts should fall on others and not on them.

Wordsmith
 
What would make most sense and an orderly withdrawal is to withdraw UK participation in EU schemes as they fall due for renewal (eg CFP in 2020). That gives the UK time to come up with their own policies, legislation and resources to implement them.
The UK left the EU in part because it wanted to put its own interests ahead of those of the EU. You're thinking of the UK acting in the ROI's best interests. Whereas there is no reason for the UK to act maliciously towards the EU, there is no future reason to attempt to protect the ROI's interests within the EU either.

As such, in proceeding on a course now exclusively in the UK's interests, this may indirectly harm the ROI. In order to mitigate that harm, from 2020 onward, you are dependent on a majority of the 27 EU nations acting in a way to help Ireland. Given that the UK was on the wrong end of multiple EU decisions - and that the UK carried more clout inside the EU than the ROI - I suspect the ROI is in for some unhappy times.

Put simply, the UK looked - to some degree - after the ROI's interests while in the EU. After Brexit, we will have far fewer reasons to do that. After 2020, the ROI will be a comparative minnow in the shark infested EU waters without big brother to offer a degree of protection.

Sadly, Brexit is going to have a negative impact on the ROI.

Wordsmith
 
The UK left the EU in part because it wanted to put its own interests ahead of those of the EU. You're thinking of the UK acting in the ROI's best interests. Whereas there is no reason for the UK to act maliciously towards the EU, there is no future reason to attempt to protect the ROI's interests within the EU either.

As such, in proceeding on a course now exclusively in the UK's interests, this may indirectly harm the ROI. In order to mitigate that harm, from 2020 onward, you are dependent on a majority of the 27 EU nations acting in a way to help Ireland. Given that the UK was on the wrong end of multiple EU decisions - and that the UK carried more clout inside the EU than the ROI - I suspect the ROI is in for some unhappy times.

Put simply, the UK looked - to some degree - after the ROI's interests while in the EU. After Brexit, we will have far fewer reasons to do that. After 2020, the ROI will be a comparative minnow in the shark infested EU waters without big brother to offer a degree of protection.

Sadly, Brexit is going to have a negative impact on the ROI.

Wordsmith

As more sane voices in the ROI have been saying for some time, Veradkar needs to stop playing up to Brussels and consider the long term economic reality for Ireland.
Pissing off your big neighbour for a fw crumbs from the Brussels attaboy bowl may not prove to be a great long term strategy for a little Island offshore of a much bigger one.
 
"You're"
I don't know why you're getting your panties in a bunch. You're Irish, ergo, our self determination has nothing to do with you and here's the crusher.....you can't do anything about it.
Now little Leo has rather painted himself into a corner as the big Europeans bezza he has rather burnt his stack of goodwill which would have been handy in the future in his dealings with his ( at present) biggest market next door.
When the Spanish Portuguese and French carve up what’s left of Ireland’s fish stock I’m sure the thought of being good Europeans will be a great comfort to Irish fishermen. I don’t think there will be much sleep lost here over Leo’s predicament though.
 
Any input on the transition period announced today?

Was just interested in your opinion, really Bob
Yeah right! Still following "Arrsers that are of interest"

But seeing as you ask:

The Transition period wasn't exactly breaking news this week. We knew it was part of the process. Despite what Remainders would have people believe, not everyone who voted to leave the EU thought that there would be an additional 350 million pounds per week for the NHS from the day that Article 50 was signed. Which is why its ridiculous to hear Remainders ask where that money is right now. We're still paying the EU contribution and will be until ... Oh yes the end of the Transition period. It does concern me that the U.K. will be paying in without a vote but that would happen anyway and we still get the rebate until the end of 2020. The EU could spend the two years stitching up the U.K. but that won't auger well for future trade. I suspect that the EU commissions would be happy to cut of their nose to spite their face but not sure that will fly for 27 member states over the next few years.

I'm disappointed about the CFP situation as it's something I'm passionate about. The point of Brexit for me is not exclusively about the economy and I hope that we can take back control of our sovereign waters. Yes our fishing industry is only a small part of GDP but it's massively important to the EU and properly managed and licenced can still benefit the U.K. and the EU.

I didn't believe that anyone could have known exactly what leaving would mean or how the process would work. For Remainders the best source of information was provided by the government of the day at a cost of 9 million quid . .. the vote is binding and we will leave the SM and CU. Finally, it would seem unrealistic to unpick forty years of EU membership within two years, never mind four. The future is uncertain, Brexit or not but, as you ask my opinion, I believe that this is our last, best chance of extricating ourselves from a failing, corrupt, wasteful bureaucracy (and I mean this definition: a system of government in which most of the important decisions are taken by state officials rather than by elected representatives).

So, this may come as surprise to you. I'm going to ask you for your opinion. Can you name five things that you think are bad about the EU? The answer is not four Frenchmen and a garland of garlic.
 
Now little Leo has rather painted himself into a corner as the big Europeans bezza he has rather burnt his stack of goodwill which would have been handy in the future in his dealings with his ( at present) biggest market next door.
When the Spanish Portuguese and French carve up what’s left of Ireland’s fish stock I’m sure the thought of being good Europeans will be a great comfort to Irish fishermen. I don’t think there will be much sleep lost here over Leo’s predicament though.
The UK's problems will largely be localised in the year before the end of the transition period and the eighteen months after. After that I would hope the worst of the pain is over.

For the EU it will be a slow burner. Pressure over how to accommodate the smaller fishing catch, the fall in the Eu's budget due to the UK's contribution being removed, mixed willingness to move towards further integration and so on are at least 2 - 3 years in the future for the EU.

As is the spectre of a fully independent UK acting in its own interests and doing things some EU states would love to do and are prohited from doing by EU treaty.

As such, as the UK's problems tail off, I suspect the EU's will begin.

Wordsmith
 

Baglock

On ROPS
On ROPs
Yeah right! Still following "Arrsers that are of interest"

But seeing as you ask:

The Transition period wasn't exactly breaking news this week. We knew it was part of the process. Despite what Remainders would have people believe, not everyone who voted to leave the EU thought that there would be an additional 350 million pounds per week for the NHS from the day that Article 50 was signed. Which is why its ridiculous to hear Remainders ask where that money is right now. We're still paying the EU contribution and will be until ... Oh yes the end of the Transition period. It does concern me that the U.K. will be paying in without a vote but that would happen anyway and we still get the rebate until the end of 2020. The EU could spend the two years stitching up the U.K. but that won't auger well for future trade. I suspect that the EU commissions would be happy to cut of their nose to spite their face but not sure that will fly for 27 member states over the next few years.

I'm disappointed about the CFP situation as it's something I'm passionate about. The point of Brexit for me is not exclusively about the economy and I hope that we can take back control of our sovereign waters. Yes our fishing industry is only a small part of GDP but it's massively important to the EU and properly managed and licenced can still benefit the U.K. and the EU.

I didn't believe that anyone could have known exactly what leaving would mean or how the process would work. For Remainders the best source of information was provided by the government of the day at a cost of 9 million quid . .. the vote is binding and we will leave the SM and CU. Finally, it would seem unrealistic to unpick forty years of EU membership within two years, never mind four. The future is uncertain, Brexit or not but, as you ask my opinion, I believe that this is our last, best chance of extricating ourselves from a failing, corrupt, wasteful bureaucracy (and I mean this definition: a system of government in which most of the important decisions are taken by state officials rather than by elected representatives).

So, this may come as surprise to you. I'm going to ask you for your opinion. Can you name five things that you think are bad about the EU? The answer is not four Frenchmen and a garland of garlic.
Thanks for your thoughts Bob.

The most irritating thing about the EU for me is it trying to exert it's sphere of influence ever eastwards, since you ask.

Probably led to the ongoing mess in the Ukraine.

I've never said that it is perfect. I'm strongly convinced we are worse off out though
 
If the government really thought strategically, they'd invest in some refrigerated trains. Land your catch at northern Scottish ports, load onto refrigerated train and have it - via euro tunnel - in continental markets while the EU trawlers are still days away from port.
Ah legitimate reason for HS2 then.

That said spokes man today for the - Fisheries industry "we can't survive another year. " So if they all go under we can definitely blame the EU for the demise of the fisheries here. Not that it will help. There a case for transitional help there. That said the Beeb is noted for it seeking of the most extreme views in support of its case.
 
But there was a line.

Formartine and Buchan Railway - Wikipedia

Time for Wee Nippy and May to consider restoring it. The tonnage set to be landed at Peterhead may well double and, as discussed earlier, there may be a considerable commercial advantage to moving fish from Peterhead to the continent at close to 100 mph compared to the 15 mph of an EU trawler.

A lot of the track bed will still be there, so it's not going to be as expensive as an entirely new line.

Wordsmith
It is on the list of lines proposed for restoration but I don't know what the process or criteria are for starting the project.

With the current state of the East Coast line from Edinburgh to Aberdeen, it is pretty much a pipedream that anything will move at close to 100mph. Trawler speed is closer to the reality. It is currently between 2:40 and 2:55 from Aberdeen to Edinburgh by passenger train.
 
It is on the list of lines proposed for restoration but I don't know what the process or criteria are for starting the project.

With the current state of the East Coast line from Edinburgh to Aberdeen, it is pretty much a pipedream that anything will move at close to 100mph. Trawler speed is closer to the reality. It is currently between 2:40 and 2:55 from Aberdeen to Edinburgh by passenger train.
This is where the reality of Brexit will start to come home to politicians. Pretty soon May is going to have assign responsibility to someone to come up with a paper on the future of the UK fishing industry, while Wee Nippy is going to have to do the same for Scotland. And that paper is going to have to cover a wide range of options including:
  • What tonnage can be extracted from the North sea while allowing stocks to recover?
  • How should the British fishing fleet be structured to exploit that?
  • How does the fish get to market given that the quantity caught will be greater than consumed in the UK?
  • What infrastructure is required? Railway lines? Cold storage? Port facilities?
  • What fishery protection measures are required? What ships? What aircraft?
  • What legislation is required now we can bin the EU's in the near future?
  • Etc, etc.
Someone is going to have to come up with a plan and be accountable for it; not say "decisions are being taken in conjunction with Brussels".

MP's are going to become steadily more accountable to the British electorate for the decisions they take.

Wordsmith
 

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