Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Baglock

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Wordsmith didn't say that at all.

What Wordsworth said was that the process of executing change was best executed over a decade to avoid unnecessarily ruffling feathers in Brussels and to avoid too rapid change impacting on the UK economy. After a decade of slow but progressive change, I would expect that there will be substantial divergences between the EU and the UK.

If you are going to quote me, then please quote the pertinent post. Then everyone reading the post will know what I actually said rather than what you think I said.

Wordsmith
I think you are lying.

In other news,

As predicted the government has caved
in to virtually every EU demand in order to secure a transition period.
 
Here's an interesting straw in the wind.

Conservative Party nearly twice the size originally thought, new figures show
The Conservative Party is nearly double the size previously claimed, as the first official figures published in five years show that membership is now at 124,000. Brandon Lewis, the Conservative Party Chairman, said that the party membership had grown by 6,000 since Mrs May’s breakthrough Brexit deal in December, which paved the way for a two year transition period and talks on a future trade agreement.

The party is now only marginally smaller than the 130,000 registered during David Cameron’s premiership, with Mr Lewis indicating that he expected the figure to rise further in the coming months.
A lot of 'natural' Tories defected to UKIP over the years because they didn't feel a pro-EU Tory party represented them. The fact they're returning to the fold, suggests that they feel Brexit is mission accomplished and they're at home being involved with the Tory party again

A relatively smooth Brexit should result in a boost to the Tory's electoral popularity. Which they can further boost by being very selective in the EU laws they repeal in the run-up to the next GE. I suspect their strategy will be to repeal those most unpopular but least controversial, thus further boosting their electoral position.

St Vince of Cable will then have a major problem: do the Limp Democrats campaign to rejoin the EU? He can make his activists or the electorate happy, but not both.

St Jeremy of Corbyn will have a similar problem - at present he's been able to oppose May's suggestions without really having a policy of his own. After we're out of the EU, he's going to have to come up with one*.

Wordsmith

* Based on recent utterances, that'll probably be to negotiate a free trade agreement with Putin allowing free import of nerve gas into the UK.
 
1. Germany is going to resist any change that will impact on its lucrative export led economy.
I don't see why it should. On the other hand I see less resistance to a centralized budget for the Eurozone. The questions at the moment do not lie with Germany but with Macron changing the way the E U works and it sounds very much like there will be much wailing an gnashing of teeth, particularly from the French Unions. There's a paradox here because Labour want the Protections of the EU just as France tries to remove them. I 'm currently amused by those who think staying in the EU would force Putin's hand at the moment when it's as clear as a pike staff that EUFP would be a fudge , It's British FP in the driving seat and membership of Nato.
 
* Based on recent utterances, that'll probably be to negotiate a free trade agreement with Putin allowing free import of nerve gas into the UK.
.On that basis, I hardly think a trade agreement matters, there's no one to stop him doing so any way. Whoever were to find it on the off chance would probably get a knighthood.
 
I don't see why it should. On the other hand I see less resistance to a centralized budget for the Eurozone. The questions at the moment do not lie with Germany but with Macron changing the way the EU works...
You're having a giraffe....

Macron’s eurozone ideas hit snag at EU summit
Emmanuel Macron’s grand ideas for a comprehensive eurozone reform suffered a setback on Friday when the monetary union’s leaders failed to endorse his vision and only agreed on a progressive, long-term approach.
The French president and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has always been keen to appear to support her counterpart’s broad ideas in principle while remaining vague on specifics, tried to put on a brave face during a joint media conference at the end of two days of meetings, saying they “want” to reach a common position on how to improve the eurozone by next spring.
No less than eight eurozone countries said "no f*cking way". Eurozone reform is dead in the water at present.

(And that's before the fun and games when an Italian government starts to manipulate the eurozone to suit Italian interests).

Wordsmith
 

skid2

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what you really mean that had remain won-it would have been purely academic. And why would the sigh of relief have been socially? Economically I can understand.......but socially?

Oh Mods is there something that can be done for Baglock- therapy or some such? he contributes nothing of any substance. I wouldn't normally ask. Unfortunately ignore doesn't block buttons
I know you don’t get out much, but Brexit has been incredibly divisive and caused more trouble than it deserves to.
Not so much here, it’s usually espoused by those already widely regarded as being terminally one sided, sectarian or stupid.
High minded and politically literate, not so much, but I’m sure I’ll be surprised before long.

I’ve just been invited for lunch and a pint with spanish (falangist) nationalist who is also pro PIRA and the armed struggle. If that isn’t a walking description of cognitive dissonance I don’t know what is.

All I have to do is find the mural of PIRA espousing support for ETA and watch him explode
 
You're having a giraffe....

Macron’s eurozone ideas hit snag at EU summit


No less than eight eurozone countries said "no f*cking way". Eurozone reform is dead in the water at present.

(And that's before the fun and games when an Italian government starts to manipulate the eurozone to suit Italian interests).

Wordsmith
well possibly, but just remember who's running the show- and it can always be optional-remember two speed Europe?? Besides the point about the Euro is they all all have to comply with the ECB strategy, which more or less ties their hands. But nor should we mix that up with objections toe EU interference in domestic legislation or migration issues.
 
I know you don’t get out much, but Brexit has been incredibly divisive and caused more trouble than it deserves to.
Not so much here, it’s usually espoused by those already widely regarded as being terminally one sided, sectarian or stupid.
High minded and politically literate, not so much, but I’m sure I’ll be surprised before long.

I’ve just been invited for lunch and a pint with spanish (falangist) nationalist who is also pro PIRA and the armed struggle. If that isn’t a walking description of cognitive dissonance I don’t know what is.

All I have to do is find the mural of PIRA espousing support for ETA and watch him explode
I get out more than you think and the general consensus is people can't wait to get out. But I've said before that people tend to be very Parochial. Only today a local shop keeper who is twenty years younger than me and female posited "That the only way for Britain is to bring back manufacturing to the UK"and she can't wait to be out. Bear in mind that those in their fifties with barely remember joining the EEC. Now places near me have lost heavily in the fishing industry but they're well into Windpower ,Oil and Gas and they are all optimistic about out. They see Europe without the EU as an opportunity.
 

Auld-Yin

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Reference Blair, I fully concur.

Reference Clegg, a frothing bluffer.
Blair - wouldn't trust him one iota. Everything he does is weighed on what's in it for him. A more weasely character it would be hard to find.

Clegg is passionate about the EU and always has been. I respect that and say he is well entitled to his view, provided it is not an attempt to overturn the legitimate referendum result. IMO he would be a good ambassador from the Court of St James to the EU once we are out.
 
well possibly, but just remember who's running the show- and it can always be optional-remember two speed Europe?? Besides the point about the Euro is they all all have to comply with the ECB strategy, which more or less ties their hands. But nor should we mix that up with objections to EU interference in domestic legislation or migration issues.
I think you have that a little wrong.

The suggestion of a two speed Europe was advocated by the UK and always rejected by the Franco-German alliance that drives the EU. A two speed Europe will remove the incentive for many countries to move towards a United States of Europe, which is why they opposed it.

The ECB is the servant of the eurozone (and much influenced by Germany). It can set interest rates, use QE and so on, but it doesn't set eurozone policy. Eurozone policy is set by the requirements of the Maastricht Treaty which set up the requirements for the eurozone.

One of the shortcomings of that treaty was that it assumed every country in the eurozone would work towards the convergence criteria. But most countries ignored them: Germany runs a budget surplus well outside the criteria, France a deficit well above that allowed and Italy is about to bend the rules out of shape for its own advantage.

A club where most members don't obey the rules is invariably going to end up in trouble.

Wordsmith
 

skid2

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I get out more than you think and the general consensus is people can't wait to get out. But I've said before that people tend to be very Parochial. Only today a local shop keeper who is twenty years younger than me and female posited "That the only way for Britain is to bring back manufacturing to the UK"and she can't wait to be out. Bear in mind that those in their fifties with barely remember joining the EEC. Now places near me have lost heavily in the fishing industry but they're well into Windpower ,Oil and Gas and they are all optimistic about out. They see Europe without the EU as an opportunity.

Thats what we’re going to do. Bring back manufacturing industry. (That wouldnt be the stuff which was privatised, sold, asset stripped and demolished) you do know why they called it ‘the Black Country‘ and it wasn’t down to the colour of the next door neighbour.

Those who lost out in the fishing industry, tough. That’ll continue to go. Unless you like
weird fish.

Wind power, well we aren’t going to run out of wind. But oil and gas we had decades of that. What did we do with it, we subsidised the welfare state to look after those dumped by lost industries. It’s declining too, unless we have new cost effective methods of extracting it.
Which wouldn’t surprise me at all. Look at what the Norwegians did with their oil and gas. And look what we could have done with it.
 

skid2

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Basically no hard Brexit nor a late night in Wetherspoons, next March then, just another 21 months after that, still aligning and transitioning. I do hope woodsmiths wrong about the imminent collapse of the Euro and the Eu.
The way things are going we may well be still in there, still, unless we bugger up the pound again it’ll be somewhere cheap for holidays.
 
Are you reading them same news as the real world?
I really don't get why you're trying to explain away the failure of the government to prepare for Brexit and the resultant climbdown on every single matter of any import that has resulted. The deal they are looking to sign will give us Brexit in name only. I don't think that's what people who voted to leave were after, but clearly you disagree. But why ?
 
And all it took was for the UK to give them everything they asked for. Amazing eh?
I await with interest the Tele and Express spin on this. I expect the trade deals bit to be in bold with exclamation marks and Fox to deliver as much as he already has....These DM readers aren't in the least bit chuffed.
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I really don't get why you're trying to explain away the failure of the government to prepare for Brexit and the resultant climbdown on every single matter of any import that has resulted. The deal they are looking to sign will give us Brexit in name only. I don't think that's what people who voted to leave were after, but clearly you disagree. But why ?

What happened to the claims that the UK wouldn't be able to do trade deals until after BREXIT coz Barnier said so?
 

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