Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Best case scenario for the EU is naked self interest will see the well off northern Euros throw the piigs and weak eastern states under a passing financial short bus and the form an EU Mk2
Ain't going to happen for a multitude of reasons. I'll discuss just two.

1. Germany is going to resist any change that will impact on its lucrative export led economy. If the Euro North goes up by 10% - 15% in value (a likely scenario) its exports will fall by a half.

2. Currency speculators will have a field day. Euro North is going to go up in value and Euro South is going to fall in value. Fortunes will be made by the George Soros's of this world, while the economies of all the eurozone countries suffer major economic turbulence.

The only solution for the euro is a 'United States of Europe' and central control of the economies of the member states. For reasons that have been exhaustively discussed, that's a political impossibility.

All the member states of the euro can do is sit like a rabbit in the headlights and wait for the next recession to come along. The timing of the recession can't be predicted, but the effect can - significantly greater strain on the euro thn in the Lehman crash.

Wordsmith
 

Auld-Yin

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what you really mean that had remain won-it would have been purely academic. And why would the sigh of relief have been socially? Economically I can understand.......but socially?

Oh Mods is there something that can be done for Baglock- therapy or some such? he contributes nothing of any substance. I wouldn't normally ask. Unfortunately ignore doesn't block buttons
You need to be cautious about which Mods you contact as at least two of them have caught "the Baggie" ! :eek:
 
Major, Blair, Clegg et al have all made it perfectly clear of the desire of a 2nd referendum as they can’t handle the result, so much so for making speeches to this affect.
One wouldn't mind but Blair and Clegg haven't been elected. Blair has as much credibility as a flea and Clegg is obviously going through his wilderness years
I for one maybe expect further (reminder) speeches around October time, and again just prior to March 2019.

Along with of course, another legal challenge too.


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Meanwhile, the EU hasn't collapsed.

 
I for one maybe expect further (reminder) speeches around October time, and again just prior to March 2019.
I'm sure one of the motives for Blair is that his interventions keep his name in the headlines, hence assisting his 'consultancy' business.

The Cleggster has always being an ardent European and thus I consider less opportunistic than Blair - at least he's acting on what's always been his core beliefs.

Wordsmith
 
Two interventions from the Moggster.

MPs are trying to stop Brexit with partisan report, says Jacob Rees-Mogg
The Commons committee scrutinising Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union is engulfed in a row over a new report that a leading Conservative member claimed was intended to “negate the referendum result” and damage the Government’s negotiating position amid crucial talks in Brussels.
Britain risks becoming a 'joke nation' if it cannot sign trade deals during transition, Jacob Rees-Mogg warns
Britain risks becoming a "joke nation" if it cannot formally sign trade deals in the 20 month transition period after the UK leaves the European Union, the most senior Eurosceptic Tory backbencher has warned. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory MP who leads the European Research Group, warns Theresa May that she cannot not accept any deal that leaves the UK as a "subservient state”.
He's both burnishing his leadership credentials and holding May's feet to the fire over Brexit. As he speaks for about 60 MP's a head of the European Research Group,May probably can't get her proposals through parliament without JRM's support. At the same time, his opposition is being done through the system and as such, he won't be regarded by the bulk of the Tory MP's as being disloyal to the current leadership.

Finally, he's coming across as a convition politician, something all too much of a rarity these days.

Wordsmith
 
Oh goodie. Another unnamed source by the guardian.

It wasn't too long ago that you were emphasise the unimportance of fisheries to the economy.
I think you'll find that you're making shit up. Please link to the post where I'm emphasising the unimportance of fisheries. Having said that, if you actually bothered read the odd link you might get somewhere:

Although fishing is only 0.05% of UK GDP, it has huge emotional significance. The common fisheries policy has led to the laying up of most of the British fishing fleet over the past 40 years. Gove has blamed the CFP for destroying his father’s fish processing firm.

Sources close to the cabinet minister accept that the issue cannot be allowed to derail the deal on transition, which is part of the withdrawal agreement due to be signed off at the end of the week. Ministers recognise the need for certainty for business and the economy.


Sources close......hhhmmmmmmm.......I wonder who that could be....
 
Ain't going to happen for a multitude of reasons. I'll discuss just two.

1. Germany is going to resist any change that will impact on its lucrative export led economy. If the Euro North goes up by 10% - 15% in value (a likely scenario) its exports will fall by a half.

2. Currency speculators will have a field day. Euro North is going to go up in value and Euro South is going to fall in value. Fortunes will be made by the George Soros's of this world, while the economies of all the eurozone countries suffer major economic turbulence.

The only solution for the euro is a 'United States of Europe' and central control of the economies of the member states. For reasons that have been exhaustively discussed, that's a political impossibility.

All the member states of the euro can do is sit like a rabbit in the headlights and wait for the next recession to come along. The timing of the recession can't be predicted, but the effect can - significantly greater strain on the euro thn in the Lehman crash.

Wordsmith

Like I aid, its a 'best case' but as you note, a political impossibility now.

Its going to be an interesting few days when the wheels come off.
 
Like I aid, its a 'best case' but as you note, a political impossibility now.

Its going to be an interesting few days when the wheels come off.
Unfortunately not.

From memory, 8% of the UK's GDP is down to exports of goods and services, 50% of that going to the EU - i.e. 4% of GDP. If - as expected - the eurozone fails, we could lose the equivalent of 1% of 'export 'GDP on top of the fall in domestic GDP. Nothing to smile about

However, there are some pluses from Brexit.

1) We can take decisions solely based on what's best for the UK, without taking European problems into account.

2) We can put a block in economic migration from the EU. Sure as eggs is eggs, the UK's economy will be in better shape than that of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Poland and so on. Were we still an EU member, I would expect a flood of migrants from those countries trying to take advantage of the UK's more generous benefits system. As such, we'll be able to get our unemployed back to work faster than if we get lumbered with another million EU migrants.

3) I expect Sterling to be a 'safe haven' for investors during a future recession, driving our borrowing costs down while we weather it. I expect the reverse for the EU.

As discussed before, the eurozone can be expected to have major problems in the next recession. These will include one or more 'too big to fail' countries such as France, Spain or Italy getting into the deep economic mire. That Greece will fail and default on its debt is a given.

At the least I expect the ECB to unleash a blizzard of QE. That will result in major inflation* which in turn will further impact on the EU's competitiveness with the rest of the world - which has already been in decline for years. At worst, they'll end up with a totally broke euro. For which there are no obvious fixes.

Wordsmith

* Germany can be expected to strongly oppose the bulk of the QE for this very reason.
 
Two interventions from the Moggster.

MPs are trying to stop Brexit with partisan report, says Jacob Rees-Mogg


Britain risks becoming a 'joke nation' if it cannot sign trade deals during transition, Jacob Rees-Mogg warns


He's both burnishing his leadership credentials and holding May's feet to the fire over Brexit. As he speaks for about 60 MP's a head of the European Research Group,May probably can't get her proposals through parliament without JRM's support. At the same time, his opposition is being done through the system and as such, he won't be regarded by the bulk of the Tory MP's as being disloyal to the current leadership.

Finally, he's coming across as a convition politician, something all too much of a rarity these days.

Wordsmith
A conviction politician? Hahahahahaha...

Rees-Mogg: A Familiar Story
 

Auld-Yin

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We have yet to see what the agreement actually is and these reports are the normal pre-screening argy-bargy. The Council of Europe meets later this week so we are getting the pre-meeting sabre rattling from both sides.
 

skid2

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Wordsmith didn't say that at all.

What Wordsworth said was that the process of executing change was best executed over a decade to avoid unnecessarily ruffling feathers in Brussels and to avoid too rapid change impacting on the UK economy. After a decade of slow but progressive change, I would expect that there will be substantial divergences between the EU and the UK.

If you are going to quote me, then please quote the pertinent post. Then everyone reading the post will know what I actually said rather than what you think I said.

Wordsmith
Wordsmith speak of himself in the third person and with forked tongue. Now it’s getting silly. He’s tried every permutation of a brexit outcome except it being successful.
 
I'm sure one of the motives for Blair is that his interventions keep his name in the headlines, hence assisting his 'consultancy' business.

The Cleggster has always being an ardent European and thus I consider less opportunistic than Blair - at least he's acting on what's always been his core beliefs.

Wordsmith
Reference Blair, I fully concur.

Reference Clegg, a frothing bluffer.
 
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