Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I don't know about youse, but the things that disturbs me most about the so-called "negotitations" with the EU is that the UK politicians in general seem far more (if not exclusively) interested in scoring cheap points against the alleged "political oppositon" than seriously putting their minds to thrashing out any sort of positive agreement that's of the utmost importance to the country's future.
The situation is far more complex than that - including May trying to balance the demands of the different wings of her party and avoiding one wing or another becoming annoyed enough to mount a leadership challenge when the Brexit negotiations are over.

In addition Junker - when he could drag himself away from his drinks cabinet, appointed Barnier as his chief negotiator. Barnier is one of the chief advocates of a 'United States of Europe', actively hostile to the UK leaving and has clearly been told to wind in his neck a few times for coming up with things like the 'punishment clause' whereby the EU could unilaterally fine the UK during the transition period.

A more reasonable chef negotiator would have led to faster agreement on what needed to be done.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
It's because the EU economy is growing rapidly, sterling is worth less (as a result of your vote) and they don't feel especially welcome (also as a result of your vote).
As I've pointed out before (with the appropriate links), the EU is growing, but less rapidly than the rest of the world. As such, its share of world trade has been shrinking steadily for years.

Had the EU not imposed swinging import tariffs on products where it is not competitive in the world market, imports into the EU would have increased and EU companies would have to close as a consequence.

Import tariffs effectively camouflage the fact that the EU's increased taxes and burdensome regulations are slowly destroying a lot of EU manufacturing - with jobs exported to places like Chine, India and south Korea. But they can't stop the problem - just delay its impact.

So the EU is becoming ever less relevant to the world economy. In 50 years time, at the present rate of decline, it will have become an economic backwater.

Wordsmith
 
The situation is far more complex than that - including May trying to balance the demands of the different wings of her party and avoiding one wing or another becoming annoyed enough to mount a leadership challenge when the Brexit negotiations are over.

In addition Junker - when he could drag himself away from his drinks cabinet, appointed Barnier as his chief negotiator. Barnier is one of the chief advocates of a 'United States of Europe', actively hostile to the UK leaving and has clearly been told to wind in his neck a few times for coming up with things like the 'punishment clause' whereby the EU could unilaterally fine the UK during the transition period.

A more reasonable chef negotiator would have led to faster agreement on what needed to be done.

Wordsmith
A fine bit of selective fibbing and general making shit up there. We appreciate your efforts to keep the discussion adult and relevant.

Apparently DD could drink Junker and his mate Farage under the table anytime. And his dad's bigger than theirs. A more sober chief negotiator would have stopped bluffing ages ago.
 
As I've pointed out before (with the appropriate links), the EU is growing, but less rapidly than the rest of the world. As such, its share of world trade has been shrinking steadily for years.

Had the EU not imposed swinging import tariffs on products where it is not competitive in the world market, imports into the EU would have increased and EU companies would have to close as a consequence.

Import tariffs effectively camouflage the fact that the EU's increased taxes and burdensome regulations are slowly destroying a lot of EU manufacturing - with jobs exported to places like Chine, India and south Korea. But they can't stop the problem - just delay its impact.

So the EU is becoming ever less relevant to the world economy. In 50 years time, at the present rate of decline, it will have become an economic backwater.

Wordsmith
We're growing less rapidly than the EU. It will remain our largest trading partner for decades. The rest is fairly pish. China, India and S Korea also do the tariff thing, which is why the EU looks to negotiate free trade deals with them.

Jobs are exported because them there furriners have much lower standards of living and it's all cheaper, when their economies pick up they're not as attractive. S America and Africa next eh?
 
As I've pointed out before (with the appropriate links), the EU is growing, but less rapidly than the rest of the world. As such, its share of world trade has been shrinking steadily for years.

Had the EU not imposed swinging import tariffs on products where it is not competitive in the world market, imports into the EU would have increased and EU companies would have to close as a consequence.

Import tariffs effectively camouflage the fact that the EU's increased taxes and burdensome regulations are slowly destroying a lot of EU manufacturing - with jobs exported to places like Chine, India and south Korea. But they can't stop the problem - just delay its impact.

So the EU is becoming ever less relevant to the world economy. In 50 years time, at the present rate of decline, it will have become an economic backwater.

Wordsmith
Ah, 50 years forecast to the future. I thought the EU was going to collapse in 10 years on your previous forecasts? The euro is going to be defunct, the EU will split up and UK will be forging ahead within 10 years, or have you changed it to 50 years now?~
Just look back at what has happened over the last 10 years and tell me you can see what will happen in the next 10.
We had a Labour government with Gordon Brown in charge. We had a huge banking crisis and banks almost went to the wall. The pound crashed big effin' time. 8 years ago we had an election which the Conservatives and LibDems ended up in a coalition (now (I'm sure that couldn't have been forecast).
UK growth was getting higher and UK came out of the crisis better than many other countries. Another election and Tories managed, against all the odds, to scrape a pretty convincing victory from the jaws of defeat.
A referendum was announced. Then the problems with refugees from Syria and all other parts kicked in and we had kids bodies on the coast, thousands dying by drowning or malnutrition waiting so Merkel showed a bit of compassion and let them in. A brain fart of a decision and opinion changed which made a huge difference to the Brexit vote which was for out.
Cameron resigned, Boris, Gove backed off previous claims and Farage went so far as to say the bus was a mistake. The money was a lie, the Turks taking over Europe was a lie.
We have a new PM, another woman. Pound takes a tumble to the lowest since a huge banking crisis but apologists say it's nothing to do with Brexit, it's "finding it's true level" and other such bollox.
May is riding high and will wipe the floor with Corbyn so calls an election which lose her her majority.
Pound falls again, UK now the lowest in growth in the EU and the G7.
And now the government is fighting amongst itself, inflation is the highest in the EU, pound still shitty, growth even shittier.
Now, tell me you could have forecast any of that 10 years ago.. Perhaps your 10 or 50 year forecasts could change somewhat, eh?
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Ah, 50 years forecast to the future. I thought the EU was going to collapse in 10 years on your previous forecasts? The euro is going to be defunct, the EU will split up and UK will be forging ahead within 10 years, or have you changed it to 50 years now?~
Just look back at what has happened over the last 10 years and tell me you can see what will happen in the next 10.
We had a Labour government with Gordon Brown in charge. We had a huge banking crisis and banks almost went to the wall. The pound crashed big effin' time. 8 years ago we had an election which the Conservatives and LibDems ended up in a coalition (now (I'm sure that couldn't have been forecast).
UK growth was getting higher and UK came out of the crisis better than many other countries. Another election and Tories managed, against all the odds, to scrape a pretty convincing victory from the jaws of defeat.
A referendum was announced. Then the problems with refugees from Syria and all other parts kicked in and we had kids bodies on the coast, thousands dying by drowning or malnutrition waiting so Merkel showed a bit of compassion and let them in. A brain fart of a decision and opinion changed which made a huge difference to the Brexit vote which was for out.
Cameron resigned, Boris, Gove backed off previous claims and Farage went so far as to say the bus was a mistake. The money was a lie, the Turks taking over Europe was a lie.
We have a new PM, another woman. Pound takes a tumble to the lowest since a huge banking crisis but apologists say it's nothing to do with Brexit, it's "finding it's true level" and other such bollox.
May is riding high and will wipe the floor with Corbyn so calls an election which lose her her majority.
Pound falls again, UK now the lowest in growth in the EU and the G7.
And now the government is fighting amongst itself, inflation is the highest in the EU, pound still shitty, growth even shittier.
Now, tell me you could have forecast any of that 10 years ago.. Perhaps your 10 or 50 year forecasts could change somewhat, eh?
Hold on, you mean @Wordsmith didnt see our banking crisis coming?

A bit of a heads up there may have helped. Shame on him, delivering these prescient posts on the economic failure of Europe while ignoring the happenings in his own country.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Now, tell me you could have forecast any of that 10 years ago.. Perhaps your 10 or 50 year forecasts could change somewhat, eh?
We can but forecast on the known facts. It's a historical fact that the EU's share of world trade has been in long term decline. And a simple graphical exercise to project that into the future. Not overly scientific, but there's a degree of logic behind it.

If my forecasts are inaccurate, perhaps you should apply a similar standard to those from the remain side forecasting doom and gloom after Brexit.

Wordsmith
 
Just look back at what has happened over the last 10 years
Ten years ago, I made a prediction that we were on a downward trajectory in the EU. I was right, which both surprises me and pisses me off at the same time. I genuinely believed in the EEC when I voted in- despite the lies. Now people are determined to keep me in an institution I deeply loathe and are lying through their teeth yet again. Right for the umpteenth time if a union of 27 countries can only manage collective growth of 1.88% with QE and a fear of a minute interest rate hike IT IS SHIT. It's also never been answered why BNP ( hardly squeaky clean itself) blew the whistle that triggered the crash in the first place especially when it was never harmed by the practice it blew the whistle on. Motive mate!!!. THE Euro, take out at least one competitor. It was comeback for the "Cheese eating surrender Monkeys". Even Brown for all his shortcomings didn't have the Gall to sign the Lisbon treaty initally despite pushing it through Parliament and as has been evidently shown it barely knew it's are from it's elbow. Labour I've shat it.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
We can but forecast on the known facts. It's a historical fact that the EU's share of world trade has been in long term decline. And a simple graphical exercise to project that into the future. Not overly scientific, but there's a degree of logic behind it.

If my forecasts are inaccurate, perhaps you should apply a similar standard to those from the remain side forecasting doom and gloom after Brexit.

Wordsmith
Now you are just being silly. Fancy asking Remainiacs to actually back up statements made by the people they support. Just ain't done. Remember, in their view Brexit= all bad: Remain=all good - which shows their lack of judgement :p
 
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We can but forecast on the known facts. It's a historical fact that the EU's share of world trade has been in long term decline. And a simple graphical exercise to project that into the future. Not overly scientific, but there's a degree of logic behind it.

If my forecasts are inaccurate, perhaps you should apply a similar standard to those from the remain side forecasting doom and gloom after Brexit.

Wordsmith
I've not forecasted what will happen. I think your wishful thinking is getting in the way of reading things.
I've pointed put the pound is low, the lowest since a huge banking crisis, UK growth has gone from the highest in the G7 and the Eurozone to the lowest so hardly forecasting.
And let's go back a little longer with all the forecasting and predictions just before the euro was introduced. The economists and experts, especially the US ones, who predicted the euro would probably start failing after 2 years but would probably not last more than 5 years.
So how's that working out some 18 years later?
If you come back in 10 years time you can tell me how it all panned out, not that I'll not be around to see if your wishful thinking actually takes place.
Economic forecasting only exists to give astrology a good name.
 
Oh, an open ended transition period beckons in the draft UK Negotiation Guidelines. 2 years isn’t long enough.

View attachment 323176
Well, this should be fun. ^^
OK, we'll set it at 25 years, and have a think again every 20 years afterward into perpetuity......
 
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