Brexit Phase Two - Trade

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IMHO there must be shrinkage of the motor industry, this also means that the component market will become more expensive as demand drops. .

See Honda comment that they are now concentrating production in regions with mass market sales opportunities.
If other non EU car makers go the same route, it will be a massive thumbs down for EUtopia
 
Oh Jesus H. No no no. That's just what vested interests want you to think and that includes politicos here. The UK may be full of cheap cars, but the British user has paid through the nose for the privilege-ownership equals tax. Electric vehicles will be cheaper but they'll still damage the environment according to the greens as the copper will have to be mined. Invest in mining!Plain fact is there will have be huge investment in recharge points as the need for Petrol stations diminishes and there's the recycling used which is quite toxic. But Fuel costs wont rise as the need diminishes.
You sound as if you have some knowledge on this - do you have a prediction on how you see car usage developing? All electric? Hybrids? Hydrogen?

I am slightly baffled that the government is (rightly imho) facilitating research into self driving cars but dragging their heels on support for alternative fuels research.
 
I am slightly baffled that the government is (rightly imho) facilitating research into self driving cars but dragging their heels on support for alternative fuels research.
The research is good and good for the UK. However the implementation will take a long time We are looking at closer to 50 years than 5 years for autonomous vehicles on the road inthe wild.

I know there have been some trials on publiuc roads but that has bene drastically back peddled as the enormity of the task (and the liability) as become clarified. There are now several testing sights, mock up towns (like battle villages for FIBUA) where tests can be done without the chance of killing civilians.
 
It's amazing how much the Nissan leaf costs, my Dad is desperate to own one. Considering we are all going to be driving all electric vehicles by 2025 (so say the Gov) we are nowhere near an affordable, usable and economic business model. Adsa in Merthry has 5 recharging points that's it for the whole of the town. I am presuming big cities are more advanced.
You wouldn't believe the tidal wave of capital heading in that direction.........it's the "new black", and not without merit.
 
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The research is good and good for the UK. However the implementation will take a long time We are looking at closer to 50 years than 5 years for autonomous vehicles on the road inthe wild.

I know there have been some trials on publiuc roads but that has bene drastically back peddled as the enormity of the task (and the liability) as become clarified. There are now several testing sights, mock up towns (like battle villages for FIBUA) where tests can be done without the chance of killing civilians.
Agree on the time frame and I just hope short term-ism doesn’t hit the level of support, especially as it’s likely that prior to full blown self drive these tests are likely to produce a raft of assistive technologies.
 
The first of many I presume ? Japan is firmly in the E.U. corner, we can expect lots of closed door deals, offering more than we have to give. Bitter pill to swallow if you work in the Honda factory and voted to leave irrespective if think it’s Brexit driven or not.
Agreed. It is a bitter pill, but sad fact is, we've been losing and leaking manufacturing jobs before we went into the EU, whilst we've been in the EU (in your neck of the woods, you've lost LG ( Korean) completely, elements of Panasonic and Sony) and obviously we will, after we leave the EU. We've also attracted a lot of those "Foreign" companies in the first place and there is plenty we can do to keep attracting Foreign Investment.
Rationally, it's now part and parcel of working in Manufacturing... it's Transitory, usually for reasons beyond your control. You want to stay in it, then you'd better be mobile, or you better have a transferable skill.
As for Japan now being firmly in the EU corner: It'll be in Japan's corner first, last and always.
If those EU countries want to pay way over the odds, ( but check the EU rules on bribing offering incentives to companies) just to try and beat us in attracting a Japanese manufacturing company to their country, well good luck to them... and we might want to ask them if they want a loan if we judge they could be successful.
Brexit driven, or not, those Japanese companies are also well aware that it's also a bit simplistic to say those companies will be in the corner of whoever offers the best deal. The idea that you can wipe out a successful Production Facility that has been run to their standards, with their reputation maintained by working in that country and take it somewhere else in the region... just because the Local Labour costs are cheaper, has blown back in the faces of many an accountant. Those in Honda and others, won't forget what they managed to achieve here and how quickly they managed to achieve it whilst they were here. ( They also liked to employ quite a few ex-Servicemen.)
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
For this reason alone, the TM deal is logical and expeditious, as we haven't a government that is fit for playing in the big leagues at the moment. Hopefully, a deal will get done and the backstop won't be needed and we can redirect fire from each other and back onto those who rule us poorly.
The traditional parties all seem to be subject to a degree of implosion.

Labour has its Corbyn/Momentum/antisemitism problem, with 7 MP's already jumped ship and more possibly to follow. Labour also has many MP's pushing for a "people's referendum" and getting agitated that Corbyn won't campaign for one.

The Tories are suffering from the 'purple revolution' where ex-UK members who have returned to the fold are looking to deselect prominent Remain supporters who have tried to derail Brexit. May's divisive leadership is another big minus, as is having a majority of MP's who don't want to Brexit, but fear the consequences of not doing so,

Brexit seems to be catalysing change in the two big parties - an added complication being that Farage's new party is poising in the wings and ready to capitalise on their disarray to partially replace them.

Wordsmith
 
You reckon Liam Fox is deliberately not doing well at negotiating any trade deals? You reckon David Davis was secretly plotting to feck up WA negotiations?
Sorry mate, I'm lost now. That would take too much brain power and an actual knowledge of what was going on. I'm really only an observer on a very shallow level and you shouldn't take much that I post as any sort of analysis of things.

It's just stream of consciousness drivel for the most part and I don't remember stuff I've posted.
 
You sound as if you have some knowledge on this - do you have a prediction on how you see car usage developing? All electric? Hybrids? Hydrogen?

I am slightly baffled that the government is (rightly imho) facilitating research into self driving cars but dragging their heels on support for alternative fuels research.
From a Customs perspective the key here is tax. Take Self driving cars will by definition not be taxable in the same way, if they are electric there will be no Excise, Customs, charged. HCO provide a huge percentage of the tax take, that will have to be written off. Conoco as was, alone provided 90K a week to the exchequer back in the 80's, just in the NE London area. Hydrogen was a different proposition. I have other expertise other than an interested observer and one time fan driven by a transport oriented Father who was driving when carbide lights were in. Funnily enough I've just been reading some of his Pitman papers on transport generally back in the 50's when he was a a WO2 approaching military retirement. But electric motors in vehicles are not new, they are fairly restrictive in range at the moment. But the key thing to keep your eye on IMHO is where the Green lobby goes. It's very vociferous at the moment, anything that has an impact of "global Warming" will drive things.
 
The traditional parties all seem to be subject to a degree of implosion.

Labour has its Corbyn/Momentum/antisemitism problem, with 7 MP's already jumped ship and more possibly to follow. Labour also has many MP's pushing for a "people's referendum" and getting agitated that Corbyn won't campaign for one.

The Tories are suffering from the 'purple revolution' where ex-UK members who have returned to the fold are looking to deselect prominent Remain supporters who have tried to derail Brexit. May's divisive leadership is another big minus, as is having a majority of MP's who don't want to Brexit, but fear the consequences of not doing so,

Brexit seems to be catalysing change in the two big parties - an added complication being that Farage's new party is poising in the wings and ready to capitalise on their disarray to partially replace them.

Wordsmith
It will take years for the realignment to work itself out and we can't wait that long.. That is why I see TMs deal as the baseline, benchmark, underpinning of our future direction of travel outside the EU. Without it, the dream of overturning everything and restoring us to the golden glories of stability in the EU is still possible.

Do you think the gang of 7 would have formed, IF May had already got her WA through parliament ?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
It will take years for the realignment to work itself out and we can't wait that long.. That is why I see TMs deal as the baseline, benchmark, underpinning of our future direction of travel outside the EU. Without it, the dream of overturning everything and restoring us to the golden glories of stability in the EU is still possible.

Do you think the gang of 7 would have formed, IF May had already got her WA through parliament ?
You still haven't answered the question about what happens if we sign up to May's WA and the EU refuse to ever let us leave it - I've posed it several times now.

As I have repeatedly pointed out, the solution is simple; allow the UK to unilaterally exit the backstop but revert to WTO terms if no FTA has been agreed with the EU. That is what will happen in the event of a hard Brexit anyway.

So why won't the EU change the WA to state that?

There can only be one explanation - they intend to trap us in it.

Wordsmith
 
We simply ignore them.

What are they going to do, impose an economic blockade on us? Declare war? Sulk like @Bagl0ck?
I would have thought they would gape in astonishment as our standing in the world, our credit ratting and our attractiveness to foreign investment plummets at a rate of knots due to is unilaterally abrogating an international treaty?
 
Sorry mate, I'm lost now. That would take too much brain power and an actual knowledge of what was going on. I'm really only an observer on a very shallow level and you shouldn't take much that I post as any sort of analysis of things.

It's just stream of consciousness drivel for the most part and I don't remember stuff I've posted.
We've managed to piss off the Chinese and Japanese in the same week, no mean feat.
 
The UK can't ignore a binding international treaty it has freely signed. That would be immensely damaging to the UK's reputation.

Wordsmith
The last two and a half years haven't been?
 
The traditional parties all seem to be subject to a degree of implosion.

Labour has its Corbyn/Momentum/antisemitism problem, with 7 MP's already jumped ship and more possibly to follow. Labour also has many MP's pushing for a "people's referendum" and getting agitated that Corbyn won't campaign for one.

The Tories are suffering from the 'purple revolution' where ex-UK members who have returned to the fold are looking to deselect prominent Remain supporters who have tried to derail Brexit. May's divisive leadership is another big minus, as is having a majority of MP's who don't want to Brexit, but fear the consequences of not doing so,

Brexit seems to be catalysing change in the two big parties - an added complication being that Farage's new party is poising in the wings and ready to capitalise on their disarray to partially replace them.

Wordsmith
It’s the timing I can’t quite understand.

LibDems advocating a non elected libdem leader.
A group of pro E.U. blairites leaving labour in a fit of pique.
Blair/Sorros pushing for a losers vote.

Why did they quit now? Why not a year or two ago when momentum first started trying to deselect people?

Either way, it’s been quite funny reading the comments from constituents. I suspect non of them will be getting re-elected as MPs in the foreseeable future.
 
You still haven't answered the question about what happens if we sign up to May's WA and the EU refuse to ever let us leave it - I've posed it several times now.

As I have repeatedly pointed out, the solution is simple; allow the UK to unilaterally exit the backstop but revert to WTO terms if no FTA has been agreed with the EU. That is what will happen in the event of a hard Brexit anyway.

So why won't the EU change the WA to state that?

There can only be one explanation - they intend to trap us in it.

Wordsmith
I agree about the trap, as the EU is convinced we need to go through a period of punishment and twisting around on the backstop is their way to humilate us... But, by their own words, if they tried to keep that game going indefinently, it would be the final nail in the happy smiley federal union. So the period will have an inbuilt release day at their discretion and where they will deem to feel the punishment has been enough and let us go. You see it as a trap, I think they're underestimate the british people and driving into that ambush will make everyone on the fence to wake up and see the union for what it is.

But, without the WA we are stuck in base and gives the backsliders and liars every chance to talk the people around to just not bothering any of this.
 
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