Brexit Phase Two - Trade

The 2022 GE will be very interesting - particularly for the more vocal Remain supporting MP's with small majorities in Brexit supporting seats. I suspect the main opposition party in those seats will put in opponents with strong Brexit credentials then flag the sitting MP's record in opposing Brexit. Given that floating voters in marginal seats don't have strong party loyalties, that could result in quite a few MP's being unseated.

The other joker in the pack could be Farage's new party, if they stand in 2022. If Brexit goes ahead on schedule, they might not win any seats, but if Farage is very selective in which seats he targets, he might split the vote of prominent Remain supporters ad change parliament to a more euro-skeptic composition.

Interesting times indeed.

Farage needs to delegate and find a group of say 4-5 very high profile starlets. Celebrity attracts votes, its the modern age, non-entities or tory colonel blimps will fail, as its still a FPP election.
Farage needs to delegate and find a group of say 4-5 very high profile starlets. Celebrity attracts votes, its the modern age, non-entities or tory colonel blimps will fail, as its still a FPP election.
Sadly for Nigel, Alf Garnet's passed away
Im aware of that.

Irish wagons for example are notoriously poorly maintained and I’m aware of a few cases where the drivers aren’t even qualified being pulled over. Garda have been quite happy to see a HGV driven with an 8 tonne licence so off to Holyhead they go.

It always amazes me how few British wagons are on the roads and especially on ferries.

It’s almost like in many cases we’ve outsourced transport jobs to the lowest standard under the auspices if it’s ok for (insert country here) then it’s ok for the UK. Similar was seen with dieslegate (VW got their vehicles approved in country’s with poor regulatory alignment)

Ikea drivers living in trucks for months
As part of my dissertation back in my Uni days I wrote a long piece on the dumbing down of HGV jobs by employers who couldn’t run a chip shop. The whole (by that I mean the majority of 1 man bands) industry was hijacked by people whose attitude to the industry was akin to a hobby gone spectacularly wrong. This is somewhat born out by the chronic shortage of drivers and drivers to be (who never do) that exists today. The problem today is that the most common source of recruits ex-servicemen has long left the stage as the forces offer highly skilled qualifications by which ex-service people no longer need to look to such a shite ridden industry for their daily bread. To be replaced by an industry which expects its employees to fund their entry into the industry and then fund their trade qualifications throughout their career.
Figures released this morning:

Here is another take from Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets

Whatever your views on Brexit the fact is that UK economy still grew faster in second half of 2018, than Germany, France and Italy, but hey Brexit uncertainty blah....
Or perhaps Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist,

we should not panic about the 0.4% fall in GDP in December.

"About half of the decline reflected a 2.8% month-to-month decline in construction output, which is erratic and often is initially under-reported. Similarly, half of the 0.5% month-to-month drop in industrial production was driven by a collapse in output in the pharma sector, which often swings wildly," he said.

Mr Tombs also points out that the new pattern of retail sales caused by Black Friday also skewed the data.
Another sock making things up with no proper links. That link shows the forecast for 2019 as 1.7%.
The actual GDP and economic growth for 2018 was 1.5% and not the 1% you so casually plucked out of the air.
Trading Economics

Agreed that economic forecasting only exists to give astrology a good name.
Are you unable to read your own link clown ?

French GDP growth 2018

Q1 - 0.2%
Q2 - 0.2%
Q3 - 0.3%
Q4 - 0.3%

2018 French GDP growth 1.0%
More hysteria out of Ireland.

'No deal' Brexit could break up United Kingdom, warns former Irish prime minister
Leaving the EU without a deal could set in motion a chain of events that would break up the United Kingdom, Ireland’s former prime minister has warned. John Bruton, who served as the taoiseach from 1994 to 1997, said a hard border between north and south after Brexit would substantially increase the chances of a referendum on Irish reunification.
Given that the UK has already signaled it would not impose a hard border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the hard border would simply be imposed by the EU on the ROI's side of the border. That is likely to both fornicate the ROI's economy and increase dissatisfaction with the EU in the ROI.

Why should the UK be blamed for something imposed by the EU?

Oh dear... Spreadsheet Phil appears to have gone off message...

The ONS blamed falls in factory output and car production for the slowdown, among other factors.
It follows forecasts of slower growth in 2019 due to Brexit uncertainty and a weaker global economy.
According to the ONS, quarterly growth also slowed, falling to 0.2% in the three months to December - down from 0.6% in the three months to September.
However, Chancellor Philip Hammond said the data showed the economy remained "fundamentally strong" and that he did not foresee a recession.


Book Reviewer
Figures released this morning:

Any reason for the downturn in the Eurozone?

ECB sees global economic slowdown in 2019 | Reuters

Or are you just looking at U.K. numbers in a bubble.

My wife bought new cushions in December? I could statistically prove her cushion selection correlates to the U.K. economic outlook just as somebody with an anti brexit agenda will correlate anything bad (ignoring the plenty of good news story’s out there of course) with brexit.

The key to any form of analysis is identifying what factors impact on what you’re looking at and what weighting to give to them. Individual factors by themselves may not cause a problem. Several factors combined may magnify the effect.

It’s a bit like the the pants risk assessments we’ve seen on brexit.

Do you really think they’ll by food riots and a collapse of the NHS?
@Bagl0ck doesn't actually look at anything beyond who authored a post before pounding the mong buttons.

Funny then, that it gets all upset when others return the compliment...
Out of 48 dumbs, 44 have been issued by BagCock.

This suggests to me that BagCock is a mutant that does not understand English.

I might even go as far as to say he is from mainland Europe and will have to decant back to the mainland as he will not meet the criteria for staying in the UK. Just one reason why it is so vocal and anti Brexit.
Why the dumb BagC0ck ? Is reading a graph beyond your intellectual capacity ?
Allow me to improve your vocabulary.

Definition of OXYMORON

: a combination of contradictory or incongruous words (such as cruel kindness)broadly : something (such as a concept) that is made up of contradictory or incongruous elements
(a) Reading a graph and (b) Baglock's intellectual capacity are two contradictory concepts.

Wordsmith :smile:

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