Brexit Phase Two - Trade

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Robme

LE
Same way talking to a leave voter. Actually. Not all. But some - to qualify my statement.
The difference is that remoaners are facists and Brexiteers democrats.
 
Yeah, laughing at the experts is always a good idea if you want to ignore what's going on around you.

'The UK government hopes that Brexit will make the UK a better place to do business, but new numbers from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) show that the opposite is happening. UK firms are voting with their money and offshoring new investments to the rest of the EU. The study finds that the Brexit vote has led to a 12% increase in new foreign direct investment (FDI) projects by UK firms in EU countries, a total increase in foreign investment of £8.3bn. A no-deal Brexit would further accelerate the outflow of investment from the UK. This is the first systematic, evidence-based analysis of how the Leave vote has affected outward investment by UK firms. The findings support anecdotal evidence that fears about Brexit are causing UK companies to move investments elsewhere in Europe.

'The report’s findings support the idea that UK firms are offshoring production to the EU because they expect Brexit to increase barriers to trade and migration, making the UK a less attractive place to do business. Holger Breinlich said, “Our results show that Brexit has already led to an investment outflow from the UK of over £8bn. “These outflows are likely to accelerate substantially in the event of a no-deal Brexit.” Dennis Novy said, “The economic risk of Brexit is larger on the UK side of the Channel. British firms feel compelled to invest more in the EU but not the other way around. “Combined with existing evidence that the Brexit vote has already affected the UK economy through lower real wages, slower GDP growth and fewer firms starting to export to the EU, the initial signs are that ‘Project Fear’ may turn out to have been ‘Project Reality’. Thomas Sampson said, “The data show that Brexit has made the UK a less attractive place to invest. “Lower investment hurts the economy and means that UK workers are going to miss out on new job opportunities.” '

UK firms investing billions abroad because of Brexit | London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
Out of all the major EU countries the UK is still doing OK and far better than most, not booming but steady which should nt be sniffed at! - despite the damage Renainers are doing. With the German recession and the French & Italian severe financial problems the pound puts us in a relatively decent position and provides a level of insulation from the euro zone
 
2. Only 5% of UK firms do any business with the EU.

What effect has Brexit had on the UK economy?
Nice use of statistics there!

'Depending on which you use, probably between around 5% and 8% of businesses export to the EU. “Indicative estimates” published by the government could justify a figure of up to around 11%, if you’re willing to make enough assumptions.'

How many businesses export to the EU?

And those 5(ish)% account for:

'About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2017—£274 billion out of £616 billion total exports.'

Everything you might want to know about the UK's trade with the EU[/QUOTE]

So, those 5(ish)% account for approximately 44% of UK exports.
 
Out of all the major EU countries the UK is still doing OK and far better than most, not booming but steady which should nt be sniffed at! - despite the damage Renainers are doing. With the German recession and the French & Italian severe financial problems the pound puts us in a relatively decent position and provides a level of insulation from the euro zone
And guess what, we're not in the Euro!
 

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
Out of all the major EU countries the UK is still doing OK and far better than most, not booming but steady which should nt be sniffed at! - despite the damage Renainers are doing. With the German recession and the French & Italian severe financial problems the pound puts us in a relatively decent position and provides a level of insulation from the euro zone
Figures released this morning:

 
D

Deleted 158059

Guest
We already export weapons to those places. What will we able to do post-Brexit that we couldn’t do before?
Yemen has been demolished thanks in part to our supplies of weapons systems and ordinance

I wonder if the Gulf states will demand large numbers of Visas and how well that'll go down with the immigration obsessed crowd?
 

Robme

LE
Why train your staff when you can employ graduate trained Romainians on minimum wage?
And compleatly ignore employment and H&S, laws at the same time.
 
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And alarms bells sounding about the Irish economy, even a Brexit deal may not stop another economic meltdown.

GDP 50% higher than before the 2008 crash, yet employment and wage levels are still @ 2008 levels.

Economic smoke and O'mirrors
 
Yemen has been demolished thanks in part to our supplies of weapons systems and ordinance

I wonder if the Gulf states will demand large numbers of Visas and how well that'll go down with the immigration obsessed crowd?

Can we add rich Arabs to your hatred of Indians?
 

Robme

LE
I've got another 15 years max until retirement.

You're already there.

I'm not talking about older folk. It's the <40's leaving that will **** us
If you want to see the current effects of the brain drain. Check out the numbers of HGV drivers and Teachers quoting their industries. I used those two as examples across the board of the problems U.K. Plc face now.
 
Let's start Monday off with a laugh at the so called experts



The French Government forecast for 2018 was between 1.9 - 2.1 %. the actual growth rate was 1.0%



Bank of France sees French first-quarter economic growth at 0.4 percent | Reuters

France never achieved growth of 0.4% in any quarter of 2018 ( 0.2, 0.2, 0.3 & 0.3 ) yet in the midst of Brexit, a world economic slowdown, trade wars and internal French strife, the experts believe that France will outperform every quarter of 2018.
Another sock making things up with no proper links. That link shows the forecast for 2019 as 1.7%.
The actual GDP and economic growth for 2018 was 1.5% and not the 1% you so casually plucked out of the air.
Trading Economics

Agreed that economic forecasting only exists to give astrology a good name.


 

Robme

LE
You mean the eastern EU states have robbed the EU development funds blind and not built new stuff?

Colour me not surprised :wink:
Moreover just how did Mutties Deutschland afford the massive (and ongoing) reunification costs bringing east Germany under the economic miracle. Thank fook for control of the European Central Bank eh?
 
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Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Couldn't agree more.. The ripples created from brexit are many and varied and I find it interesting the media have been very slow to pickup those ripples.. One could argue it is intentional, as the only chance of overturning brexit is via a centrist movement and blair and his cronies get far more press than they should.
The 2022 GE will be very interesting - particularly for the more vocal Remain supporting MP's with small majorities in Brexit supporting seats. I suspect the main opposition party in those seats will put in opponents with strong Brexit credentials then flag the sitting MP's record in opposing Brexit. Given that floating voters in marginal seats don't have strong party loyalties, that could result in quite a few MP's being unseated.

The other joker in the pack could be Farage's new party, if they stand in 2022. If Brexit goes ahead on schedule, they might not win any seats, but if Farage is very selective in which seats he targets, he might split the vote of prominent Remain supporters ad change parliament to a more euro-skeptic composition.

Interesting times indeed.

Wordsmith
 

Robme

LE
Having worked in transport for quite a long time including six years dealing with hauliers all over Europe, I can definitely say the UK leads in 'doing things properly' in most cases with regards to compliance and proper maintenance on the vehicles, at least compared to many of the European counterparts.
I worked on the Olympic Games London logistic delivery during the building phase. The only hauliers who got turned away mainly due to trying to ignore delivery times, were caboters. Who would resort to shrugging shoulders and claiming they didn’t speak English. Pleased to think that E.U. leaving will see the end of cabotage, to many dead motorists due to wrong side of the road driving.
 
Be quite amusing if those countries who still have conscription said "Yes, come on over: but you have to complete your two years compulsory military service." I think he might find that he has developed a pressing need to wash his hair, or something. Or perhaps - being the chap of integrity he appears to be - he will tailor his application only to those countries which don't currently have compulsory military service.
 
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