Brexit Phase Two - Trade

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British Prime Minister Theresa May has rejected the idea of targeting a customs union with the European Union, pouring cold water on hopes from some that she could shift her Brexit policy to win over the opposition Labour Party.
Both Labour and the EU were very keen on that idea.

In her letter to Corbyn

I am not clear why you believe it would be preferable to seek a say in future EU trade deals rather than the ability to strike our own deals
UK's May rejects pivot towards Brexit customs union compromise | Reuters

She nailed that one :D:D
 
Let's start Monday off with a laugh at the so called experts



The French Government forecast for 2018 was between 1.9 - 2.1 %. the actual growth rate was 1.0%



Bank of France sees French first-quarter economic growth at 0.4 percent | Reuters

France never achieved growth of 0.4% in any quarter of 2018 ( 0.2, 0.2, 0.3 & 0.3 ) yet in the midst of Brexit, a world economic slowdown, trade wars and internal French strife, the experts believe that France will outperform every quarter of 2018.
Yeah, laughing at the experts is always a good idea if you want to ignore what's going on around you.

'The UK government hopes that Brexit will make the UK a better place to do business, but new numbers from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) show that the opposite is happening. UK firms are voting with their money and offshoring new investments to the rest of the EU. The study finds that the Brexit vote has led to a 12% increase in new foreign direct investment (FDI) projects by UK firms in EU countries, a total increase in foreign investment of £8.3bn. A no-deal Brexit would further accelerate the outflow of investment from the UK. This is the first systematic, evidence-based analysis of how the Leave vote has affected outward investment by UK firms. The findings support anecdotal evidence that fears about Brexit are causing UK companies to move investments elsewhere in Europe.

'The report’s findings support the idea that UK firms are offshoring production to the EU because they expect Brexit to increase barriers to trade and migration, making the UK a less attractive place to do business. Holger Breinlich said, “Our results show that Brexit has already led to an investment outflow from the UK of over £8bn. “These outflows are likely to accelerate substantially in the event of a no-deal Brexit.” Dennis Novy said, “The economic risk of Brexit is larger on the UK side of the Channel. British firms feel compelled to invest more in the EU but not the other way around. “Combined with existing evidence that the Brexit vote has already affected the UK economy through lower real wages, slower GDP growth and fewer firms starting to export to the EU, the initial signs are that ‘Project Fear’ may turn out to have been ‘Project Reality’. Thomas Sampson said, “The data show that Brexit has made the UK a less attractive place to invest. “Lower investment hurts the economy and means that UK workers are going to miss out on new job opportunities.” '

UK firms investing billions abroad because of Brexit | London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
 
Combined with existing evidence that the Brexit vote has already affected the UK economy through lower real wages, slower GDP growth and fewer firms starting to export to the EU, the initial signs are that ‘Project Fear’ may turn out to have been ‘Project Reality’.
1. Wages are rising at the fastest rate in 10 years.

2. Only 5% of UK firms do any business with the EU.

3. Slower GDP growth is a far cry from the promised instant recession.

4. Brexit ravaged UK higher GDP growth 2018 than France. Italy in recession, Germany narrowly avoided recession.

You might want to read this

[QUOTE]What is clear, however, is that two-and-a-half years after the referendum, the most dire predictions about what could have happened to financial wellbeing have failed to transpire. [/QUOTE]

What effect has Brexit had on the UK economy?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
She wants to stay in the EU minus FoM.
Let's start Monday off with a laugh at the so called experts

The French Government forecast for 2018 was between 1.9 - 2.1 %. the actual growth rate was 1.0%

Bank of France sees French first-quarter economic growth at 0.4 percent | Reuters

France never achieved growth of 0.4% in any quarter of 2018 ( 0.2, 0.2, 0.3 & 0.3 ) yet in the midst of Brexit, a world economic slowdown, trade wars and internal French strife, the experts believe that France will outperform every quarter of 2018.
These two issues are interconnected and show May's utter lack of understanding or experience in how business operates.

Setting aside the comparatively minor issue of modifying our regulations to stop unskilled economic migrants coming to the UK and claiming from our benefits system without having first paid into it, the most important thing to come out of Brexit will be the ability to selectively reduce tax and regulation.
  • Every unnecessary regulation a business has to comply with is a drag on that business's profitability
  • Higher taxes cut back on a business profitability and reduce the money that can be reinvested back into the business.
After we leave the EU, I would hope that regulation an be selectively pruned. There is some decent EU inspired regulation; there are some useless ones. We should be looking to keep the good while junking the ones that just impose unnecessary bureaucracy.

As far as taxes go, what matters is the overall tax take, not the level of taxation. If you can cut taxes by 25% but also increase tax take by 30% by (a) cutting out tax loopholes and (b) attracting companies to Britain because of the favourable tax regime, everyone benefits. Individual companies make more profit, while there is also more money for public services.

Cutting tax and regulation in this manner is the work of a decade - the worst thing you could to would be to cut both after Brexit as a PR exercise. It needs to be done slowly and selectively - don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

Even if May doesn't understand that, the EU does - the WA the EU is trying to impose on us is designed to stop us reducing tax and regulation and gaining a competitive advantage over the EU post-Brexit.

Finally, if you wonder why France's economic growth is stalling (as it is in a number of the EU countries), one major factor is excessive tax and regulation.

Wordsmith
 
If the promised event happening on 29th of March is postponed or moved for further blah-blah, let us all hope that it is all concluded before the 26th of May.
That is when the real shit-storm starts for Brussels and the EC.
Coupled with Frexit promised by François Asselineau we now see these posters starting to appear (a bit early perhaps).
Melanchon.jpg
Melanchon.jpg
 
Because none of the problems that make them so angry are going to be solved by brexit.

Immigration for example. Net migration isn't reducing and is at a fairly static level with an increase in non EU migration making up the shortfall from the EU.

Angry leavers won't suddenly become happier with things anytime soon. Especially the poorest who voted to improve their lives with the promise of improved public services and less competition for jobs

Are you going to start raging about Indians again?
 
If the promised event happening on 29th of March is postponed or moved for further blah-blah, let us all hope that it is all concluded before the 26th of May.
That is when the real shit-storm starts for Brussels and the EC.
Coupled with Frexit promised by François Asselineau we now see these posters starting to appear (a bit early perhaps).
View attachment 377255View attachment 377255
Said a number of times, the EU are completely focused on the coming european elections.. Its possible a more hostile EU parliament will make the Commissions job that much harder and one supposes a downside of brexit is farage and others not being their.

Maybe that is TMs leverage ?? either do a deal before March, or get a load of British MEPs led by by Nige.
 
With friends yes it's fine, but remember new language learners have lack of confidence so it's easy to slip into English when someone leads the way.

Not to mention what happened in the Ardennes (and more recently Durbuy) was people would keep changing their way of phrasing something until they said something you could understand - which was great; but it feels awkward to ask the lady working in Pauls, who speaks fluent English, to humour me in the same way when I buy a coffee on the way to work.
I used to order "Ein Stumpf si'lvous plait in Brussels, just to keep the balance.
 
If we accept that we are on course for an extension being sought at the very least and notwithstanding that an extension is not a unilateral decision, what else is actually on the table right now as an option.

With or without a deal, is Brexit going to happen or is it going to die this winter? You can't have it both ways but in the meantime...

View attachment 377220
Oh please, they'll be banned soon, then what can he grasp?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Said a number of times, the EU are completely focused on the coming European elections.. Its possible a more hostile EU parliament will make the Commissions job that much harder and one supposes a downside of Brexit is Farage and others not being there.

Maybe that is TMs leverage ?? either do a deal before March, or get a load of British MEPs led by by Nige.
If May delays the Brexit date, Farage and his new party will stand in the European elections if the UK participates. I suspect the resulting protest vote would see more than a few MEP's elected - probably at the expense of the existing UKIP - which is now adopting a distinctly racist tone.

However, May's biggest problem would lie within the UK in the future. If Farage sets up a genuinely populist right of centre party (and avoids the mistakes of UKIP when he was running it), they would draw a lot of their support from disaffected Tories - and indeed moderate Labour supporters.

Not Brexiting on schedule - and in a form that prevents the EU interfering in our affairs after Brexit - risks adding a distinctly unpredictable joker into our 2 1/2 party system. Neither the Tories, Labour, nor the Limp Dems will want that - it could result in one of them being consigned to the other darkness as voters remind the existing parties they are not indispensable.

Wordsmith
 
If May delays the Brexit date, Farage and his new party will stand in the European elections if the UK participates. I suspect the resulting protest vote would see more than a few MEP's elected - probably at the expense of the existing UKIP - which is now adopting a distinctly racist tone.

However, May's biggest problem would lie within the UK in the future. If Farage sets up a genuinely populist right of centre party (and avoids the mistakes of UKIP when he was running it), they would draw a lot of their support from disaffected Tories - and indeed moderate Labour supporters.

Not Brexiting on schedule - and in a form that prevents the EU interfering in our affairs after Brexit - risks adding a distinctly unpredictable joker into our 2 1/2 party system. Neither the Tories, Labour, nor the Limp Dems will want that - it could result in one of them being consigned to the other darkness as voters remind the existing parties they are not indispensable.

Wordsmith
Couldn't agree more.. The ripples created from brexit are many and varied and I find it interesting the media have been very slow to pickup those ripples.. One could argue it is intentional, as the only chance of overturning brexit is via a centrist movement and blair and his cronies get far more press than they should.
 

Robme

LE
Or join the USA as the 52nd State.
Now this idea was mooted a long time ago. However this would mean the end of the NHS, as millions of US citizens flocked to the U.K. to take up free health care which the stupid yanks can’t be arsed to offer their own citizens. Preferring to let them die. Can’t see U.K. politicos voting for the death of the NHS, can you?
 
It is for May though; FoM is her redest of red lines.
Well yes, but its her problem because the EU are joining the concept of Schengen with the CU. We are not members of Schengen but as I said before the signing of Lisbon by those fools of Tooks had almost made Schengen universal by default. Can you see the distinction? Schengen is the core Lisbon tightens the noose for those countries not in Schengen because it removes art 32 of the treaty of Rome and 30 of Amsterdam by which are rights to defend the borders. But the two are are entirely separate matters.
There is no reason at all, subject to existing portals why information should not be shared, FWIW which isn't much. The Point is that the EU have more to lose than we have in this exchange, so in that sense it is Brussels problem, after all the incomes of the 3.2 Million declared here do go home to swell coffers there in excess of the actual cost of membership. Having read the documents that @Alan Partridge HAS POSTED I can't see that much that is contentious, but the stupid thing here is that if the acceptance of ECJ rulings ( which must in themselves comply with international law) are time limited and that is accepted why is the EU stupid enough not to time limit the backstop-given that the Backstop would itself be limited in the acceptance of the withdrawal Agreement and would therefore never come to pass. Are they all fixated? Or just stupid.
 
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