Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
May's Commons statement at 15.30 should be pure comedy.

She's going to be howled down from all sides of the house, and I doubt she'll get much more than token support from her backbench. Yet another epic humiliation for May coming up.

Wordsmith
 
The only way I can see this ending anything like well - although we may be into some new, dystopian, OED definitions of the word 'well' here - is if PMTM stands up and says something to the effect of:

1. During the course of our discussions this weekend, Mr Tusk conceded that the backstop was unsatisfactory and clearly needed to be renegotiated. It is clearly pointless asking the House to vote on the motion as it stands, as the backstop option outlined there is now dead. Until I return from discussions with Mr Tusk, we do not know what the option will change to, and I therefore seek leave from the House to delay the vote until the reframing of the Northern Ireland border question is complete and the EU's revised proposal is known

Or

2. It is clear that the motion tomorrow would be defeated. Therefore we propose to replace it with a motion 'This House has Confidence in Her Majesty's Government'


3. It is clear that the vote tomorrow cannot be won by the government. Given the profoundly serious consequences of a No Deal Brexit brought about as a result of parliamentary paralysis, we have decided that a mandate from the people is required, and will be introducing the necessary business to allow for a General Election in the New Year

Or

4. It is clear to me that I am unable to command a majority in the House and have informed Her Majesty the Queen that I intend to resign as Prime Minister as soon as my party has chosen a new leader/ I have been informed that 48 or more of my Honourable and Right Honourable Friends have written to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee to inform him that they have no confidence in my leadership. It would therefore be inappropriate at this juncture for the House to be asked to support a motion with which my successor may not wish to be associated, and the vote will therefore be delayed until [gives date at which leadership changeover occurs]


1 - Plausible but for the fact that unless the EU is wavering in the manner of Mrs May, the deal won't be changed

2 - Possible but unlikely - it in effect demands that the ERG members support PMTM (they'd all have to think very hard about bringing down their own government), but would create such resentment, there'd be letters from all sides of the party winging their way in to bin her

3 - Not likely because this is Labour policy. She is daft enough to try this, but would the cabinet be mad enough to let her have a second go at losing an election within the space of 12 months? Doubtful in the extreme

4 - Not impossible. If Graham Brady's postbag has ticked over the magic figure this morning... But likely to lead to calls for a Confidence Vote. Only if Mrs Foster has confirmed that the DUP will support the government in any subsequent confidence vote...

As Wordsmith says, this has to be getting to the point of endgame for PMTM - she's hung on through being doggedly determined in her approach and maintaining a degree of public admiration (often grudging), but this is now reaching ridiculous heights...
A less considered analysis but I thought "Game on" as soon a I saw BoJo with a haircut.
 
Word is that TMPM is off to the EU to beg them for a 'Scout's honour, honest guv' promise that we can leave the backstop.
She is humiliating us all.
We should walk away, no deal, call their bluff.
 
Word is that TMPM is off to the EU to beg them for a 'Scout's honour, honest guv' promise that we can leave the backstop.
She is humiliating us all.
We should walk away, no deal, call their bluff.
At this stage I'd be genuinely interested to see her do this and see our sovereign parliament take back control.

The EU probably realise that the legislature won't let national suicide fly.

Has JRM got his letters yet?
 
I’m just glad you are hear to keep me amused. Done Prada and Max Mara. Now doing a shite Italian Christmas market.....
Spent 3 months there, Cisco had taken Pirelli Photonics over and migrated/rolled out. Cracking food, some good bars. Center fine, everywhere else a shitehole.
 
The EC spokeswoman says no deal is available, nor will be. What point then of an extension, except to call a second referendum or a GE? Roll on 1530...
no- so neither side really want the back stop and there's no give? The EU must be desperate, from trusted ally to zero. Some trust there then, not that the issue was ever a matter of trust, ye ken
 
However much we may disagree on Brexit, (& we're unlikely to change each other's minds), if more people took as much interest in politics in general, we may not end up with the dire political representatives on all sides that we have now.
 
However much we may disagree on Brexit, (& we're unlikely to change each other's minds), if more people took as much interest in politics in general, we may not end up with the dire political representatives on all sides that we have now.
Remember; half the population is of below average intelligence...
 
Vote cancelled.

Theresa May is to call off Tuesday's crucial vote on her Brexit deal in the face of what was expected to be a significant defeat by Tory rebels.

Government sources have said the prime minister is set to tell MPs about the delay in a statement at 15:30 GMT.

Downing Street had been insisting the vote would go ahead.
She has to go & soon.
 
As would about 95% of people.

'Look, it's either give a bit more, or see us head off into the sunset via a disorderly Brexit, WTO rules, lots of gloating tweets from Donald Trump and a hard border in Ireland. That's all you get as my negotiating position, I'm afraid, since that's the way it is. I'm off to the nearest Costa for a brew while you talk it over. Meet you again in about an hour?'​

Not Mrs May...
Unfortunately the Grieve amendment pretty much put paid to that option as well.

Where we are is ultimately the consequence of having a political class of all sides of the house that has clung to an ever-more constricting level of orthodoxy, unable to conduct debate outside sound-bites and sadly lacking in gravitas.
The majority of parliamentarians (particularly in the Lords) are remainers - but all they need to do is frustrate. The leavers are led by careerists like BoJo and Gove (both of whom have been woefully inept), ideologues (however principled) like JRM or those whose coherence is somewhat limited (Davis).

There is no leader with the grit to execute the only plan that would bring the EU to the table, namely no-deal, no money.

ETA : To blame the shambles purely on May (and / or the Tories) is to pardon the actions of the Remain lobby - (elected and otherwise) some of which are best described as collusion with an entity in direct conflict with the interests of the UK. These people are at least as culpable in the current mess - but that's what they wanted to achieve.
 
Unfortunately the Grieve amendment pretty much put paid to that option as well.

Where we are is ultimately the consequence of having a political class of all sides of the house that has clung to an ever-more constricting level of orthodoxy, unable to conduct debate outside sound-bites and sadly lacking in gravitas.
The majority of parliamentarians (particularly in the Lords) are remainers - but all they need to do is frustrate. The leavers are led by careerists like BoJo and Gove (both of whom have been woefully inept), ideologues (however principled) like JRM or those whose coherence is somewhat limited (Davis).

There is no leader with the grit to execute the only plan that would bring the EU to the table, namely no-deal, no money.
But the Grieve Amendment has not repealed the Withdrawal Bill and the clock keeps counting down...
 

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