Brexit Phase Two - Trade

My money is now on the number of votes required for a leadership challenge now reaching the required 48 over the next few days. I don't think the Tory party has any choice left other than to remove her.

Wordsmith
I would love to think you are right but we are dealing with a bunch of spineless b@stards that are clinging onto the taxpayers trough
 
Oh FFS they are now pissing around with Parliamentary procedural points: after May has done her bit the Leader of the House will put forward a Business Statement, not a Business Motion.

So maybe no vote.

This is not going to end well
The only way I can see this ending anything like well - although we may be into some new, dystopian, OED definitions of the word 'well' here - is if PMTM stands up and says something to the effect of:

1. During the course of our discussions this weekend, Mr Tusk conceded that the backstop was unsatisfactory and clearly needed to be renegotiated. It is clearly pointless asking the House to vote on the motion as it stands, as the backstop option outlined there is now dead. Until I return from discussions with Mr Tusk, we do not know what the option will change to, and I therefore seek leave from the House to delay the vote until the reframing of the Northern Ireland border question is complete and the EU's revised proposal is known

Or

2. It is clear that the motion tomorrow would be defeated. Therefore we propose to replace it with a motion 'This House has Confidence in Her Majesty's Government'


3. It is clear that the vote tomorrow cannot be won by the government. Given the profoundly serious consequences of a No Deal Brexit brought about as a result of parliamentary paralysis, we have decided that a mandate from the people is required, and will be introducing the necessary business to allow for a General Election in the New Year

Or

4. It is clear to me that I am unable to command a majority in the House and have informed Her Majesty the Queen that I intend to resign as Prime Minister as soon as my party has chosen a new leader/ I have been informed that 48 or more of my Honourable and Right Honourable Friends have written to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee to inform him that they have no confidence in my leadership. It would therefore be inappropriate at this juncture for the House to be asked to support a motion with which my successor may not wish to be associated, and the vote will therefore be delayed until [gives date at which leadership changeover occurs]


1 - Plausible but for the fact that unless the EU is wavering in the manner of Mrs May, the deal won't be changed

2 - Possible but unlikely - it in effect demands that the ERG members support PMTM (they'd all have to think very hard about bringing down their own government), but would create such resentment, there'd be letters from all sides of the party winging their way in to bin her

3 - Not likely because this is Labour policy. She is daft enough to try this, but would the cabinet be mad enough to let her have a second go at losing an election within the space of 12 months? Doubtful in the extreme

4 - Not impossible. If Graham Brady's postbag has ticked over the magic figure this morning... But likely to lead to calls for a Confidence Vote. Only if Mrs Foster has confirmed that the DUP will support the government in any subsequent confidence vote...

As Wordsmith says, this has to be getting to the point of endgame for PMTM - she's hung on through being doggedly determined in her approach and maintaining a degree of public admiration (often grudging), but this is now reaching ridiculous heights...
 
That's an open ended contract. Until the job is done.

Oh, and it's £10,000 per week. Which is nice. I get these sort of offers quite regularly. It's a cross to bear.

Shame i can't get on some post-grad scheme... :rofl:

my sister announced this Christmas that she'll be completing her PhD soon.

Not bad. Two PhD in a cohort of five. (You'll remember of course that one of my cousins also had one). A slack handful of masters, a nd a f*ck ton of bachelor degrees. And three of us made it to far higher rank than you in the forces (well, one was raf).

I guess I was from the deeper end of the gene pool. even though we started from the tougher end of Warrington.
Of course it is.....you're confusing speculative emails from bottom feeders with job offers.

I'm impressed with your knowledge by association though...
 
I would love to think you are right but we are dealing with a bunch of spineless b@stards that are clinging onto the taxpayers trough
Which is why they'll remove her as long as they're sure the DUP will side with the government in a confidence vote. If they think that there's going to be an election, which might - see Amber Rudd, for example - see their small majority wiped out, or that May will be increasing the chances of them being former MPs the longer she stays on, they'll bin her.

The Tory backbenches have form for suddenly becoming very rigid of spine when they think the incumbent PM is going to cost them their seat... (see Heath, Thatcher, Duncan Smith and before that Eden, although multiple factors were at play in his departure in addition to backbenchers concluding he was a liability).
 
We neither have prosperity not sovereignty at the moment.

Yeah, London and the South East may be affluent but that doesn't extend to all areas.

I saw a piece the other day (youtube) that claimed (based on cost of living vs income) UK had the top place in the eu (london) and 9 of the 10 bottom locations...

a country with such a divide between the high and low earners, or so many low earners vs higj, is not prosperous.
Nothing to do with the EU.
 
Look at every deal...Norway, Canada, any of them...nothing as good as we have remaining in the EU. What is the fekin problem? A bunch of misguided fools...that is the only problem. Revoke art 50 and get back to sanity!
I think you've contracted whatever it is uncle_vanya has.
1smileyloonie.gif
 
I don’t think these is anything wrong with globalisation as it’s an economic phenomena. The US is a global economy but doesn’t need to joint with Canada to be a major economic force.

The real issue is the snowflakes and luvvies have missed globalisation and people in the same pot and they do not understand the objectives of the European Union in trying to create a European super state where there is wide scale social and economic engineering.

Basically the snowflake remainer types are misguided clueless arsseholes
The clueless ********* who have to fix the broken promises of gobshites if you don't mind.
 
It's simply that she has no hope of passing the deal without at least trying to get an end date on the backstop from the EU. Without passing the vote - thanks to the amendment by Grieve last week - the HoC gets to stick it's oar in and propose the basis of negotiations for a new deal.

However, what is unspoken is that the HoC majority is actually for remain, so that what will happen is that HMG will be instructed by parliament to water down the deal (after a suitable amount of pretend haggling).

This is - literally - all about parliamentary arithmetic. A large chunk of the Tories - and the DUP cannot vote for the deal because of the indefinite end of the backstop clause - and by extension, the customs union. Another large chunk of the tories (Soubry, Grieve, Wollaston etc) can't vote for it, because it does actually involve leaving the EU. Labour (a few brexit-supporters excepted) won't vote for it because their objective is to force a general election, which on the assumption they win, they will then try and negotiate a "better" deal, which won't happen because Keir Starmer is a committed remainer and by then they'll have set capital flight in motion and the economy will be on the way to oblivion.

All because not one party chose to take no-deal leave planning seriously thereby enabling its use as a negotiation standpoint.

Simples.
But it's all your fault for not wishing hard enough
 
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The clueless ********* who have to fix the broken promises of gobshites if you don't mind.
I’m just glad you are hear to keep me amused. Done Prada and Max Mara. Now doing a shite Italian Christmas market.....
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Which is why they'll remove her as long as they're sure the DUP will side with the government in a confidence vote. If they think that there's going to be an election, which might - see Amber Rudd, for example - see their small majority wiped out, or that May will be increasing the chances of them being former MPs the longer she stays on, they'll bin her.

The Tory backbenches have form for suddenly becoming very rigid of spine when they think the incumbent PM is going to cost them their seat... (see Heath, Thatcher, Duncan Smith and before that Eden, although multiple factors were at play in his departure in addition to backbenchers concluding he was a liability).
Pretty much what I think. May's original salvation was the Remain wing of the party - they may have supported her in a leadership contest because they wanted a soft Brexit and May in place to deliver it. Knowing that - and that if May won the leadership contest she was immune from further challenges for a year - I don't think the Brexit wing wanted to risk her winning the context with 'Remain' support and potentially being too close to the 2022 GE to remove before them.

However, both the Remain and Brexit wings can now see that the party itself will be fornicated if she stays in No. 10. I think they'll combine to remove her over the next few days, then have a big fight over who gets to replace her.

Wordsmith
 
I would have though that if TM when ahead with the Commons Vote tomorrow and lost (as predicted) it would have strengthened her hand to go back to the negotiating table with the EU and said right either this is changed or its now the hard brexit.

Archie
 
I would have though that if TM when ahead with the Commons Vote tomorrow and lost (as predicted) it would have strengthened her hand to go back to the negotiating table with the EU and said right either this is changed or its now the hard brexit.

Archie
As would about 95% of people.

'Look, it's either give a bit more, or see us head off into the sunset via a disorderly Brexit, WTO rules, lots of gloating tweets from Donald Trump and a hard border in Ireland. That's all you get as my negotiating position, I'm afraid, since that's the way it is. I'm off to the nearest Costa for a brew while you talk it over. Meet you again in about an hour?'​

Not Mrs May...
 

Joker62

ADC
Book Reviewer
I would have though that if TM when ahead with the Commons Vote tomorrow and lost (as predicted) it would have strengthened her hand to go back to the negotiating table with the EU and said right either this is changed or its now the hard brexit.

Archie
One slight problem with that, you need a spine to do it and she doesn't possess one!
 
Pretty much what I think. May's original salvation was the Remain wing of the party - they may have supported her in a leadership contest because they wanted a soft Brexit and May in place to deliver it. Knowing that - and that if May won the leadership contest she was immune from further challenges for a year - I don't think the Brexit wing wanted to risk her winning the context with 'Remain' support and potentially being too close to the 2022 GE to remove before them.

However, both the Remain and Brexit wings can now see that the party itself will be fornicated if she stays in No. 10. I think they'll combine to remove her over the next few days, then have a big fight over who gets to replace her.

Wordsmith
I assumed the remainers would see this deal, as a chance to lock us in and then at a later date, maybe go for a rejoin first referendum. But, I underestimated their desire to win all and seemingly, zero support from the opposing benches has hamstrung her deal. A faux renegotiation will simply not cut it. Leaving the only alternative I can see, is a call to the people.

One assumes a GE has been ruled out in recent weeks (though nothing said at the moment can be taken for granted), leaving as Auld Yin said, another promise broken and a 2nd referendum. She can't simply drop her deal or she will finally be despatched.

So it will be a straight option between her deal or remain, presumably announced after the EU reject any renegotiations to strengthen her deal against remain.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I would have though that if TM when ahead with the Commons Vote tomorrow and lost (as predicted) it would have strengthened her hand to go back to the negotiating table with the EU and said right either this is changed or its now the hard brexit.
If she lost by 150 to 200 votes - as was being predicted - the calls for her resignation would be deafening. To spend two years negotiating an agreement and then have it heavily defeated in the Commons would have been an epic humiliation she would not have survived.

Anyone with an ounce of personal honour would have resigned by now, but May's tawdry manoeuvre gives her a few more days in No. 10.

Wordsmith
 
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