Brexit Phase Two - Trade

It's not a deal; it's a withdrawal agreement. The trade deal has yet to be negotiated.

But I'll go with it too, given that the alternatives could be a lot worse (like another referendum or GE).

I think another referendum is a bad idea. As much as it would be great to reverse it all, I don't think the demons would go back in the box quiet that easily. Much better to accept this deal and then work on it in the future, via general elections and part manifestos - one way or the other (moving further or closer to the UK). As for a general election, that would also be terrible. As much as Labour have several proposals that I agree with - renationalising the railways for a start, I don't trust them on defence or security.

The main disappointment for me however, is the document didn't mention anything about science cooperation. I hope this is something worked in later, as it's important aspect of the UK tech sector, and our collaboration with the other EU members on science is also an important aspect of why the UK is a world powerhouse for its outputs. This can continue - we may not be able to direct it as we do as members, but there are ways we can still be involved in projects - the lack of requirements for short-term visas will also facilitate this, so hopefully people can still work between several countries at once (E.g. between the UK and Germany etc) which is probably more common than people realise.
 
This is all very entertaining and fun isn't it...:boogie:

When does civil war II: electric boogaloo kick off and who are the roundheads?
 

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I'm not sure a change if PM will make much of a difference. The boarder issues, the need to satisfy so many different parties and the fact that time is ticking means a new PM really has little movement to do anything.

My gut feeling is the No Deal will become the de-facto solution. Industry and business that has been holding off will start their contingency plans, statements at AGMs, notices to the markets - all that good stuff. Airlines will warn customers that come April there is no guarantee they will fly, people rushing to get their online travel authorization (not a visa but the same as the eTA or ETA that you get over here), pound vs Euro reducing spending power for peoples holidays, mobile companies wanting people they will pay a pretty penny for roaming.

All the things that sat hidden in the corner will come to the fore.

People will start to question if it is worth it. The Tories will still rip themselves apart as negotiations struggle.

Then there will be something - that unknown-unknown - which will spark people. Then it becomes a question of bin it or go for it.

My money is on bin it. Either a "people vote" or by the EU offering to suspend/cancel the Art 50.

No matter what happens the country is fucked and it will be a bloodless civil war for sometime.

As they say "you broke it, you fix it"
 
I'm not sure a change if PM will make much of a difference. The boarder issues, the need to satisfy so many different parties and the fact that time is ticking means a new PM really has little movement to do anything.

My gut feeling is the No Deal will become the de-facto solution. Industry and business that has been holding off will start their contingency plans, statements at AGMs, notices to the markets - all that good stuff. Airlines will warn customers that come April there is no guarantee they will fly, people rushing to get their online travel authorization (not a visa but the same as the eTA or ETA that you get over here), pound vs Euro reducing spending power for peoples holidays, mobile companies wanting people they will pay a pretty penny for roaming.

All the things that sat hidden in the corner will come to the fore.

People will start to question if it is worth it. The Tories will still rip themselves apart as negotiations struggle.

Then there will be something - that unknown-unknown - which will spark people. Then it becomes a question of bin it or go for it.

My money is on bin it. Either a "people vote" or by the EU offering to suspend/cancel the Art 50.

No matter what happens the country is fucked and it will be a bloodless civil war for sometime.

As they say "you broke it, you fix it"
I think you’re dead on with that. I just caught a BBC interview with one of the resigned who said he was comfortable with a “no deal” Brexit. Perhaps that’s what he had been angling for all the time.
 
I think you’re dead on with that. I just caught a BBC interview with one of the resigned who said he was comfortable with a “no deal” Brexit. Perhaps that’s what he had been angling for all the time.
Fwiw, any deal (or no deal) has to be approved by Parliament. There is no indication that the HoC will approve a 'no deal'.
Most MPs are Remainers which means that they may use a prospective no deal to insist upon something like a second referendum. There were even rumours last evening about moderate Tories and Labour types forming a national government in the event of May falling.
Parliament is remain HQ, despite what is said about honouring the result of the referendum. Although May's deal is awful, it is in part a result of her trying to create something which, in her mind at least, stood some chance of becoming law and keeping remain MPs happy-ish.
What a mess.
 
So, if parliament rejects this deal that it surely will. Possible scenarios,

In my view, either PMTM will threaten or call for a GE or punt it back to the people.

JRM etc might collect 48 letters and initiate a no confidence vote. PMTM will probably survive this because most moderste Tory MPs will recognise that a new PM doesn't change anything, and they almost certainly won't give an ERG loon the job. They'll try this regardless to eat up precious parliamentary time

Or judging by the enormous cheer PMTM got from mentioning a no-brexit parliament will from both sides threaten or actually force acno confidence vote to bring down the government and force a referendum.

Any other theories?
 
So, if parliament rejects this deal that it surely will. Possible scenarios,

In my view, either PMTM will threaten or call for a GE or punt it back to the people.

JRM etc might collect 48 letters and initiate a no confidence vote. PMTM will probably survive this because most moderste Tory MPs will recognise that a new PM doesn't change anything, and they almost certainly won't give an ERG loon the job. They'll try this regardless to eat up precious parliamentary time

Or judging by the enormous cheer PMTM got from mentioning a no-brexit parliament will from both sides threaten or actually force acno confidence vote to bring down the government and force a referendum.

Any other theories?
6 possible ways forward?

Six possible scenarios in light of Theresa May's Brexit deal
 
I predict a diluted/watered down WA that is even more complex than the current 585.


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So, if parliament rejects this deal that it surely will. Possible scenarios,

In my view, either PMTM will threaten or call for a GE or punt it back to the people.

JRM etc might collect 48 letters and initiate a no confidence vote. PMTM will probably survive this because most moderste Tory MPs will recognise that a new PM doesn't change anything, and they almost certainly won't give an ERG loon the job. They'll try this regardless to eat up precious parliamentary time

Or judging by the enormous cheer PMTM got from mentioning a no-brexit parliament will from both sides threaten or actually force acno confidence vote to bring down the government and force a referendum.

Any other theories?
Theory: your last para, or some way parliament can create a 'Things are so bad we need a fresh mandate. How sad' situation.
In that context, Tory MPs trying to replace May is a risk as it would create great uncertainty (much to the alarm of markets) and would allow the new leader to be painted as someone who, not having been endorsed in a GE, had no moral mandate to lead 'at such a critical time'.
Add to that the EU possibly refusing to renegotiate - why would they as this deal is so good for them? - and a vote to pause leaving (which the EU would not object to) and have a second ref seems, to me, more likely. The challenge for remain MPs is achieving that whilst appearing to 'respect the result of the referendum'.
 
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The majority of those that sit in the HoC have always wanted to remain. The mainstream media is endlessly pushing to remain with a constant flow of scare stories, skewed reporting and opinion pushing. What is being overlooked in all this I believe, is the quiet majority of the population that voted to leave. They are being paid lip service only. There is a belief that the tide is turning in favour of another vote or bin Bexit altogether and that If you stamp your foot about it, tweet about it, post about it and shout about it enough then it will happen. Underestimating the will of those that voted to leave would be a massive mistake, because if we are made to vote again, or if Brexit doesn’t happen in anything but name only then the implications could be a lot more serious than a stern letter to the Telegraph.
 
The majority of those that sit in the HoC have always wanted to remain. The mainstream media is endlessly pushing to remain with a constant flow of scare stories, skewed reporting and opinion pushing. What is being overlooked in all this I believe, is the quiet majority of the population that voted to leave. They are being paid lip service only. There is a belief that the tide is turning in favour of another vote or bin Bexit altogether and that If you stamp your foot about it, tweet about it, post about it and shout about it enough then it will happen. Underestimating the will of those that voted to leave would be a massive mistake, because if we are made to vote again, or if Brexit doesn’t happen in anything but name only then the implications could be a lot more serious than a stern letter to the Telegraph.
Ignoring the 52% isn’t an option despite the Westminster, most but not all MSM & CBI being remain.

If PMTM didn’t follow it through the poll tax riots would be nothing compared to the repercussions.


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