Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Perhaps I misrepresented it, but it's not that it swayed 6% of people to vote remain.

Basically in a nutshell

There is a number of variables that account for each voter - such as education; gender; certain personality types. (Now this isn't stereotyping anyone, it's just how it is). (the R output even shows little stars next to the variables to show which ones are statistically significant or not).

And each of those variables will add towards the probability that the person will vote a certain way (leave is used here just because it was the most common outcome).

What this guy is claiming, is that on average, when you keep everything the exact same between voters who had a certain personality type (I think he said risk averse or something similar), those who claimed to have read the leaflet were 3 percentage points less likely to vote leave, than those who didn't read the leaflet.

Whilst this isn't a great amount, if you think of the 1000s of voters who would have been on the threshold, that probably actually prevented a lot of people from reaching the threshold to vote leave.

This sort of stuff is a bit new to me - when being applied to things like democracy anyway.

I covered this stuff during undergrad and taught it, but usually it was fairly unimportant stuff (like is someone going to do thing A as opposed to thing B, will someone buy a record etc).

Since doing this MiT course (which is accessible to anyone btw - I really recommend it to people, as it's like opening another world) I've seen how this stuff has been used for really powerful things, like predicting if someone will break parole, predicting if someone has had good health care from their medical bills, predicting the outcome of elections, and even predicting the outcome of court cases.

So in a nutshell, having learnt about the predictive power of these models these past 4/5 weeks I completely believe his report that his model claims that the leaflet had a small, significant influence on how people voted :)
Reminds me of a scene in one of the star wars novels.

One of princess leia's sides comes in with a set of scales and weights. It's traditional on his planet to weigh up decisions. She tells him to rod off, as the same system had caused this planet to not get involved with the rebel alliance. His come back was 'ahh, but we made a slight mistake in weighting (something or other)'.

I'm sure it's a valuable tool but we should remember the cause of the Butlerian jihad in Dune.
“Owing to the seductive nature of machines, we assume that technological advances are always improvements and always beneficial to humans.”
― Brian Herbert, The Butlerian Jihad

I suppose minority report could also feature.
 

It’s Irish Politics 101

Made a bad economic call? ‘It’s all the fault of the English!’


The idea that basic totally in line with international norms border checks will send ireland into civil war is simply laughable. Dublin seems to have conveniently forgotten, the border checks brought in after 1922 were brought in by DeValeras protectionist Dublin Government, not Britain.
 
It’s Irish Politics 101

Made a bad economic call? ‘It’s all the fault of the English!’


The idea that basic totally in line with international norms border checks will send ireland into civil war is simply laughable. Dublin seems to have conveniently forgotten, the border checks brought in after 1922 were brought in by DeValeras protectionist Dublin Government, not Britain.
Which were responded to in kind by the UK

And sure no one was ever killed along the border because there was a border
 
It’s Irish Politics 101

Made a bad economic call? ‘It’s all the fault of the English!’


The idea that basic totally in line with international norms border checks will send ireland into civil war is simply laughable. Dublin seems to have conveniently forgotten, the border checks brought in after 1922 were brought in by DeValeras protectionist Dublin Government, not Britain.
Ireland has been on the up since joining the EU.

Why would they throw their prosperity away for the UK, with all the distasteful implications of overlordship that entails?

Ireland can mitigate some of the damage by being a English speaking gateway to the EU for services.

As I'm sure they realise.
 
Which were responded to in kind by the UK

And sure no one was ever killed along the border because there was a border

Well, perhaps someone should sit little Leo down and explain to him with small words and big pictures what happened last time Dublin picked a trade war with Britain.
 
Ireland has been on the up since joining the EU.

Why would they throw their prosperity away for the UK, with all the distasteful implications of overlordship that entails?

Ireland can mitigate some of the damage by being a English speaking gateway to the EU for services.

As I'm sure they realise.
Well, when you are the 2nd poorest country in Europe in 1973, only Portugal, another highly religious protofascist State, was poorer, the only way was up.
But that wasn’t thanks to the EEC/EU cockbag, that was thanks to DeValera dying avd ireland dropping it’s insane protectionist avd anti British policies that had sent it from prosperity to poverty in a generation after independence.
Ireland’s poverty in 1973 was 100% self inflicted - and made cross border smuggling the essential economic safety valve that kept the country working.

Well, next economic crash, Dublin can get all the funds from its best bezzers in Brussels at punitive rates.


Varadkar is allowing Ireland to be used as a useful idiot by the European Union, a stick to try and beat the UK.

Well, from next year, Ireland’s two biggest trading partners by far will be outside the E.U., avd Ireland’s percentage of inter E.U. trade will be the lowest if any E.U. member state. It’s also going to be the only English speaking state, the only one driving on the left and the only one without a napoleonic legal system and it’s still going to be stuck out there in the Atlantic.
 
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You and your new best button smasher seem very angry irlsgt, but yet again, dig whistle anti English sentiment in Dublin had made some very short sighted political choices.

Once this is all over, Brussels will finish you off, the last remaining English speaking 1% of the E.U.
 

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