Brexit Phase Two - Trade


1:08 - some punter declaring it was made quite clear that it was only a consultative referendum.
1:18 - some bird saying 'of course it can be stopped, the referendum was a advisory vote'.

take it away David...

We need to allow some time for that to happen – and help to shape the future of the European Union, so that when the choice comes it will be a real one.

A real choice between leaving or being part of a new settlement
It is time for the British people to have their say. It is time to settle this European question in British politics.

I say to the British people: this will be your decision.

And when that choice comes, you will have an important choice to make about our country's destiny.
At the end of that debate you, the British people, will decide.
David Cameron's EU speech - full text 23/01/2013.
 
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You advocate the best way to create opportunities is to give away those opportunities to itinerant passers-by?

You should rent a bus and get your message out there; this, I feel, could be the turning point.
Does it get confusing logging in and out of these accounts all the time Dan?
 
good job you can't marry in to wealth.

by the by. She found a suitable partnership post spice girls, post short solo stint.
let's assume the spice girls represent the eu.
I think you'll find that you've nicked that off @Purple_Flash - Nul points.
 
Actually my bad (as in, he wasn't a lord - there was a baroness present though).

He has a knighthood, not a lordship. This is him: Andrew Cook (businessman) - Wikipedia

Obviously as people like Wordsmith have claimed - he knows nothing about business. Unlike Wordsmith who knows all about machine learning, business, and aviation. And it's actually Poland he's relocating part of his factory to - not to far off the mark considering I watched this video back in April, and left as soon as it finished because it bored me to tears.
Yep

I blame Brexit

Sir Andrew Cook praises North East division despite parent firm making loss

Sorry for the interregnum, I was working, but on the stats front you outgun me considerably, I have but A and AS level maths and a bit of time dealing with the MOD polling to draw on, so in this case I bow to your geater statistical prowess.

That said, do you therefore feel that the 6% swayed by the brochure is a realistic figure?
 

You couldn't script this sh*t...

1:40 - 'are they thinking about the country or their own careers?' RemaINed a are concerned those involved in the negotiations are more interested in their own careers. We'll assume that those negotiating Lisbon and Maastricht Tec weren't looking to get on the gravy train.

2:40 - remainer s don't agree with how things are going. Yet over the years they didn't give much of a sh*t about other people's concerns.

3:12 - remainer s have been forgotten (if only), still i suppose it's better than being ignored for decades.

She even got a 'wait and see' in there. Must be a remain thing.
 
So big protest march over the weekend.
Now here's a question. Why doesn't the entire NHS staff get on the streets and protest that the £40billlion pounds the EU want to screw out of us should be kept and given to the NHS? It's tax payers' money (not the goverment's)
For that matter why isn't every tax payer in the UK out there too.
Where does the money go? Just take a trip to Luxembourg and see the monumental EU building spree, all EU admin building plus 12,000 high spec homes for EU "operatives" as the quide will tell you with self satisfied glee. Stuff our fellow EU citizens, they are not in the equation.
And in 2012 the EU wine cellar had 42,789 bottles of red, white and sparkling wine in stock, and 2000+ bottles of spirits. Heaven knows how much they've drunk since then and how many more deliveries have been made.
And another point. How do remainers justify the claim that half a million people are going to loose their jobs after Brexit? Everytime we make another move towards Brexit the economy gets better.
Labour claim nurses are relying on food banks. So why are not all pensioners, (and I am a pensioner) teachers ..... and everyone else on modest wages not attending food banks. My wife is a NHS health care assistant, part time, We spend carefully, have an allotment, cook our own food (never get food poisoning) etc. Yes it sounds boring, but we are not. We just live within our means. It is not that difficult
If things are so tough in Britain (the Great Austerity) why are millions still trying to get here?
Okay, I've finished my moan.
But just to finish, Britain got its name Great Britain for good reasons, time we lived up to our heritage. Pity the Channel isn't wider.
Top post and I gave it a like, I couldn't resist to see who gave it the dumb post... Your starters for ten..
 
Yep

Sorry for the interregnum, I was working, but on the stats front you outgun me considerably, I have but A and AS level maths and a bit of time dealing with the MOD polling to draw on, so in this case I bow to your geater statistical prowess.

That said, do you therefore feel that the 6% swayed by the brochure is a realistic figure?

Perhaps I misrepresented it, but it's not that it swayed 6% of people to vote remain.

Basically in a nutshell

There is a number of variables that account for each voter - such as education; gender; certain personality types. (Now this isn't stereotyping anyone, it's just how it is). (the R output even shows little stars next to the variables to show which ones are statistically significant or not).

And each of those variables will add towards the probability that the person will vote a certain way (leave is used here just because it was the most common outcome).

What this guy is claiming, is that on average, when you keep everything the exact same between voters who had a certain personality type (I think he said risk averse or something similar), those who claimed to have read the leaflet were 3 percentage points less likely to vote leave, than those who didn't read the leaflet.

Whilst this isn't a great amount, if you think of the 1000s of voters who would have been on the threshold, that probably actually prevented a lot of people from reaching the threshold to vote leave.

This sort of stuff is a bit new to me - when being applied to things like democracy anyway.

I covered this stuff during undergrad and taught it, but usually it was fairly unimportant stuff (like is someone going to do thing A as opposed to thing B, will someone buy a record etc).

Since doing this MiT course (which is accessible to anyone btw - I really recommend it to people, as it's like opening another world) I've seen how this stuff has been used for really powerful things, like predicting if someone will break parole, predicting if someone has had good health care from their medical bills, predicting the outcome of elections, and even predicting the outcome of court cases.

So in a nutshell, having learnt about the predictive power of these models these past 4/5 weeks I completely believe his report that his model claims that the leaflet had a small, significant influence on how people voted :)
 
Doesn't really take away from the point in anyway though does it...
Why is it when you've been found wanting on your "intellectuality" you think you can just bounce it off as no importance? It's not the first time your fascination with yourself has been proven as bull excretia but I must admit that your so full of it you probably don't realise how pathetic you, and your new side kick, are.
 
Why is it when you've been found wanting on your "intellectuality" you think you can just bounce it off as no importance? It's not the first time your fascination with yourself has been proven as bull excretia but I must admit that your so full of it you probably don't realise how pathetic you, and your new side kick, are.
Why is it important that I got the country and his title mixed up (germany v poland, Lord vs Sir?)? The main point is there was a guy who owns a factory, who told his men jobs would lost if the overall vote was leave. He said at the discussion that he was setting up another arm of his operation in Poland, because most of his exports are sent to Germany and it meant his supply line wouldn't get held up in the event of a worse-case Brexit.

Why does my posting about this event (which happened over the space of a rather boring hour or two back in April) upset you so much?
 
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Why is it when you've been found wanting on your "intellectuality" you think you can just bounce it off as no importance? It's not the first time your fascination with yourself has been proven as bull excretia but I must admit that your so full of it you probably don't realise how pathetic you, and your new side kick, are.
It's you that comes off a bit odd, if I may say so.

You only ever pipe up to take a pop at the remain posters.

Strange chap
 

You couldn't script this sh*t...

1:40 - 'are they thinking about the country or their own careers?' RemaINed a are concerned those involved in the negotiations are more interested in their own careers. We'll assume that those negotiating Lisbon and Maastricht Tec weren't looking to get on the gravy train.

2:40 - remainer s don't agree with how things are going. Yet over the years they didn't give much of a sh*t about other people's concerns.

3:12 - remainer s have been forgotten (if only), still i suppose it's better than being ignored for decades.

She even got a 'wait and see' in there. Must be a remain thing.

As I say, I watched this. I thought it was waste of a couple of hours I'll never get back and I also never felt more removed from pro-EU people than I did at that showing.
 
As I say, I watched this. I thought it was waste of a couple of hours I'll never get back and I also never felt more removed from pro-EU people than I did at that showing.
Who are you and what have you done with @amazing_lobster?

Sent from my SM-N910F using Tapatalk
 
Perhaps I misrepresented it, but it's not that it swayed 6% of people to vote remain.

Basically in a nutshell

There is a number of variables that account for each voter - such as education; gender; certain personality types. (Now this isn't stereotyping anyone, it's just how it is). (the R output even shows little stars next to the variables to show which ones are statistically significant or not).

And each of those variables will add towards the probability that the person will vote a certain way (leave is used here just because it was the most common outcome).

What this guy is claiming, is that on average, when you keep everything the exact same between voters who had a certain personality type (I think he said risk averse or something similar), those who claimed to have read the leaflet were 3 percentage points less likely to vote leave, than those who didn't read the leaflet.

Whilst this isn't a great amount, if you think of the 1000s of voters who would have been on the threshold, that probably actually prevented a lot of people from reaching the threshold to vote leave.

This sort of stuff is a bit new to me - when being applied to things like democracy anyway.

I covered this stuff during undergrad and taught it, but usually it was fairly unimportant stuff (like is someone going to do thing A as opposed to thing B, will someone buy a record etc).

Since doing this MiT course (which is accessible to anyone btw - I really recommend it to people, as it's like opening another world) I've seen how this stuff has been used for really powerful things, like predicting if someone will break parole, predicting if someone has had good health care from their medical bills, predicting the outcome of elections, and even predicting the outcome of court cases.

So in a nutshell, having learnt about the predictive power of these models these past 4/5 weeks I completely believe his report that his model claims that the leaflet had a small, significant influence on how people voted :)
And I simply wondered whether, in the light of the difficulties of being sufficiently precise at the outset (such as defining "a certain personality type") conclusions based on such a small margin were/are meaningful.
 
And I simply wondered whether, in the light of the difficulties of being sufficiently precise at the outset (such as defining "a certain personality type") conclusions based on such a small margin were/are meaningful.
I think it helps to understand why a 3 percent change is meaningful, and how impactful that can be, if you understand how the model works and the predictive power of it.
 

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