Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I attended a talk from a factory owner in the North (a Lord, can't remember the name) who said he spoke to each of his men personally before the vote and said if they voted leave, jobs would be lost.

He said they still voted leave, and now because of Brexit he's moving part of his operation to Germany and some of them will lose their jobs. Although he's doing his best to try and minimise this by keeping some of his operation here. A real shame in my opinion.
So:
  1. Moving before the Brexit settlement is known. He's going to look a right chump if it does turn out to be BRINO.
  2. Moving part of his operation to Germany - meaning that he's going to have to strip out part of his equipment, ship it to Germany and reinstall it, incurring significant costs, plus buy a factory there and train a new work force.
  3. Being on the wrong end of a 'buy British' campaign after Brexit, potentially hitting sales. I'm sure competitors that haven't relocated will shout that from the rooftops.
Looks like a smart businessman.

Wordsmith
 
As I've posted before, Call Me Dave turned out to be one of Vote Leave's secret weapons. I talked to a right mixture of leave and remain supporters on the doorstep. Irrespective of how they intended to vote, both sides thought CMD was demeaning his office. The general opinion I got was the the brochure was regarded as too partisan to be a significant influence in the decision, while voters regarded CMD's increasingly hysterical behaviour as demeaning of the office of Prime Minister.

Had he behaved with more gravitas during the campaign, he might have influenced more people. A good tactic would have been to stay aloof from the campaign until the final day of two, then make a single heavyweight statement. That might have had a real influence on the result.

Wordsmith
But that can't be true. He made a 6% difference. A Clever Chap said so.
 
So:
  1. Moving before the Brexit settlement is known. He's going to look a right chump if it does turn out to be BRINO.
  2. Moving part of his operation to Germany - meaning that he's going to have to strip out part of his equipment, ship it to Germany and reinstall it, incurring significant costs, plus buy a factory there and train a new work force.
  3. Being on the wrong end of a 'buy British' campaign after Brexit, potentially hitting sales. I'm sure competitors that haven't relocated will shout that from the rooftops.
Looks like a smart businessman.

Wordsmith
looks more like an excuse to downsize to me.
 
is that so?

so enlighten me and answer my previous question.

Well you clearly don't understand how a stats 101 concept like Logistic regression works (which is what a decision tree is based on) - evident by your comment about how does the model calculate the percentage of a variable to contribute towards the binary - so this doesn't seem like a debate to me - more like you need to be taught something for the first time, which is a bit different to a debate...

Alas this is a good place to start (as you see each corresponding value of the dependant variable (Xi) is multiplied by it's associated coefficient (Bi) (which can be positive or negative):


 
Well you clearly don't understand how a stats 101 concept like Logistic regression works (which is what a decision tree is based on) - evident by your comment - so this doesn't seem like a debate to me - more like you need to be taught something for the first time, which is a bit different to a debate...
just answer the question. After all, you have taught the subject.
 
So:
  1. Moving before the Brexit settlement is known. He's going to look a right chump if it does turn out to be BRINO.
  2. Moving part of his operation to Germany - meaning that he's going to have to strip out part of his equipment, ship it to Germany and reinstall it, incurring significant costs, plus buy a factory there and train a new work force.
  3. Being on the wrong end of a 'buy British' campaign after Brexit, potentially hitting sales. I'm sure competitors that haven't relocated will shout that from the rooftops.
Looks like a smart businessman.

Wordsmith
Not to mention 'spoke to each of his men personally before the vote and said if they voted leave, jobs would be lost'. If the story is true he is a grade 1 tosspot
 
Well you clearly don't understand how a stats 101 concept like Logistic regression works (which is what a decision tree is based on) - evident by your comment about how does the model calculate the percentage of a variable to contribute towards the binary - so this doesn't seem like a debate to me - more like you need to be taught something for the first time, which is a bit different to a debate...

Alas this is a good place to start (as you see each corresponding value of the dependant variable (Xi) is multiplied by it's associated coefficient (Bi)):


----- cleans a big big carpet for less than half a crown, sorry that was 1001
 
just answer the question. After all, you have taught the subject.
I've just attached the equation. Should make all the sense. If you want to work out the value of beta-coefficents by hand, there are videos on youtube teaching you how.

If you want to go through his personally, then we can arrange a paid tutorial over Skype.
 
Well you clearly don't understand how a stats 101 concept like Logistic regression works (which is what a decision tree is based on) - evident by your comment about how does the model calculate the percentage of a variable to contribute towards the binary - so this doesn't seem like a debate to me - more like you need to be taught something for the first time, which is a bit different to a debate...

Alas this is a good place to start:


nice cut and paste. I sense frantic googling. Now what assumptions do you think we're made to convert levels of persuasion to the normal binary choice nature of logistic regression?
 
nice cut and paste. I sense frantic googling. Now what assumptions do you think we're made to convert levels of persuasion to the normal binary choice nature of logistic regression?
The binary choice is 1 == vote leave. You don't have to convert the dependant variables to binary because it already is, so your question doesn't actually make any sense... (persuasion would be a continuous (independent) variable btw - you appear to be talking about it as if it's the outcome/dependant variable).

I'm actually embarrassed for you Trux.
 
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I really recommend the movie money ball - how a low budget baseball team used data to rise to the top of the league, and put together a better team (using data) than people with five times their budget.

The people deriding the results of models they don't understand here, remind me of the coach in the movie who kept saying data is nonsense and I'll field the team my way. Of course, it was to the detriment of performance and when they listened to the expert who didn't actually know anything about baseball coaching, but knew about data, the team won something like 19 games in a row.

Moneyball (film) - Wikipedia
Given the enormous amount of statistical data gathered in American sports for the consumption of nerdy types for decades, it makes sense to use it to optimise performance
the

simply not true. Remember that the NE in particular has seen more challenge and change than most. Brexit will be but a small speed bump for them
Nice pun.

Toyota leaving will be a more long term speed bump. More of an insurmountable sink hole of poverty
 
Sure, I've taught statistics at undergraduate and masters level, currently half way thought a twelve week MiT course on machine learning, and as we sit here I'm trying to make sense of some neural time series data, so it's a topic I'm a bit passionate about.
Ah. Statistics, eh? Lots of numbers and sums and suchlike. I trust your grasp of sums is better than your grasp of speeling.. This twelve week course must be pretty intensive, doesn't leave you much time to spout tripe on here, and swap "likes" with your funny friend.
BTW, Do you specialise in lies, damned lies or.....
 
you probably don't want to put who might be embarrassed to the vote at this point.

Why are you claiming to be an expert on statistics when you clearly don't know anything about statistics?

That was clear the other day when you wrote a load of rubbish about confidence intervals that didn't apply to the topic, as it was just a description of survey data.

And you've just spoken about the independent variable as if it's the dependant variable, and you claim I'm the one who should embarrassed? You absolutely have no idea what you are talking about.

edit:

And by the way - nice use of the word assumption, but I suspect it also means different to what you think it means.
 
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