Brexit Phase Two - Trade

"Thousands"
o_O

 
Not sure if this has been posted before, but it is an interesting perspective:

There’s only one way forward for Theresa May: keep Britain in the customs union | Coffee House

  1. Forget about having any clue when we leave about the nature and structure of the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU. The government heads of the EU27 have rejected Chequers. Wholesale. And they regard it as far too late to put in place the building blocks of that future relationship before we leave on 29 March 2019. So any Political Declaration on the future relationship will be waffly, vague and general. It will be what so many MPs detest: a blind Brexit. The PM may say that won’t happen. No one here (except perhaps her own Downing St team) believes her.
  2. The earliest date for a deal on Brexit terms – that vacuous Political Declaration and the Withdrawal Agreement – is now the Council in mid December. But even that date may prove too challenging.
  3. The gulf between the EU27 and May, as you know, is over how to keep open the Northern Ireland border. There is no chance of the EU abandoning its insistence that there should be a backstop – with no expiry date – of Northern Ireland, but not Great Britain, remaining in the Customs Union and the single market. That would involve the introduction of the commercial border in the Irish Sea that May says must never be drawn.
  4. All efforts therefore from the UK are aimed at putting in place other arrangements to make it impossible for that backstop to be introduced.
  5. Her ruse for doing this is the creation of another backstop that would involve the whole of the UK staying in something that looks like the customs union.
  6. But she feels cannot commit to keeping the UK in the customs union forever, because her Brexiter MPs won’t let her. So it does not work as a backstop. And anyway the Article 50 rules say that the Withdrawal Agreement must not contain provisions for a permanent trading relationship between the whole of the UK and the EU. Which is a hideous Catch 22.
  7. There is a solution. She could ignore her Brexiter critics and announce the UK wanted written into the Political Declaration – as opposed to the Withdrawal Agreement – that we would be staying permanently in the customs union. This is one bit of specificity the rest of the EU would allow into the Political Declaration. And it could be nodded at in the Withdrawal Agreement.
  8. But if she announces we are staying in the Customs Union she would be crossing her reddest of red lines because she would have to abandon her ambition of negotiating free trade deals with non-EU countries. Liam Fox would be made redundant.
  9. She knows, because her Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins has told her, that her best chance – probably her only chance of securing a Brexit deal – is to sign up for the customs union.
  10. In its absence, no-deal Brexit is massively in play.
  11. But a customs-union Brexit deal would see her Brexiter MPs become incandescent with fury.
  12. Labour of course would be on the spot, since its one practical Brexit policy is to stay in the Customs Union.
  13. This therefore is May’s Robert Peel moment. She could agree a Customs Union Brexit and get it through Parliament with Labour support – while simultaneously cleaving her own party in two.
  14. It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal.
  15. Which will May choose? Ultimately this is her choice, and hers alone. It is her moment in history.

I'm not sure that I agree with point 13. above - Labour could equally split on the issue because those Labour MPs that voted for May would be seen as voting against a confidence vote leading to an early General Election. I've just come back from a week in Northern Ireland and I detected no indications whatsoever that the DUP were going to back down.
but as you know the Customs union comes in two parts, the tax part-which we pay anyway and this freakish control of trade deals, which is really nothing to do with it. That in itself is nothing to do with the common/single market, when you split it down. There is not a thing in the single market that requires membership of a customs Union only that the relevant taxes are paid. That's the importers not the exporters.
 
Ironic isn't it?
What, that they're allowed to march? I'm happy for anyone to exercise their democratic rights in a legal and peaceful way.
 
Then why the effort to turn back time by remainers?
As I've said, I'm not in favour of a second referendum but you appear to believe that it's OK for some people to spend decades campaigning to turn back a result but not OK for others to spend a couple of years at it.
 
I wonder why the counter protest wasn't as large. Not enough mobility scooter charging points perhaps?
Or maybe they already achieved their democratic duty and left it at the result.
 
I merely reminded our excited poster that the march has an order of magnitude to go before it even gets close to the levels of engagement recorded for posterity.

I know that you would dearly love to see a groundswell/shift in public opinion/tipping point but it has not happened yet and (in relative terms) a few folks out and about in Our Nations Capital changes that not one iota.

In my opinion.
Do you normally expect marches to match the electorate turnout for one side? You're destined to be forever disappointed.
 
True

It has shown itself to be venal, unhelpful, unreconstructed and totally undemocratic and fixated on a punitive approach to the UK. Nice to know how valued we were.

In my opinion.
You talking about the Conservative party there?
 
You really are posting rubbish today, have you been at the brandy? Or have you just slipped on your trolling cape, an action you appear to be doing more often these days?
Cheers McTroll.
 
Not sure if this has been posted before, but it is an interesting perspective:

There’s only one way forward for Theresa May: keep Britain in the customs union | Coffee House

  1. Forget about having any clue when we leave about the nature and structure of the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU. The government heads of the EU27 have rejected Chequers. Wholesale. And they regard it as far too late to put in place the building blocks of that future relationship before we leave on 29 March 2019. So any Political Declaration on the future relationship will be waffly, vague and general. It will be what so many MPs detest: a blind Brexit. The PM may say that won’t happen. No one here (except perhaps her own Downing St team) believes her.
  2. The earliest date for a deal on Brexit terms – that vacuous Political Declaration and the Withdrawal Agreement – is now the Council in mid December. But even that date may prove too challenging.
  3. The gulf between the EU27 and May, as you know, is over how to keep open the Northern Ireland border. There is no chance of the EU abandoning its insistence that there should be a backstop – with no expiry date – of Northern Ireland, but not Great Britain, remaining in the Customs Union and the single market. That would involve the introduction of the commercial border in the Irish Sea that May says must never be drawn.
  4. All efforts therefore from the UK are aimed at putting in place other arrangements to make it impossible for that backstop to be introduced.
  5. Her ruse for doing this is the creation of another backstop that would involve the whole of the UK staying in something that looks like the customs union.
  6. But she feels cannot commit to keeping the UK in the customs union forever, because her Brexiter MPs won’t let her. So it does not work as a backstop. And anyway the Article 50 rules say that the Withdrawal Agreement must not contain provisions for a permanent trading relationship between the whole of the UK and the EU. Which is a hideous Catch 22.
  7. There is a solution. She could ignore her Brexiter critics and announce the UK wanted written into the Political Declaration – as opposed to the Withdrawal Agreement – that we would be staying permanently in the customs union. This is one bit of specificity the rest of the EU would allow into the Political Declaration. And it could be nodded at in the Withdrawal Agreement.
  8. But if she announces we are staying in the Customs Union she would be crossing her reddest of red lines because she would have to abandon her ambition of negotiating free trade deals with non-EU countries. Liam Fox would be made redundant.
  9. She knows, because her Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins has told her, that her best chance – probably her only chance of securing a Brexit deal – is to sign up for the customs union.
  10. In its absence, no-deal Brexit is massively in play.
  11. But a customs-union Brexit deal would see her Brexiter MPs become incandescent with fury.
  12. Labour of course would be on the spot, since its one practical Brexit policy is to stay in the Customs Union.
  13. This therefore is May’s Robert Peel moment. She could agree a Customs Union Brexit and get it through Parliament with Labour support – while simultaneously cleaving her own party in two.
  14. It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal.
  15. Which will May choose? Ultimately this is her choice, and hers alone. It is her moment in history.

I'm not sure that I agree with point 13. above - Labour could equally split on the issue because those Labour MPs that voted for May would be seen as voting against a confidence vote leading to an early General Election. I've just come back from a week in Northern Ireland and I detected no indications whatsoever that the DUP were going to back down.
The extremes of both parties have too much power, that of the Conservatives totally disproportionate to its size.
 
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Slovakia is doing immensely well.

I went there a couple of years ago, landed at a mint airport, transferred by luxury Mercedes taxi on immaculate roads, crossing pristine bridges in traffic boasting nothing but new vehicles, the least of which were new Skodas.

The hotel I stayed in was the best ever, and the ski resort infrastructure was a match for anything you'll find in the Alps.

The only down side was the delicious scran and ridiculously cheap beer at 90cents a pint.
The point I was making. Newly independent countries can thrive in the EU.

If this train crash continues we could well lose Scotland and NI. Plenty on here who wave their flags have said that they don't GAF. Go figure.
 
Isn't it about time for our dear readers that Bozo, Mogo and Farago actually broke cover and did something?
 

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