Brexit Phase Two - Trade

I see Macron the Midget is ratcheting up the RoI/NoI border again.

A cynic might think the French are worried about the UK leaving EUtopia as we won’t be the end destination fir al, the Doctorrs, Teachers avd Scientists they turn a blind eye to making for the Channel
 
It's a shame that the chief economist of Deutche bank has more faith in the UK, than what many British have themselves.
Lets hope he's learned eh?

Folkerts-Landau viewed the sub-prime mortgage crisis as the result of fraud rather than financial innovation such as CDOs. In May 2008, he argued that the international monetary system was well placed to withstand the sub-prime crisis, and that a pessimistic outcome was not credible

David Folkerts-Landau - Wikipedia
 
Bugger mate !
Some people will never ever comprehend the British psyche.
Mainly these who are on here all day.........
Every day.......

That's now way to speak about Auld Yin and PhotEx
 
No surprise actually.

Present leave voters with evidence that shows their thing is unworkable, and they all ignore it and shout words like traitor etc.

Present them with evidence that due to natural wastage (e.g. death) by the time we come to leave, the outcome will not represent the voter demographic, and they all start to cry and whinge, and do anything but address the point.
I have followed your outpourings for a page or three whilst catching up (some of us work you know). Your propensity for dancing on the head of a pin is legendary, and so is your most un-scientist like habit of confusing fact with opinion.

The voting demographic, and the changes to it over time could be described as fact (give or take). But voting intentions, or rather the prediction of, are not.

Ascribing fact-like qualities to such descriptions is, as we truckies say, pseudoscientific bollox.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
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We tend to finish wars, rather than start them.
Thought that was the Septics, always late for the show. In both WW 1 & 2 it was the UK that declared war on Germany.

What could be said is we finish what we start! :cool:
 
Indeed, this one in particular.

There is technology for a frictionless border BUT only for a border where no one is going to try and do any smuggling. The Technology relies on people being honest and not trying to circumvent it. So for legitimate businesses who are being honest it will save on paperwork.

Also the geography of the NI border makes it very difficult (impossible) to implement without changing the border. Which is a non starter.

So you can have have a frictionless high-tech border if you change the layout of the border and no one trys smuggling.... This why everyone bar the fantasists are saying it won't work.
 
I have followed your outpourings for a page or three whilst catching up (some of us work you know). Your propensity for dancing on the head of a pin is legendary, and so is your most un-scientist like habit of confusing fact with opinion.

The voting demographic, and the changes to it over time could be described as fact (give or take). But voting intentions, or rather the prediction of, are not.

Ascribing fact-like qualities to such descriptions is, as we truckies say, pseudoscientific bollox.

Its alwaysr opinion dear chap, its just a matter of how much the opinion is supported by the observed data.
 
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Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
So you can have have a frictionless high-tech border if you change the layout of the border and no one trys smuggling.... This why everyone bar the fantasists are saying it won't work.
Given the level of some of the EU import tariffs (on say food to protect the CAP) and that the UK will have quite an incentive to slash a number of food tariffs (anything we don't grow here), the sheer level of profit that could come from smuggling across the NI/ROI border and then re-exporting from the RoI to the rest of the EU will make smuggling near inevitable.

As it's liable to be one way smuggling, the UK has no interest in putting in anything but a soft border on its side. We can do what's in the UK's interests and leave the EU to sort out their own problems,.

As I've said before, the UK's problems will largely be over within a year or 18 months of Brexit.

The EU's Brexit related problems are going to go on for far longer. For example, given the economic turbulence expected immediately after Brexit, the government is sure to go for some populist measures like slashing import tariffs on some foods (and bringing down prices accordingly) and binning some unpopular measures - like immediate access to benefits for economic migrants.

Which will result in a lot of EU states saying "why can't we do that?"

Wordsmith
 
There is technology for a frictionless border BUT only for a border where no one is going to try and do any smuggling. The Technology relies on people being honest and not trying to circumvent it. So for legitimate businesses who are being honest it will save on paperwork.

Also the geography of the NI border makes it very difficult (impossible) to implement without changing the border. Which is a non starter.

So you can have have a frictionless high-tech border if you change the layout of the border and no one trys smuggling.... This why everyone bar the fantasists are saying it won't work.


If you'd actually had any experience of Irreland, you'd know that smuggling is and has always been the main industry around the border..
 
If you'd actually had any experience of Irreland, you'd know that smuggling is and has always been the main industry around the border..
Yes I do know. So a technology based frictionless border is unworkable. But you knew that.

This is why the EU has vetoed it as unworkable. However the fantasists who voted to controll the UK borders and control Immigration want no border controls on the only land border with the EU.... priceless.
 
Yes I do know. So a technology based frictionless border is unworkable. But you knew that.

This is why the EU has vetoed it as unworkable. However the fantasists who voted to controll the UK borders and control Immigration want no border controls on the only land border with the EU.... priceless.

Its perfectly workable if the EU was willing to grasp the nettle of the endemic corruption in the RoI government that has condoned smuggling as part and parcel of its economy.
Behind every smuggling racket is a TD
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
There will however eventually be a quasi-hard border on the Irish side. The UK - if it has any sense - will chop import duties to zero on anything we don't actually manufacture or grow in the UK. For example, we don't grow bananas, so why have an import tax on them? Similarly, we no longer manufacture tungsten power in the the UK, so why have an import duty on it?

Goods with zero import duties will be significantly cheaper than the equivalent imported into the EU with EU import tarrifs on it, so I expect there will be substantial smuggling from NI into the ROI, then re-export of goods from the ROI into the EU as 'EU' goods - no import tax on goods moving within the single market. The profits from that will be substantial and the bulk of the fraud will occur in the ROI - hence not a UK problem.

Had the EU not weaponised the Irish border question, I suspect a workable solution could have been found before now. As it is, I suspect the EU is in the process of creating a major headache for itself. Which is a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot.

Wordsmith
Brave new brexit, we’ve people working on a zero hours contract, doing zero hours work. All we have to do now is convince the workforce to work harder and cheaper.

But don’t worry, to teach the Eu a lesson where they won’t give us a by ball, allowing us to trade and ignore their rules, as we’re special.
I’m sure the WTO will allow us to do whatever we want.

Operation Wordsmith, truckloads of goods heading over the border. No the Irish revenue will never spot that one. Especially that unapproved switchbaback out of Newry, (the name of which, entirely escapes me). Blending smoothly with the mass of traffic swirling around and across the border night and day.
I take it you’ve never been or seen it.
 
Yes I do know. So a technology based frictionless border is unworkable. But you knew that.

This is why the EU has vetoed it as unworkable. However the fantasists who voted to controll the UK borders and control Immigration want no border controls on the only land border with the EU.... priceless.
I own an area of land, and have control of its boundaries.

I have exercised that control by fencing off the areas where I wish to limit the movement of livestock.

Whilst other areas remain unfenced, I exercise control by placing warning signs that the land is private.

Some of my land has neither barriers nor signage, as there is no requirement for them, but I still control the boundary, and it's my prerogative as to how that may change in future.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Err...

(My bold)

EU rejects US calls to water down post-Brexit clearing rules
The European Union has rejected US calls to water down new derivatives clearing rules, saying lawmakers would not be "blackmailed". Speaking in Paris, Olivier Guersent, director general of the European Commission’s financial services directorate, said the EU had every right to supervise foreign financial firms in the same way as US regulators.

His comments come in the wake of statements made by US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair Christopher Giancarlo, who threatened to prevent European banks from accessing US futures markets over EU plans for the oversight of foreign clearing houses after Brexit. Mr Guersent said: "My friend Mr Giancarlo is blackmailing legislators". Talking about the CFTC possibly blocking EU banks from accessing US markets, Mr Guersent said: "I don't like it but that is their right."

The tussle for control of a serious chunk of the clearing market has emerged as one of Brexit’s key battlegrounds.
London is the focal point for clearing derivatives in the US dollar and the euro, but the European authorities want all activity in euros to take place within the EU after Brexit.

Some 90pc of the EU-based firms use the UK for interest rate swaps, one of the most common forms of derivative contract.
The bolded section could come back to haunt the EU and cause significant financial problems for the EU in the event of a hard Brexit. Thumbing the EU note at Uncle Sam may also prove to be a red flag to the Trump bull.

This may be a case of where politics collides with the real world and comes off a very bad second best.

Wordsmith
 

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