Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
May not the Tories favourite person at the moment.

Theresa May isolated as party turns on 'chaotic' Brexit plan and EU leaders give her the cold shoulder
Theresa May was on Thursday evening increasingly isolatedover her plan to keep Britain tied to the EU for longer as she was savaged by both wings of her party and left in the cold by EU leaders.

Mrs May confirmed on Thursday that she was prepared to consider extending the transition period - currently due to end in December 2020 - by “a matter of months” in an attempt to break the deadlock over the Northern Ireland border issue. The move enraged Brexiteers who said it would cost billions, and angered members of the Cabinet who said they had not formally agreed the plan before she offered it up as a bargaining chip.
I think May is heading for a situation where the cabinet force a change of tack on her and she has to accept it. (They're stuck with her until March of next year). That will mean a swerve towards Canada Plus, although as a face saver for May, it'll be Called Chequers Mk 3.

It won't be publicly admitted, but I suspect the immediate sacrificial victim will be Ollie Robbins. I suspect he's regarded as May's evil genius. With him out of the way, and May as a puppet with the cabinet pulling the strings, I suspect we might finally get a sensible policy.

We'll know Robbins has gone when we hear that @History_Man is in intensive care in hospital as a result of laughing with glee for 4 hours no-stop.

Wordsmith
 
Juncker and Varadkar; no hard border - under any circumstances - in the event of a no deal Brexit:


Hugh Bennet's analysis:


Roughly, why is the EU potentially jeopardising Brexit negotiations over the border issue, when if the negotiations fail, they're not going to put a border there anyway? So why don't they compromise a little on it?
 
Roughly, why is the EU potentially jeopardising Brexit negotiations over the border issue, when if the negotiations fail, they're not going to put a border there anyway? So why don't they compromise a little on it?
Because it is, and always was, a massive negotiating red-herring.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Because it is, and always was, a massive negotiating red-herring.
There will however eventually be a quasi-hard border on the Irish side. The UK - if it has any sense - will chop import duties to zero on anything we don't actually manufacture or grow in the UK. For example, we don't grow bananas, so why have an import tax on them? Similarly, we no longer manufacture tungsten power in the the UK, so why have an import duty on it?

Goods with zero import duties will be significantly cheaper than the equivalent imported into the EU with EU import tarrifs on it, so I expect there will be substantial smuggling from NI into the ROI, then re-export of goods from the ROI into the EU as 'EU' goods - no import tax on goods moving within the single market. The profits from that will be substantial and the bulk of the fraud will occur in the ROI - hence not a UK problem.

Had the EU not weaponised the Irish border question, I suspect a workable solution could have been found before now. As it is, I suspect the EU is in the process of creating a major headache for itself. Which is a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot.

Wordsmith
 
Juncker and Varadkar; no hard border - under any circumstances - in the event of a no deal Brexit:

Roughly, why is the EU potentially jeopardising Brexit negotiations over the border issue, when if the negotiations fail, they're not going to put a border there anyway? So why don't they compromise a little on it?

Because they are trying to force a united Irelabd.
 
There will however eventually be a quasi-hard border on the Irish side. The UK - if it has any sense - will chop import duties to zero on anything we don't actually manufacture or grow in the UK. For example, we don't grow bananas, so why have an import tax on them? Similarly, we no longer manufacture tungsten power in the the UK, so why have an import duty on it?

Goods with zero import duties will be significantly cheaper than the equivalent imported into the EU with EU import tarrifs on it, so I expect there will be substantial smuggling from NI into the ROI, then re-export of goods from the ROI into the EU as 'EU' goods - no import tax on goods moving within the single market. The profits from that will be substantial and the bulk of the fraud will occur in the ROI - hence not a UK problem.

Had the EU not weaponised the Irish border question, I suspect a workable solution could have been found before now. As it is, I suspect the EU is in the process of creating a major headache for itself. Which is a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot.

Wordsmith
On the part of your post I put in bold - God yes. Get out of all EU restrictions and do it the day after Brexit.

In terms of the smuggling that would result from NI to Eire, agreed. But I doubt it would be on a level to bother the technocrats in Brussels - it is a red-herring.

Sadly May still seems to be going down an appeasement route rather than playing hardball on this issue.
 
The great new strategy...The EU appear to be amenable, they are just waiting for a realistic plan, whilst brexiteers can't blame anyone now for the diabolical mess that they have caused except a daft 'old bag' who promised to deliver their impossible dreams.

Mongs?....no, that would be an insult to mongs.
 
There will however eventually be a quasi-hard border on the Irish side. The UK - if it has any sense - will chop import duties to zero on anything we don't actually manufacture or grow in the UK. For example, we don't grow bananas, so why have an import tax on them? Similarly, we no longer manufacture tungsten power in the the UK, so why have an import duty on it?

Goods with zero import duties will be significantly cheaper than the equivalent imported into the EU with EU import tarrifs on it, so I expect there will be substantial smuggling from NI into the ROI, then re-export of goods from the ROI into the EU as 'EU' goods - no import tax on goods moving within the single market. The profits from that will be substantial and the bulk of the fraud will occur in the ROI - hence not a UK problem.

Had the EU not weaponised the Irish border question, I suspect a workable solution could have been found before now. As it is, I suspect the EU is in the process of creating a major headache for itself. Which is a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot.

Wordsmith
Swapping your auto and agricole industries for cheap tungsten powder and bananas seems a fair exchange.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I made four comments, two of which nearly ten years ago but apparently that is what you wish to discuss rather the point I made.

Can you not see there is something seriously wrong with you? Rather than ignore the post I made about changing demographics, or even make a half-coherent reply, you've decided to talk about these four posts I made, two of which are nearly ten years old.

And pleased to see your use of champ and fella in no way shows that you're upset. Nope, not at all. One can only imagine you're one of those tragic belters who puts RE after surname.
just admit you've been a d*ck and grow from this.

you got a little excited with @Baglock, or his alias, at the time and got a bit silly.

That is all.
 

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