Brexit Phase Two - Trade

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Now they’ve called for TM to find her inner Boudicca. I think that’s a terrible idea, Boudicca got lucky, then took part in a disastrous campaign and killed herself.
That’s no way to express support for the Prime Minister.
 
Now they’ve called for TM to find her inner Boudicca. I think that’s a terrible idea, Boudicca got lucky, then took part in a disastrous campaign and killed herself.
That’s no way to express support for the Prime Minister.
After she got (in this case, figuratively) raped by members of her own party and cabinet.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
After she got (in this case, figuratively) raped by members of her own party and cabinet.
An ongoing process.

Eight Cabinet ministers with concerns over May's Brexit backstop at Andrea Leadsom's 'pizza summit'
Eight Cabinet ministers with concerns about Theresa May's Brexit plans attended a "pizza summit" in the Commons amid mounting pressure on the Prime Minister. Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the Commons and one of the most significant critics of the Prime Minister's customs union backstop, hosted the meeting in her Commons office on Monday evening.

The scale of the summit and seniority of those who attended is likely to concern Downing Street ahead of a crunch Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. They included Ms Leadsom, Dominic Raab, the Brexit Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, the Foreign Secretary, Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the International Development Secretary, Chris Grayling, Transport Secretary...
As Samuel Johnson said, "When a man knows he is to be hanged...it concentrates his mind wonderfully". The Tory party as a whole knows Chequers won't make it through the Commons, so May is now coming under immense pressure to switch to Chequers Plus - which may well do so.

The Tory party is not going to let May's obstinacy lead to a near certain hard Brexit if it can be avoided - as such, she is now under attack from all quarters. It is also noticeable that the Remain wing of the party are not supporting May. I suspect they also regard Canada Plus as better than a hard Brexit.

May is now increasingly friendless and - in Norman Lamont's phrase "in office but not in power". And it is all a self-inflicted wound. May had no need to get into this position.

Stupid woman.

Wordsmith
 
An ongoing process.

Eight Cabinet ministers with concerns over May's Brexit backstop at Andrea Leadsom's 'pizza summit'


As Samuel Johnson said, "When a man knows he is to be hanged...it concentrates his mind wonderfully". The Tory party as a whole knows Chequers won't make it through the Commons, so May is now coming under immense pressure to switch to Chequers Plus - which may well do so.

The Tory party is not going to let May's obstinacy lead to a near certain hard Brexit if it can be avoided - as such, she is now under attack from all quarters. It is also noticeable that the Remain wing of the party are not supporting May. I suspect they also regard Canada Plus as better than a hard Brexit.

May is now increasingly friendless and - in Norman Lamont's phrase "in office but not in power". And it is all a self-inflicted wound. May had no need to get into this position.

Stupid woman.

Wordsmith

Of course, this could all be planned pantomime, to create an illusion of effort so people are not to upset when we get an inevitable soft Brexit.
 
Now they’ve called for TM to find her inner Boudicca. I think that’s a terrible idea, Boudicca got lucky, then took part in a disastrous campaign and killed herself.
That’s no way to express support for the Prime Minister.
Perhaps they're geeing her up to do in Brussels tomorrow what Boudicca is supposed to have done in Colchester, St Albans and London! Can't see it myself.
 
Were you also present on the grassy knoll when the shot was fired in Dallas?

I commend Occam's Razor to you.

Wordsmith
You think it's far fetched that this isn't in part, Tory Party image management?

Despite leaks that TM was planning to walk out of Brexit negotiations to give UK voters the impression she was being tough, the EU also playing up her performance for UK domestic consumption etc etc, so if that other stuff has been done for the purpose of image management, what makes you think this isn't?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
You think it's far fetched that this isn't in part, Tory Party image management?

Despite leaks that TM was planning to walk out of Brexit negotiations to give UK voters the impression she was being tough, the EU also playing up her performance for UK domestic consumption etc etc, so if that other stuff has been done for the purpose of image management, what makes you think this isn't?
This is real life - not a novel.

And given the leaks that inevitably come from both sides during a negotiation, do you really think such collusion could be kept secret? We regularly get leaks about what's going on within Cabinet and within the EU councils.

Your hypothesis would require about 50 - 100 politicians to keep a secret - a vanishingly small probability.

Wordsmith
 
This is real life - not a novel.

And given the leaks that inevitably come from both sides during a negotiation, do you really think such collusion could be kept secret? We regularly get leaks about what's going on within Cabinet and within the EU councils.

Your hypothesis would require about 50 - 100 politicians to keep a secret - a vanishingly small probability.

Wordsmith


We've already had the collusions I mentioned. That's not a novel Wordsmith, this is real life and already happening mate, it's been reported - if you read beyond ARRSE, you'll see.

Also you're making the assumption that there won't be any further leaks (or that the leak must happen immediately/prior to the event, which is untypical).

And its simply naive of you to claim a few ministers meeting to kick up a fuss over pizza, to give the impression to their voters that they tried to do something is far fetched.

And for your own enlightenment - think of it as the red pill for understanding peoples behaviour in social interactions: Games People Play (book) - Wikipedia
 
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skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Were you also present on the grassy knoll when the shot was fired in Dallas?

I commend Occam's Razor to you.

Wordsmith
Occam’s razor I’m taking nothing for granted where you’re concerned. ‘Occams razor’. ‘Lex persamoniae’
‘The simplest solution tends to be the right one’

Having got this far and caused so much harm to the country. Then ditching brexit seems like a perfectly sensible idea............not to mention the simplest solution.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
And its simply naive of you to claim a few ministers meeting to kick up a fuss over pizza, to give the impression to their voters that they tried to do something is far fetched.
The far simpler explanation is that the ministers are concerned about May's bone-headed insistence on Chequers and are meeting to discuss ways of persuading her to change course by adopting a common approach in Cabinet.

Just as the ERG are trying a different route to pressure her by publicly floating the idea of a leadership challenge - which may (or may not) be linked to news of the meeting between assorted cabinet ministers depending on the degree of contact between the ERG and individual cabinet ministers.

No need for complicated collusion and conspiracy theories - there are easier explanations.

Wordsmith
 
The far simpler explanation is that the ministers are concerned about May's bone-headed insistence on Chequers and are meeting to discuss ways of persuading her to change course by adopting a common approach in Cabinet.

Just as the ERG are trying a different route to pressure her by publicly floating the idea of a leadership challenge - which may (or may not) be linked to news of the meeting between assorted cabinet ministers depending on the degree of contact between the ERG and individual cabinet ministers.

No need for complicated collusion and conspiracy theories - there are easier explanations.

Wordsmith
Then if they are simply concerned, what is at least part of their motivation for letting the press know about it and going public do you think?..
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Then if they are simply concerned, what is at least part of their motivation for letting the press know about it and going public do you think?..
Jesus H. I gave you credit for understanding nuances. Here is the Janet and John version.

Much of the Conservative Party desperately want May to adopt Canada Plus as her preferred strategy - thus giving the best chance of avoiding a hard Brexit. As a result multiple forms of pressure are being applied to get her to change tack - some coordinated; some not.

Wordsmith
 
Jesus H. I gave you credit for understanding nuances. Here is the Janet and John version.

Much of the Conservative Party desperately want May to adopt Canada Plus as her preferred strategy - thus giving the best chance of avoiding a hard Brexit. As a result multiple forms of pressure are being applied to get her to change tack - some coordinated; some not.

Wordsmith

I think you're missing the point - if you don't think politics is also largely image management, then you are naive. Extremely naive. But there you go, that's what you're claiming - image management doesn't figure into this story in the slightest.

It's figured everywhere else, from the reporting of May's conduct during EU negotiations, and even down to members of the Tory party being coached on how to stand, but not here. Nope, nope, no sireee, it's just as they tells us.
 
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Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I think you're missing the point - if you don't think politics is also largely image management, then you are naive. Extremely naive. But there you go, that's what you're claiming - image management doesn't figure into this story in the slightest.
Really?

No amount of image management will prevent the (wo)man on the Clapham omnibus noticing whether we have conducted a soft or a hard Brexit or the impact of that outcome on their living standards.

Although image management/spin have an impact, ultimately people vote on the pound in their pocket. In this instance, the Tories chances in the 2022 GE will depend on the impact Brexit had on living standards - a neutral or positive effect and they'll be re-elected; a significantly negative one and they're out of power.

No amount of image management will change that fundamental.

Wordsmith
 
Really?

No amount of image management will prevent the (wo)man on the Clapham omnibus noticing whether we have conducted a soft or a hard Brexit or the impact of that outcome on their living standards.

Although image management/spin have an impact, ultimately people vote on the pound in their pocket. In this instance, the Tories chances in the 2022 GE will depend on the impact Brexit had on living standards - a neutral or positive effect and they'll be re-elected; a significantly negative one and they're out of power.

No amount of image management will change that fundamental.

Wordsmith

Great we are on the same page I think. Whilst they may care about Brexit, I personally think the main motivation for this is image management to be seen as if they are doing something. You think image management is a small motivation, and their main motivation is they care about Brexit and want us as far from the EU as possible.

It seems we're not that much in disagreement at all :)
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Whoops.

The 27 EU leaders will not even consider a trade deal with Britain at the “moment of truth” EU summit in Brussels tomorrow, following the collapse of talks on the Irish border this weekend. The shock revelation, confirmed by senior EU diplomats familiar with preparations for the meeting, shows the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit as Theresa May travels to the EU capital in a bid to save her project.

Brussels has long insisted a trade deal can only be considered once withdrawal issues like the Irish border are settled. The agreement on the withdrawal agreement, the Irish backstop, would trigger the delivery of the outline of the joint political declaration.
So May can't get a deal from Brussels unless she caves in on the Irish border and she can't get a deal through Westminster if she does.

Catch 22 strikes again.

Wordsmith
 
Whoops.



So May can't get a deal from Brussels unless she caves in on the Irish border and she can't get a deal through Westminster if she does.

Catch 22 strikes again.

Wordsmith
So the day after we leave with no deal do you think it will be Leo putting in the border or will Brussels have to do it and run it themselves .( genuine question by the way).
 
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