Brexit Phase Two - Trade

It's a delicious mental image - Brotherton Lad saying"

"I'm sorry Tovarishch, but the people of Western Europe were taken in by the fake news of NATO telling them that the intentions of the Russian Army were less than peacefull. As such, I must apologies for NATO not allowing you to seen 150 divisions on a peaceful exercise across west Europe.

I must also apologise for NATO not allowing the rouble to become the common currency for Europe and for refusing to move the seat of the European Parliament to Moscow.

"I can't grovel enough comrade, but if we wait and see, I'm sure they'll come to their senses."

Wordsmith :smile:

I thought you were a fantasist.
May is increasingly reminding me of the Colonel in "Bridge on the River Kwai" who became so obsessed with building the bridge, he forgot he was aiding the Japanese.

I think May is so obsessed with getting Chequers through, she's lost all sense of perspective on the issue.
Can we start whistling soon.


Book Reviewer
No Deal: The economic consequences & how they could be mitigated | Open Europe

Exhaustive report by OpenEurope concludes a No-Deal Brexit will have little effect on the UK. Our GDP will still be over 30% higher by 2030 than it is today and any minor drag on growth could be mitigated by trade liberalisation.

From your link. Open Europe are generally fairly realistic in their analysis, flagging the good along with the bad.
The modelling suggests that the cumulative effects of a No Deal Brexit would see the UK’s real GDP growing overall but with the economy 2.2% smaller in real terms by 2030 than would have otherwise been the case. Unilateral liberalisation would see the UK recover up to 1.7% of that reduction in real GDP over the same period, with the net effect leaving UK real GDP 0.5% lower in 2030 than would have otherwise been the case.
In other words, if properly handled, a hard Brexit will have an insignificant negative impact on the UK's growth.

Although to be fair, we will probably grow a little faster if we do secure a trade deal.

But strangely enough, the sky won't fall in after a hard Brexit.

Thought provoking. The Cabinet revolted against May when it got a firm legal opinion that we could not exit the customs union stop gap after Brexit without the EU's consent - which potentially could have been withheld indefinitely.

That points to a major failure on behalf of the UK's negotiators in Brussels. Either they were incompetent and didn't spot the legal implications, or they were prepared to sell Britain's long term interests down the river to get an agreement.

Either alternative is deeply disturbing.

Well here's a thought. I'm not that versed in the 1922 Agreement but could limits of credulity be stretched to arguing that since it gives Irish citizens the right to vote in UK and the right to move on what is in effect an internal border, that it is a devolved area of the UK? Given that the The EU accepted the CTA when we joined as it was an agreement between two formerly joined countries. Besides AIUI art 49 is for joining. Suddenly no deal becomes more appealing.
I'm not quite sure why you even bother posting.

I do understand that you see your personal pipe-dream collapsing before your very eyes, though.

PS, mind your spillung.
Why do you bother posting? You never say anything.
You know all about my dreams do you?
My spillung's OK, how's yore reeding?
Your flailing's getting more and more frantic.


Book Reviewer
Brexit is imploding in front of your eyes.

It looks like - due to EU intransigence - we may be exiting via a no deal Brexit. That will probably benefit the UK in the long term.

And if you bothered to read the Open Europe Report flagged by another poster, you'll find it came to the conclusion a hard Brexit would have a virtually imperceptible negative effect on the UK's growth.

Care to comment on the Open Europe report? I await your insightful analysis.


Typos corrected
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