Brexit Phase Two - Trade

I suspect it may not even get to a Commons vote. If May's proposals means we won't be able to sign trade deals for an indefinite time after leaving the EU, she's going to face a cabinet revolt and enough of the ERG conspiring with the DUP and opposition to vote down her proposals.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that the Opposition are salivating over the prospect of handing May a bloody nose and forcing her resignation. If enough opposition is expressed to My's proposals, I suspect she'll wimp out of putting them to a Commons vote. If she loses it, the whole Brexit process will be in chaos and she's just ruined the Tories chances in the 2022 GE.

Not a legacy May would wish to be associated with.

Wordsmith
Do the opposition really want to force her out? Someone better could replace her. I'm sure there's someone out there.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
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What am I wrong about? Trouble is you don’t have an argument and just like TM and her light weights your hanging on for grim death for a “good deal” .

There won’t be a deal because the EU don’t want us to have one, they want us to to drive over the cliff and end up on our knees . What part of that don’t you understand?
I think you are correct, up to a point. The ones that don't want a deal are the EU commission - the professional EUers; the MS are not 100% of the same mind IMO, and there is going to be friction there before long.

This is not about Brexit to the commission, this is purely ideology and they are prepared to sacrifice trade for this ideal. Our trouble is May not being able, or willing, to recognise that and dealing with the EU as a normal negotiating partner. Barnier should have been told to fornicate off when he started is endless "Non" responses and the EU told that they negotiate or it is off. A bit too late for that but the UK tone has changed since Salzburg where PMTM got a huge shock at the response to her plans. Since then the UK has been treating the negotiations as something started do must be finished but actually we are working towards hard brexit. This has finally brought the EU to actually negotiate, but again, I think they have missed the boat and the chance of genuine and meaningful discussions have gone. Nothing substantive will happen until Barnier is withdrawn as EU chief negotiator.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Do the opposition really want to force her out? Someone better could replace her. I'm sure there's someone out there.
If the opposition force her out after a major Commons defeat, there will be calls for an early general election. In such circumstances, Labour would be expected to gain. And the SNP might regain some of the seats they lost to the Conservatives in the 2017 GE.

Rest assured, if the opposition can engineer a defeat for May, they will do so.

Wordsmith
 
If the opposition force her out after a major Commons defeat, there will be calls for an early general election. In such circumstances, Labour would be expected to gain. And the SNP might regain some of the seats they lost to the Conservatives in the 2017 GE.

Rest assured, if the opposition can engineer a defeat for May, they will do so.

Wordsmith
I think its a gamble worth taking - in the last 6 months Jeremy Corbyn has amply proved he's a treasonous, anti-semetic cretin with a party split just as much, if not more, than the Tories, Nicola Sturgeon is a busted flush up here in Scotland with a very large minority of her own supporters not backing her attempts to stay in the EU, the LimpDems have made zero traction and UKIP are going nowhere - in circumstances like this, Joe Voter either votes for the status quo or doesn't turn out.

And to cap it all the Tories wont make the same mistake again by putting forward the worst candidate in living memory, with the worlds worst manifesto and allowing dear old Jezza to literally promise the world to the 'yoof' without any intention or ability to pay for it all! - I would also expect the EU to try to do an 'Obama' and interfere with the election which would backfire in the same way it did with David Cameron for the Brexit vote.
 
The only ticket that can win the next GE for the Tories is a sheaf of established trade deals outside the EU. And the only way to get these is to bang out totally in March next year.
In those circumstances, the EU will sign a trade deal. Both sides are now waiting for an existential crisis to try and force the other's hand.
 
The only ticket that can win the next GE for the Tories is a sheaf of established trade deals outside the EU. And the only way to get these is to bang out totally in March next year.
I suspect most of those are already in hand.

Most will be carry on as we have been until we regotiate at a later date when the dust settles.

Others will be signed more quickly. Bilateral trade deals go through a hell of a lot quicker.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I think its a gamble worth taking - in the last 6 months Jeremy Corbyn has amply proved he's a treasonous, anti-semetic cretin with a party split just as much, if not more, than the Tories, Nicola Sturgeon is a busted flush up here in Scotland with a very large minority of her own supporters not backing her attempts to stay in the EU, the LimpDems have made zero traction and UKIP are going nowhere - in circumstances like this, Joe Voter either votes for the status quo or doesn't turn out..
May went into the 2017 GE against Corbyn with an initial 20% lead in the opinion polls and still managed to lose 20 odd seats.

If there is a GE after a major commons defeat for May, the Tories will have to go into that GE with her as leader - there would simply not be enough time to elect a new leader and get a new manifesto in place.

May leading the Tories into a GE after a major Brexit defeat in the commons would probably result in them losing 100 seats and a Corbyn government.

Wordsmith
 
May went into the 2017 GE against Corbyn with an initial 20% lead in the opinion polls and still managed to lose 20 odd seats.

If there is a GE after a major commons defeat for May, the Tories will have to go into that GE with her as leader - there would simply not be enough time to elect a new leader and get a new manifesto in place.

May leading the Tories into a GE after a major Brexit defeat in the commons would probably result in them losing 100 seats and a Corbyn government.

Wordsmith
Quite a lot of the analysis of voter intention in the last GE wasn’t down to anything brexit related. As far as the public we’re concerned at the time Brexit was a done deal .

The swing appeared to be related to normal political swings of voter intentions.

What we have now is a rather important constitutional issue being used as a political football for short term party political gain.

Labours head shed doesn’t give a toss about brexit. They’re more interested in trying to bring down a PM for political gain.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Yep, remaINers need to get more positive.
Enough. I’ve been positive from day one. Positive that brexit is a stunningly expensive, pointless waste of time.

You disagree, if it’s such a great thing, how come we can’t even keep the mercenaries on board. Or even carry the majority of the cabinet.

Brexit is now in such bad shape that we’ve gone from.
‘The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want’.

To ‘there’s more to life than money’.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
If you had have read my posts on Italy over the last 6 months or so, you would have been well ahead of the curve. :smile:

Personally, I think this will blow up into a mini-crisis some time soon. The ECB will then step in to calm the markets and provide some support to the Italian banks. The tin can will then have been kicked for 6 - 12 months, but when the crisis returns the problems will be far more serious.

Even if Italy were to chop its spending back as the EU is demanding, it's economy is still fornicated - courtesy of the euro. All it will do is postpone the inevitable financial crisis and default.

Wordsmith
Italy noisy and irrelevant. Over 60 changes in government since the end of ww2 and still they carry on, carrying. They may shout and scream and be all Italian, but they aren’t (and haven’t been) stupid enough to bring the house down around them.
You’re missing the obvious again.
 
Italy noisy and irrelevant. Over 60 changes in government since the end of ww2 and still they carry on, carrying. They may shout and scream and be all Italian, but they aren’t (and haven’t been) stupid enough to bring the house down around them.
You’re missing the obvious again.

Really?

Italy is in the G7 and has the 9th largest global economy that's been locked in a downward spiral for over a decade thanks to the Euro
 

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