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Brexit Phase Two - Trade

No deal followed by a hard brexit.
The UK does over 40% of it's trade with the EU
The EU does 8% of it's trade with the UK
Who is going to suffer?

BTW if the UK defaults on the divorce bill promptly destroys the UK's credit rating and apart from the pound dropping like a stone it meas the UK has ZERO chance of doing any trade deals with anyone (other than the India who want freedom of movment with any trade deal).

Al the EU has to do is sit and wait for a month.
And, that 8 percent includes 20 percent of all cars built in Germany, that's the problem with quoting percentages, it doesn't tell you the shitty bits ! It would also include lots of 'White Goods' from Italy and Germany!

What you have to take into account is, 40 percent of a little, is a lot less than 8 percent of shitloads, moneywise!

Work it out for yourself, that little gem came from a City Analyst, over 20 years ago, he was a lot more erudite than I.
 
Pretty much. They sit around in here daisy-chaining each other and sharing stories from the Express and the Telegraph until they're sated.
You could try discussing trade for a start bellend instead of sneering the usual crap in here. I understand the problem of posting on a trade thread when you have nothing t contribute on trade . However if you need to vent your spleen do it in the brexit consiquences thread where non of the grown ups go anymore because you have nothing new or interesting to say.
And that goes for baglocks alter ego as well.
Mods get a grip
 
From Theresa May's speech last night:
'At this late stage in the negotiations, it is not acceptable to simply reject the other side’s proposals without a detailed explanation and counter proposals.'
The only reason we're at this 'late stage' now is because the UK has spent the last two years trying to put together something resembling an agreed position, before settling on the flawed chequers proposals. All this wasted time, yet now it's the EU's fault for turning down proposals which would clearly undermine the EU's single market, and which she has been told is a big red line for the EU since the whole sorry saga began.

The EU has thrown Theresa May a lifeline politically by rejecting Chequers and doing it in the way they did. It has allowed her to discard Chequers, take the high ground and unite her party. Let`s see what she does. Hanging on to Chequers will be very risky for her now.
The whole point of any negotiations, is to have valid input from both sides!

What we have from Juencker et al. is, "La Response est NON! Quelle est la Question!"

The EU team (I refuse to justify it by using the word negotiating), have been dismissive since day one, May hit the nail on the head, when she talked about rejecting proposals, with no counter proposal.
 
Regardless, the European discard rules when it suits.

I'd int and sy info cooperation is guaranteed by NATO why would the European fear it s withdrawal and why would David mention it as a benefit of membership?
Remember, that according to David Cameron it was the EU that was responsible for the 3rd shock army withdrawing.
 
The whole point of any negotiations, is to have valid input from both sides!

What we have from Juencker et al. is, "La Response est NON! Quelle est la Question!"

The EU team (I refuse to justify it by using the word negotiating), have been dismissive since day one, May hit the nail on the head, when she talked about rejecting proposals, with no counter proposal.
The EU team is surging in coordination with Blair, Clegg and Sorros.
 
Our Government has got form for awful negotiation tactics of late and it has never worked, and now it is obvious that not only did May have only bad tactics, but she had no strategy at all.

This indicates a failure of intelligence (both kinds) on the part of the U.K. and also an indication that the EU really do want to move things along and don’t particularly care what the U.K. do. also, they probably calculate that the U.K. won’t shoot itself when it finally comes to it. However, this does increase the likelihood of a No Deal Brexit even more.

Most of youon this thread that keep getting all upset are still looking at it from a UK-centric perspective , placing the onus on the EU to accommodate you in their grand ambitions to rekindle the British Empire.
 
And, that 8 percent includes 20 percent of all cars built in Germany, that's the problem with quoting percentages, it doesn't tell you the shitty bits ! It would also include lots of 'White Goods' from Italy and Germany!

What you have to take into account is, 40 percent of a little, is a lot less than 8 percent of shitloads, moneywise!

Work it out for yourself, that little gem came from a City Analyst, over 20 years ago, he was a lot more erudite than I.
I think as well that you have to look past the headlines. If you don't then it sounds like overnight the UK will have a 40% sized hole. In fact because we don't live in a socialist utopia UK based companies can decide to either raise their prices if they have to pay new tariffs or they can source cheaper ones elsewhere. Customers can decide who to give their money to. If gaps appear then new companies will emerge to take advantage of them.

Eg with the sensational nonsense about BMW shutting down their UK business for a month of the first day of Brexit. When in fact they are simply moving their annual month-long maintenance shutdown to the first day after Brexit

The market will decide what happens in the long term, short term upheaval will create massive opportunities for those with the desire. The same thing has happened with every boom and bust.

The media/hard remainers seem to be under the impression that after a hard Brexit, companies will simply decide they no longer like money and will stop trading in the UK
 
I think as well that you have to look past the headlines. If you don't then it sounds like overnight the UK will have a 40% sized hole. In fact because we don't live in a socialist utopia UK based companies can decide to either raise their prices if they have to pay new tariffs or they can source cheaper ones elsewhere. Customers can decide who to give their money to. If gaps appear then new companies will emerge to take advantage of them.

Eg with the sensational nonsense about BMW shutting down their UK business for a month of the first day of Brexit. When in fact they are simply moving their annual month-long maintenance shutdown to the first day after Brexit

The market will decide what happens in the long term, short term upheaval will create massive opportunities for those with the desire. The same thing has happened with every boom and bust.

The media/hard remainers seem to be under the impression that after a hard Brexit, companies will simply decide they no longer like money and will stop trading in the UK
Indeed.
I don't recall which one of the belters in the early days of the Brexit threads came out with, "The EU won't bother trading with the UK, they will fill the void with other world markets........"
They were put out when reliably informed that if other markets existed, the EU would already be exploiting them.

What the EU do realise is that we will be in direct competition with them, which I find rather exciting!
Huzzah, brave Brexiteers!
 
)
Most of youon this thread that keep getting all upset......
Hello kettle, pot calling, over?

The idea that rest of the world is just chomping at the bit to give the United Kingdom what it wants for nothing is a self-delusion.

Other nations who slammed their door on the EU will slam their door on Little Britain as well.

Anyone who voted leave has voted to make our country nothing more than a small island that no one really listens to.

Clearly English nationalism is not dead on this thread alone. Look how upset you all have gotten at me offering a different narrative. It’s causing some right hissy fits.

I was not as easily fooled by themes such as "sovereignty" and "taking back control". How dare I engage a bit of intelligence.

The 20+ year long anti-EU campaign by the right wing cheap larger drinkers has also convinced many of the "Evil EU Empire" meme.

How stupid are you Brexiteers to think that leaving the European Union means controlling the European Union from the outside?

The Westminster gravy train has been well and truly boosted by people like you voting for these Conservatives to improve their feudalist credentials at the expense of your own jingoism.

I wonder how many new taxes us Joe Slobs are going to have to pay to enjoy that pressure ... or pleasure if you're a masochist.

Fair enough if you want to believe the United Kingdom is the special snowflake in the world when compared to the deals the EU has gotten with forty non-EU nations around the world.

Oh and @British_And_Proud brexit has done more for the ridiculous notion of a UI than the shinners ever could.

Death by a 1000 paper cuts mate. You think this lot of right wing fan boys give a f*ck about Ulster?
I'm sure a crying baby pic is now inserted here?
 
The idea that rest of the world is just chomping at the bit to give the United Kingdom what it wants for nothing is a self-delusion.

Other nations who slammed their door on the EU will slam their door on Little Britain as well.

Anyone who voted leave has voted to make our country nothing more than a small island that no one really listens to.

Clearly English nationalism is not dead on this thread alone. Look how upset you all have gotten at me offering a different narrative. It’s causing some right hissy fits.

I was not as easily fooled by themes such as "sovereignty" and "taking back control". How dare I engage a bit of intelligence.

The 20+ year long anti-EU campaign by the right wing cheap larger drinkers has also convinced many of the "Evil EU Empire" meme.

How stupid are you Brexiteers to think that leaving the European Union means controlling the European Union from the outside?

The Westminster gravy train has been well and truly boosted by people like you voting for these Conservatives to improve their feudalist credentials at the expense of your own jingoism.

I wonder how many new taxes us Joe Slobs are going to have to pay to enjoy that pressure ... or pleasure if you're a masochist.

Fair enough if you want to believe the United Kingdom is the special snowflake in the world when compared to the deals the EU has gotten with forty non-EU nations around the world.

Oh and @British_And_Proud brexit has done more for the ridiculous notion of a UI than the shinners ever could.

Death by a 1000 paper cuts mate. You think this lot of right wing fan boys give a f*ck about Ulster?
image.jpg
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
The EU team (I refuse to justify it by using the word negotiating), have been dismissive since day one, May hit the nail on the head, when she talked about rejecting proposals, with no counter proposal.
The EU is negotiating for its short term survival. As repeatedly pointed out, the single market is in fact a protectionist one with high import tariffs designed to keep more efficient manufacturers out of the European market.

European Commission : Market Access database : EU Tariffs

If the UK becomes a conduit for lower cost goods to enter the EU, a lot of European manufacturers are going to be really fecked.

I said short term survival, because the next recession is going to change the EU beyond all recognition. Greece is sure to default on its debt; Italy almost certain to follow, throwing the eurozone into crisis.

The only way the EU can hope to avoid that is for another treaty before the next recession hits. If the UK is allowed to exit the EU without any pain, other countries may decide that exiting the EU is a better bet that signing away even more power to Brussels.

(In any event, a new treaty is a non-starter: it has to be unanimous - and too many countries are opposed to ceding more power to Brussels).

The EU is negotiating an an attempt to secure its own survival - although it would never dare to say that publicly. As such, I have always thought a hard Brexit a likely outcome of the talks.

All the EU demands (such as for the UK to keep EU law on the statute books and remain in the jurisdiction of the ECJ) are designed to tie the UK's hands after Brexit. For the EU to save the euro, its needs centrally imposed regulations and probably a higher level of taxation. If the UK goes the other way (low tax/low regulation) and prospers as a result, it'll be yet another disincentive for EU member states to approve a new treaty.

As such, the EU has no intention of negotiating an equitable exit for the UK from the EU - everything it is asking for is focused around trying to ensure its own survival.

Wordsmith
 
Indeed.
I don't recall which one of the belters in the early days of the Brexit threads came out with, "The EU won't bother trading with the UK, they will fill the void with other world markets........"
That seems to be a line from @Graculus amd wholly believed by @Baglock.

@One_of_the_strange limits himself to making outlandish claims that without the EU, gravity will no longer work and electrons will flow in the opposite direction
 
Hello kettle, pot calling, over?



I'm sure a crying baby pic is now inserted here?
You can smell the hurt.
Still, there is always the "People's vote" to look forward to, falling in behind Blair, Adonis, Lammy, Chukka, Clegg, Subrey, Cable, Mandelson and Soros. Other Ne'er-do-wells are available.
You would think that the characters in favour of this vote would be a clue that 'something is rotten in the state of Denmark'.
 
The EU is negotiating for its short term survival. As repeatedly pointed out, the single market is in fact a protectionist one with high import tariffs designed to keep more efficient manufacturers out of the European market.

European Commission : Market Access database : EU Tariffs

If the UK becomes a conduit for lower cost goods to enter the EU, a lot of European manufacturers are going to be really fecked.

I said short term survival, because the next recession is going to change the EU beyond all recognition. Greece is sure to default on its debt; Italy almost certain to follow, throwing the eurozone into crisis.

The only way the EU can hope to avoid that is for another treaty before the next recession hits. If the UK is allowed to exit the EU without any pain, other countries may decide that exiting the EU is a better bet that signing away even more power to Brussels.

(In any event, a new treaty is a non-starter: it has to be unanimous - and too many countries are opposed to ceding more power to Brussels).

The EU is negotiating an an attempt to secure its own survival - although it would never dare to say that publicly. As such, I have always thought a hard Brexit a likely outcome of the talks.

All the EU demands (such as for the UK to keep EU law on the statute books and remain in the jurisdiction of the ECJ) are designed to tie the UK's hands after Brexit. For the EU to save the euro, its needs centrally imposed regulations and probably a higher level of taxation. If the UK goes the other way (low tax/low regulation) and prospers as a result, it'll be yet another disincentive for EU member states to approve a new treaty.

As such, the EU has no intention of negotiating an equitable exit for the UK from the EU - everything it is asking for is focused around trying to ensure its own survival.

Wordsmith
Exactly. And that's why the EU are wanting to punish and make it difficult for the UK to exercise its democratic right to leave the EU.
They've played it wrong. They should have kept us on side. We'd have probably stilled paid in then. But now it's looking likely we'll hunt for our own trade.
 
Indeed.
I don't recall which one of the belters in the early days of the Brexit threads came out with, "The EU won't bother trading with the UK, they will fill the void with other world markets........"
That seems to be a line from @Graculus amd wholly believed by @Baglock.

@One_of_the_strange limits himself to making outlandish claims that without the EU, gravity will no longer work and electrons will flow in the opposite direction
 
Exactly. And that's why the EU are wanting to punish and make it difficult for the UK to exercise its democratic right to leave the EU.
They've played it wrong. They should have kept us on side. We'd have probably stilled paid in then. But now it's looking likely we'll hunt for our own trade.
I have no wish to hurt the MS of the EU by Brexit, however, I hope it destroys the EU leaders. We joined a Common Market, not a political construct. We were lied to and people should swing for that alone.... metaphorically speaking, of course.
 
[QUOTE="RoofRat, ! It would also include lots of 'White Goods' from Italy and Germany! I.[/QUOTE]

Just like France, most white goods all made in China! and flogged to their own domestic markets and to the EU.

Don't trust the 'Made in Germany' 'Made in France' etc etc. I often walk the Chinese assemble lines, and see parts made for assembly elsewhere, it's all a big conn!.
 

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